JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY(20250429)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The U.S. Treasury Department raised its second quarter debt forecast to $514 billion. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The "X Day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon.
Technical analysis:
Today's long-short boundary:
142.62
Support and resistance levels:
144.52
143.81
143.35
141.89
141.43
140.72
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 142.62, consider buying, the first target price is 143.35
If the price breaks through 141.89, consider selling, the first target price is 141.43
Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ DecisionThe Japanese yen edged closer to 144 per dollar on Monday, continuing last week’s decline as global trade sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened. Markets responded to a private meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, during which both parties stressed the importance of ongoing discussions on currency matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade negotiator is set to visit Washington this week, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5%, amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs.
Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
USD/JPY 4H Chart - Buy Entry AnalysisTrend & Momentum:
RSI (14, close) currently shows a range between -7.25 to 35.47, indicating potential oversold conditions (RSI below 30-35 often signals a reversal opportunity).
The Average YoY data suggests moderate volatility, with Q2 at 0.558 and H1 at 0.555, hinting at a stable uptrend bias.
Price Action:
Support Levels: L1 at 0.499 and C1 at 0.498 act as strong support zones. A bounce from these levels could confirm a buy signal.
Resistance Break: A0 at 0.8 (despite a slight dip of -0.025) is a key level to watch. A breakout above this with volume could reinforce bullish momentum.
Entry Strategy:
Ideal Buy Zone: Near 0.498-0.499 (L1/C1) with RSI recovering from oversold territory.
Confirmation: Wait for a 4H candle close above 0.555 (H1) or a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., hammer, engulfing).
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Below 0.498 (C1) to limit downside risk.
Targets: Initial TP at 0.555 (H1), extended TP at 0.8 (A0) if momentum sustains.
Conclusion:
USD/JPY shows a potential buy opportunity on the 4H chart, supported by oversold RSI and key support levels. Enter near 0.498-0.499 with strict risk controls, targeting a rally toward 0.555-0.8.
LONG POSITION SCALPING USD/JPY🔵 Technical Analysis for USD/JPY:
We are observing a key rebound support area at the current levels.
Entry Zone: Around 142.48
Rationale for the Trade:
Price is positioned at a strong order block area on the 1-hour timeframe.
Expecting a bullish corrective move from the current support zone.
First Target for the Correction: Aiming for the 144.00 level as an initial resistance and profit-taking area.
Stop-Loss Level: A break and close below 141.44 would invalidate the setup.
Note: Proper risk management is essential, as this is a speculative corrective move within a broader market trend.
USD/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow trading band at the start of a new week and remains close to a two-week trough touched against its American counterpart on Friday. Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, offers support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US turn out to be another factor underpinning the JPY.
Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as rising economic risks from US tariffs overshadow signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY.
USDJPY H4 I Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.09, which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 144.01, which is an overlap resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 140.89, which is a pullback support level.
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USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the booster and subscribe!
Key Points
- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC, “Since China exports five times more to the U.S. than the U.S. does to China, I believe the easing of tensions is up to China.”
- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia-kun denied Trump’s claim of a phone call with President Xi Jinping, saying, “As far as I know, there has been no phone call between the two leaders.”
- The Dallas Federal Reserve reported that the general business activity index for Texas manufacturing in April plunged by 19.5 points from the previous month to -35.8. The U.S. Treasury also announced that, excluding the impact of the debt ceiling, its second-quarter borrowing estimate would be $53 billion lower than previously forecast.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 29: U.S. March JOLTS Report
+ April 30: Germany Q1 GDP, Germany April Consumer Price Index, U.S. April ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, U.S. March Core PCE Price Index
+ May 1: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
+ May 2: Eurozone April Consumer Price Index, U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. April Unemployment Rate
USDJPY Chart Analysis
The price rose up to the 144 level but faced resistance in that zone as expected. In the short term, a small range between 140 and 144 is likely to form. With the current pullback, we expect a retest of the support level near 140. If this level holds, another upward move toward 144 can be anticipated. The future direction will be determined by whether the pair breaks out of this range to the upside or downside.
USD/JPY Bulls Charging: Can 144.88 Launch the Next Rally?Hello,
USD/JPY: Bulls Charging Up — Bigger Upside in Sight!
Current View:
USD/JPY bounced strongly from 140.00 and bulls are aiming for a bigger breakout. Momentum is building, and if key support levels hold, we could see much higher prices soon.
🔥 Why We’re Bullish:
Strong rebound from 140.00 support.
Price pushing against the 144.00 resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A break above 144.00 would unlock bigger upside potential.
Fundamentals (U.S. growth + possible BOJ disappointment) favor USD strength.
📈 Bullish Roadmap:
Level Action Next Target
144.00 Breakout and hold needed Move toward 144.881
144.881 (Important) If it holds as support, bullish continuation Rally towards 1M Pivot @ 149.266
149.266 If it holds as support, next move higher Push towards 1Y Pivot @ 152.9069
150.39–152.573 (Caution) 1M resistance zone — watch for possible pullbacks
If cleared: Full bullish extension Aim for Final Target: 155.135
🗓 Events to Watch:
BOJ Policy Meeting → Potential for yen weakness if BOJ disappoints.
U.S. GDP + Non-Farm Payrolls → Could boost USD strength.
⚡ Quick Visual Flow:
➡️ Break above 144.00 ➡️ Hold 144.881 as support ➡️ Target 149.266 ➡️ Break through resistance at 150.39–152.573 ➡️ Target 152.9069 ➡️ Final goal: 155.135
⚠️ Key Cautions:
150.39–152.573 is a major resistance area; expect possible profit-taking or heavy battles here.
If 144.881 fails to hold, short-term pullbacks to 140.00 could reappear — manage stops accordingly.
TL;DR:
✅ Bulls are strong.
✅ Watch 144.00 breakout and 144.881 support hold for bigger upside.
✅ Long-term targets: 149.266 → 152.9069 → 155.135, if major resistance breaks cleanly.
⚡ Stay updated on BOJ and U.S. data for confirmation!
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Japan's Economic Outlook: Steady Progress Amid UncertaintiesHello,
FX:USDJPY will see downside as Japanese economic data remain positive, with recovery ongoing. The BOJ's outlook appears accurate, as the economy continues to progress steadily. Although uncertainties persist, they are unlikely to prevent the BOJ from raising rates in the future. The current account surplus is now Y3.3525 trillion, with a Y2.6911 trillion surplus anticipated. December bank loans increased by 3.1% year-on-year, following rises of 2.9% in November and 2.6% in October. Robust bank loans indicate that Japan Inc is progressing smoothly. There are uncertainties regarding new US Trump administration policies in 2025. Nonetheless, the domestic economy is stable, with trade with the US being the only question. This will be a solid bearish opportunity that will unfold shortly!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
USDJPY LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Daily H&S pattern forming (Retest of the neckline)
Previous Structure point Daily
Round Psych Level 143.000
This trade has high potential to create bullish structure
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.11
Entry 90
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USD/JPY 1H Chart AnalysisStructure: Bullish, with higher highs (H1) and higher lows consistently forming.
Key Zone: A demand zone around 143.00 – 143.20. Price could pull back here for liquidity before continuing higher.
Current Price: Consolidating near 143.70 after a strong impulse.
Bias: Bullish, as long as price holds above 143.00. Watching for a possible dip into demand before resuming the uptrend toward 144.20 highs.
USDJPY My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDJPY is below:
The market is trading on 143.69pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 141.93
Recommended Stop Loss - 144.60
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY(20250428)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The Fed's subsequent policy path considers two scenarios: First, there is no substantial progress in the negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. After 90 days, the US tariffs are still high. Weakened economic demand may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates starting in July, and the annual rate cut may reach 100 basis points; second, the negotiations are fruitful, tariffs are reduced, and the demand shock is small, but inflationary pressure continues. The Fed may postpone easing and only cut interest rates slightly in December. For the market, although the easing comes early in the first scenario, the "recession-style" rate cut may suppress risky assets.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.40
Support and resistance levels:
144.89
144.33
143.97
142.83
142.47
141.91
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.97, consider buying, the first target price is 144.33
If the price breaks through 143.40, consider selling, the first target price is 142.83