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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USD/JPY - Bearish breakdown signals further downside potential!The USD/JPY pair has been experiencing a clear daily downtrend, characterized by a bearish market structure and strong downward momentum. Sellers have remained in control, pushing prices lower as the pair continues to respect the prevailing bearish trend. With each failed attempt at recovery, the market structure reinforces the dominance of sellers, signaling that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Despite this overall downtrend, the 4-hour timeframe recently exhibited a rising channel, where price action formed higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a temporary bullish retracement within the larger bearish structure. However, this channel has now been broken, signaling a potential shift back toward the primary trend. A break of this nature often suggests that the bullish correction has exhausted its strength, and sellers are regaining control to push the price lower once again. Following the breakdown of this rising channel, the price has failed to reclaim previous highs, instead forming a lower high—a strong indication that bearish pressure is resuming. Given this development, there is a significant possibility that USD/JPY could retrace toward key technical levels, such as the Golden Pocket (between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels) or even the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 145.00. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
33
NFP beats but focus is fixated on trade warToday’s NFP report was NEVER going to take much attention away from the trade war – and so it has proved with mixed readings. US rates were being priced lower amid deteriorating trade war risks, which remains the main focal point. Powell is up next, while CPI, PPI and UoM surveys all on tap next week. The nonfarm payrolls data beat expectations, with a headline print of 228K. Most of those gains were in full-time jobs. But the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1% unexpectedly. Market’s focus is on trade war, and rightly so. They were never going to go wild on this NFP release. Average earnings came in as expected, rising 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, but the prior month weas revised lower a tad. Year-over-year rate was weaker 3.8% vs. 4.0%. Nothing to get too excited over, but potentially good news as far as inflation is concerned. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY Market Update – 04 April 2025The USD/JPY pair has been trending lower, reflecting recent weakness in the US dollar and renewed strength in the Japanese yen, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. In addition, markets appear to be pricing in potential policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve, contributing to recent moves. It’s worth noting that upcoming US employment data may have a significant impact on this pair, potentially increasing market volatility. From a technical standpoint, several scenarios may unfold: • The pair could approach the 146.5 area, where signs of resistance have previously emerged. If bearish momentum continues, it may revisit the 143.5 region. A break below this level could see the pair testing the psychological 140 mark – a zone that, historically, has attracted buyer interest. • Alternatively, if the price moves above the 143.7 level and establishes support, it could indicate a shift in short-term sentiment. In such a case, a potential move towards the 150 level may be observed, particularly if supported by stronger-than-expected US employment figures. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
#006 Moving Average USDJPY SELL 1644SGT 04042025Add : Shorted on the 5 Minutes Time Frame, but time frame too small to publish on tradingview, so, I posted on the 15 Minutes Time Frame instead. 1648SGT 04042025 --- Trump Tariff caused USD to get dumped yesterday. US stocks also got dumped for 6 to 7 weeks consecutively. If you look at the Daily time frame you would see the big red candle on USDJPY's dump. I was looking at opportunities on all JPY pairs, and I took a liking to USDJPY because I am expecting USD to continue to get dumped. Shorting the resistance level. If you look at price on the 1H or 4H time frame, you would realise price is in a consolidation towards the down side, and I like that. NFP and unemployment rate news coming out later in the day. in about 4 hours time. Current time is 1647SGT. Might exit before the news got released. 1647SGT 04042025
Short
by goh8888lester
The Day Ahead US Jobs & FED Powell speech US March Jobs Report Most important release this week. Strong report boosts the dollar and bond yields Weak report supports stocks and pressures the dollar Canada March Jobs Report Strong numbers lift the Canadian dollar Weak numbers weigh on CAD Germany, France, Italy Data Includes factory orders, industrial production, and retail sales Weak data puts pressure on the euro Strong data supports the euro Japan February Household Spending Low spending signals continued Bank of Japan easing, weakens the yen Higher spending may support the yen UK March Car Sales and Construction PMI Positive surprises could lift the pound Sweden March CPI Hot inflation could delay rate cuts and support the krona Cooler CPI may lead to SEK weakness Central Bank Watch Fed’s Powell and Barr Speaking Hawkish tone strengthens the dollar and lifts yields Dovish comments could boost risk assets and weaken the dollar This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
JPY/USD – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Trading Setup1. Market Structure & Technical Pattern: The Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been exhibiting a clear Rising Wedge Pattern over the past few months. This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, indicating that buying momentum is gradually weakening, and a strong decline is likely to follow. Formation of the Rising Wedge: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, confined within two converging trendlines (black lines). The lower boundary (support trendline) has been consistently acting as a dynamic support level. The upper boundary (resistance trendline) has been limiting further upward movement, indicating exhaustion of buying pressure. Breakout Confirmation: The price action tested the resistance zone multiple times but failed to sustain bullish momentum. A strong rejection from the upper resistance level led to a sharp sell-off, causing a breakdown of the support trendline. Once the price broke below the wedge, selling pressure intensified, confirming the trend reversal. 2. Key Technical Levels & Zones: Resistance Level (0.006895): The price previously struggled to break above this resistance zone, forming a strong supply area where sellers dominated. This level aligns with the upper boundary of the rising wedge, making it a significant turning point. The rejection from this zone initiated the bearish breakdown. Support Level (Broken – 0.006650): This level acted as a strong demand zone, preventing further downside movement during the wedge formation. However, once the price broke below this level, it confirmed the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. This level may now act as a new resistance (role reversal principle). Stop Loss Placement (Above 0.006895): A logical stop-loss is placed just above the resistance level to protect against a potential invalidation of the bearish setup. If the price closes above this level, the bearish thesis would be invalidated. 3. Trading Execution & Risk Management: Sell Entry Strategy: Traders looking for short positions should enter after a confirmed break below the wedge’s support. A potential pullback (retest) to the broken trendline could offer an additional shorting opportunity. The retest would confirm the previous support turning into resistance before a continuation of the downtrend. Take Profit Targets (TP1 & TP2): TP1 (0.006481): This level represents a strong demand zone where short-term buyers may step in. Traders may choose to book partial profits here. TP2 (0.006251): This is a deeper support level and the final target for this trade setup. If the price sustains bearish momentum, it is likely to reach this level before stabilizing. Risk-to-Reward Ratio Consideration: This setup offers a high probability short trade with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The stop-loss is well-defined, minimizing potential losses while maximizing profit potential. 4. Expected Price Movement & Projection: Short-term Outlook: A possible pullback to the broken wedge (previous support now acting as resistance) before continuation lower. If the price retests and rejects the 0.006650 level, expect acceleration in the downtrend. Medium-term Outlook: If the price reaches TP1 (0.006481) and breaks below, it increases the probability of hitting TP2 (0.006251). A bearish trend continuation could form, potentially leading to further downside levels. Invalidation Scenario: If the price closes above the stop-loss level (0.006895), the bearish setup is invalidated, and a bullish breakout could follow instead. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan: The rising wedge breakdown signals a shift from bullish to bearish market sentiment. Traders should look for short entries after a confirmed breakdown or wait for a pullback before executing trades. The risk-to-reward ratio makes this a strong high-probability trade setup. Following the plan with strict stop-loss placement ensures risk is controlled while maximizing profit potential. 6. Summary & Key Takeaways: ✅ Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) ✅ Breakout Direction: Downside ✅ Resistance Level: 0.006895 ✅ Support Levels: 0.006650 (broken), 0.006481 (TP1), 0.006251 (TP2) ✅ Stop-Loss Placement: Above 0.006895 ✅ Profit Targets: TP1 – 0.006481, TP2 – 0.006251 ✅ Trade Bias: Bearish
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025 USD/JPY Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025 📉 🔹 Current Price: 145.998 🔹 Timeframe: 15M 📌 Key Supply Zones (Resistance Levels): 🔴 146.667 – 146.774 – Potential reversal zone 🔴 147.330 – 147.479 – Strong resistance 📌 Key Demand Zones (Support Levels): ⚫ 145.412 – Intermediate support 🟢 144.274 – Major Demand Zone (Potential Reversal Area) 📈 Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above 146.774, it may continue towards 147.330 – 147.479 before showing signs of reversal. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from 146.667 – 146.774 could lead to a drop towards 145.412 and potentially to 144.274 demand zone. ⚡ Trading Tip: ✅ Look for price reaction at 146.667 – 146.774 for possible shorts. ✅ If price reaches 144.274, watch for bullish confirmations. ✅ Use stop-loss and risk management strategies. #FXFOREVER #USDJPY #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #PriceAction #Trading
Short
by FXFOREVER_87
USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG UPON Q2 W14 Y25 FRIDAY 4TH APRIL 2025USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG UPON Q2 W14 Y25 Weekly Orderblock long Higher time frame Exponential moving averages pulling price action We do however need to see clear breaks of structure on the 15' to really prove that price is ready to turn around this early into the weekly order block. With larger higher time frame order blocks, there will always be the concern that so many voids within are below. why does my speculation favour a pull back deeper before then looking long. For those reason, we await breaks of internal structure below looking to risk capital. More to come on this. FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
Falling towards Fibo confluence?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce tot he 1st resistance. Pivot: 143.94 1st Support: 142.19 1st Resistance: 147.13 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets