The weekly Money chaseWithout any further overview you can clearly see that there is some weekly gap that is left out and has a huge draw of $, because the sell side lows are already taken, this setup can give us a two days judas swing (probably).
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPYHello everyone I lost a good point of entry today but I believe is gonna go back 50% and is gonna continue go down, I’m looking 2:1 RR so lets seeeeee!
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 147.12, which is a pullback support close to 23.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 149.46, a swing-high resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 145.83, which is an overlap support level close to 50% FIbo retracement.
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USDJPY Short: Completion of Wave 2As a follow up to my DXY short call, I am presenting you with USDJPY. Similarly, I think it has completed wave 2 and will be starting wave 3. What this means is that JPY will be strengthening very seriously.
It could also mean that Nikkei is going to fall into a serious bear market.
Bullish momentum to extend?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has acts as a pullback support and could reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 147.15
1st Support: 145.81
1st Resistance: 149.39
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WAITING FOR A BEARISH PULLBACKUSD/JPY 4H - As you can see here price has been trading us in a bullish way. I want to see price pullback to clear the inefficiency that has been left behind allowing us to get involved in longs at a better price.
By price pulling back down and into an area of interest (Demand) we are able to get in at a cheaper price which means we are able to take a larger profit from a push up and inevitably able to get in with a more refined entry as we know where price may reverse from.
We could look to go short in the market before we go long but as you all know that would be trading against the higher timeframe prevailing trend and that comes with its own risks. Remember, the trend is your friend.
We would need confirmation parameters to be met either way for both longs in the market and short positions before we look to place the positions we want to, this just gives us an added layer of protection and a higher probability of being successful.
USDJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
NONFARM PAYROLL DAYNONFARM PAYROLL 8:30 NY TIME:
Usually is one way aggressive move with London Low of the day if Bullish
Friday made 307 Pips.
My set up would be:
Trade after 2:30 NY time return to 15Min OB
STOPLOSS: Low of OB or 30 pips from trade execution.
HIGH REWARD TRADE
USD/JPY (SELL)We can’t to see price drop at the 149 area
We had price push up and break the a trend line.
We also seen a huge drop previously to that push up..
We want to see price drop and correct its direction down to the 140 range.
Entry: 149.324
TP: 140.358
USD/JPY (SELL)We can’t to see price drop at the 149 area
We had price push up and break the a trend line.
We also seen a huge drop previously to that push up..
We want to see price drop and correct its direction down to the 140 range.
Entry: 149.324
TP: 140.358
USD/JPY Bullish Breakout: High-Probability Buy SetupsThe USD/JPY 4-hour chart is showing a clear Bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, followed by a breakout of a descending trendline. After reaching point D of the pattern, the price initiated a bullish reversal. Currently, the price has broken through a key descending resistance line, signaling strong buyer momentum. The TDIGMA oscillator confirms this, with momentum indicators consistently moving towards overbought territory, reflecting the current buying pressure.
1. Buy on Trendline Breakout
With the confirmed breakout of the descending trendline, a potential strategy is to buy into the continuation of this upward movement, capitalizing on the positive momentum.
Entry: Buy around the 148.69 zone to capture the continuation of the breakout.
Stop Loss: 145.369 (near the support line).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1
Rationale: The strong resistance break and ongoing bullish pattern suggest a high probability that the pair will continue to rise.
2. Buy on a Small Pullback
Description: Another buying opportunity may arise if there’s a small pullback to retest the broken trendline as support. This can offer a lower-risk entry with the trend in your favor.
Entry: Buy between 147.30 - 148.00 (on a retest of the breakout line).
Stop Loss: 145.369 (near the support line).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1
Rationale: Pullbacks after breakouts often offer high-probability entries. However, this pullback may not occur if the bullish momentum continues without pause.
USD/JPY presents a clear bullish scenario after breaking the descending trendline. The strategy to buy on the continuation of the breakout is the most recommended, with a high probability of success. Buying after a small pullback also offers an attractive strategy with strong potential. Keep an eye on price action for optimal entries.
USD_JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|SHORT|
✅USD_JPY has been growing recently
And the pair seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a horizontal resistance of 149.385
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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USDJPYA drop on this first thing on Monday or even Sunday would be wonderful for another buy position
UsdJpy Trade IdeaUJ has been in a clean range between 149 and 140.6. Once price tapped into 140.6 we ended up getting a clean flip of structure with bullish structures staying strong throughout the week. We ended last week at resistance being 149 but we're still overall bullish! Which means I'll personally still be looking for longs for the new week. I would want to see price pullback and retest either 147.100 or 145.930 before going long on the pair. The last HL within the range is 145.930 so as long as price stays above that level then we are definitely still long within the range. I'll look target the resistance level at 149.
USDJPY : A closer look A closer observation on the confluences between wave relationship from different points insinuate a high probable topping at 161.95 (see previous posting on the longer- term wave relationship).
There is a possibility of a 5 wave completion to the downside and a current corrective upside in play.
Interestingly, price breached the supporting trendline to see it moving back up to retest the trendline .
Further upside could still be in play with areas at 150.43 - 150.61 ( 50% retracement & 1.27 of wave a from red b) or higher 153.12 -153.17 (61.8% retracement & 1.618 of wave a from red b) and probably retesting the underside of the trendline.
The following move down will be interesting with risk at 161.95 against what is about to unfold in the third wave if the count is not invalidated.
USDJPY may come down now!USDJPY may come down now!
Resistance zone is between 147.286 & 146.875
Consolidation zone is between 144.594 and 144.121
I have analyzed the chart using SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ZONES .
According to my analysis the price may get downsides from resistance zone now. Seller may put pressure in the market. they may take control now.
My analysis suggests that
Entry point :- 146.870
Take profit :- 145.335
Stop loss :- 148.403
USD/JPY Under Pressure: A Guide to Shorting OpportunitiesMarket Sentiment and Positioning: Monitoring the sentiment in the forex market can provide insights into the overall positioning of traders. If sentiment shifts towards bearishness for the dollar based on the above factors, it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy as more traders take short positions.
Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical events can significantly influence currency markets. For instance, any escalation in trade tensions, conflicts, or uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy could lead to a flight to safety, where investors prefer holding the yen over the dollar, thus providing a rationale for shorting USD/JPY.
Economic Slowdown in the U.S.: Recent economic indicators from the U.S. may suggest a slowdown, such as declining GDP growth, rising unemployment, or decreasing consumer confidence. If these trends continue, they can lead to a bearish outlook for the USD, prompting traders to short USD/JPY.
Fundamentals Favoring a Bullish USDJPY:What Traders Need to KnowIn today's trading environment, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a bullish opportunity. Here are some key fundamentals that support this bias, along with an explanation of utilizing probabilities for positioning long trades.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias on USD/JPY
1. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy: The BoJ has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, refraining from committing to predefined rate hikes for the remainder of the year. This stance is likely to weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar as traders anticipate continued divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BoJ.
2. U.S. Economic Growth: Recent data indicates a pickup in U.S. economic growth without significant inflationary pressures. This environment supports a stronger U.S. Dollar as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates aggressively, contrary to some market expectations.
3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the forex market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies like the Yen, which is under pressure due to Japan's economic conditions and the BoJ's policies.
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions in USD/JPY
When trading, I prioritize using probabilities to enhance my decision-making process.
In conclusion, by focusing on probabilities and key fundamental indicators, I am strategically positioning myself for potential long trades in USD/JPY.
This method not only enhances my trading confidence but also provides a structured approach to navigating market volatility effectively.
Let's dive into my comprehensive top-down analysis together:
12M:
2W:
1H:
Slight Bullish Bias Driven by Key Fundamentals on USDJPY.USDJPY Analysis for 04/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias Driven by Key Fundamentals
On October 4, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair displayed a slight bullish bias, influenced by several fundamental factors and market conditions. These elements provided upward momentum for the pair, making it an attractive opportunity for traders. Below is an in-depth analysis of the key drivers that shaped the bullish sentiment in USDJPY:
1. Strong US Dollar Momentum
The primary factor behind the bullish bias in USDJPY on October 4, 2024, was the ongoing strength of the US dollar. The release of positive U.S. economic data, particularly strong non-farm payrolls and robust manufacturing data, bolstered investor confidence in the U.S. economy. This economic resilience reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates, potentially keeping rates elevated for a longer period.
As a result, the USD gained strength across the board, driving USDJPY higher as traders moved into dollar-denominated assets. The higher yields offered by U.S. assets compared to Japanese assets provided additional support for the dollar, causing upward pressure on the pair.
2. Diverging Central Bank Policies
The monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to be a significant driver of the USDJPY pair. While the Federal Reserve remains committed to its tightening cycle to combat inflation, the BoJ has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ’s reluctance to shift away from its low interest rate environment has kept the Japanese yen under pressure, creating a favorable environment for a bullish USDJPY bias.
Investors are increasingly focused on the Fed's hawkish stance, especially as the BoJ remains committed to keeping yields low, which has created a significant interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This yield differential is a core reason why USDJPY is supported at higher levels, as traders are incentivized to seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets.
3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields
Another key factor supporting the bullish bias in USDJPY on October 4, 2024, was the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. With the Fed’s monetary tightening policy expected to continue, yields on longer-term U.S. Treasuries increased, making U.S. bonds more attractive to global investors. Higher yields provide better returns for holding USD assets, further boosting the demand for dollars.
In contrast, Japanese yields remain suppressed due to the BoJ's yield curve control policy, which keeps interest rates near zero. This divergence in bond yields between the U.S. and Japan continues to make the yen less appealing compared to the dollar, adding to the bullish momentum in USDJPY.
4. Safe-Haven Demand Shift
Traditionally, the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency, attracting demand during times of global uncertainty. However, on October 4, 2024, the risk sentiment in global markets was relatively stable, with investors favoring the U.S. dollar as the dominant safe-haven currency. This shift in safe-haven demand towards the USD rather than the yen has supported the bullish bias in USDJPY.
With no major geopolitical risks materializing and the U.S. economy showing signs of strength, investors found the USD a more attractive safe-haven asset, further driving up USDJPY as risk aversion eased.
Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook
The combination of a strong U.S. dollar, monetary policy divergence, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a shift in safe-haven demand contributed to the slightly bullish bias in USDJPY on 04/10/2024. As long as the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance and the Federal Reserve continues with its tightening cycle, USDJPY could remain on an upward trajectory.
Traders should continue to monitor both U.S. economic data and BoJ policy announcements, as these will play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of the pair. A continued rise in U.S. yields, along with solid U.S. economic growth, may further support the bullish bias, while any signs of policy changes from the BoJ could lead to increased volatility in USDJPY.
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USDJPY POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY The NFP report on Friday came positive after the non farm payroll report increased to 254 superseding the previous month report of 159. In this coming week, we anticipate FOMC & inflation rate report. we’re looking forward to seeing further sell opportunity around 154.136 if we encounter new sellers.
It will be bullish candle next weekYen is strengthening it has hit a yearly low, time to wipe out is shorter.
I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart if we get the confirmation.
Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
USD-JPY Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY went up sharply
But the pair is about to
Hit a horizontal resistance
Level of 149.500 and as
The pair is locally overbought
We will be expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
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