JPYUSD trade ideas
Yen surges to five-month high as US dollar under pressureThe Japanese yen came flying out of the gates on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.00, down 0.79%. Earlier the yen strengthened to 140.47, its strongest level since Sep. 2024.
The US dollar has posted losses against the major currencies on Monday, including against the yen. Investors gave the US dollar a thumbs down after President Trump's top economic advisor said that Trump was considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump has been increasingly critical of Powell for not lowering interest rates and said last week that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough". Trump fired his latest salvo after Powell said that US tariffs would raise inflation and that the Fed could find itself having to balance keeping a lid on inflation and supporting economic growth. Powell added that tariffs are "likely to move us further away from our goals".
Powell has insisted that he isn't going anywhere and will serve until the end of his term in May 2026. Can Trump legally fire Powell? That is a complicated legal question, but the markets aren't waiting for an answer and the US dollar has retreated.
Trump's attacks on Powell threaten the independence of the US central bank and is eroding confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from Trump's tariff policy, which has dampened the confidence of foreign investors.
USD/JPY has pushed below support at 141.16. Below, there is support at 140.14.
There is resistance at 142.62 and 143.64
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 21 April 2025
- USDJPY broke support area
- Likely to fall to support level 139.55
The USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support area at the intersection of the support trendline of the daily down channel from January and the support level 142.00 (which started the daily uptrend in September).
The breakout of this support area should accelerate the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from March.
Given the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 139.55 (the former multi-month support level from September).
USD_JPY SWING LONG|
✅USD_JPY is set to retest a
Strong support level below at 139.559
After trading in a local downtrend from some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above at 141.384
LONG🚀
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USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025)
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~140.72
Structure: Descending channel
Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend
Key Zones:
Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone)
Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below)
Resistance Levels:
145.17 (intermediate resistance)
147.43 – 147.47 (major supply)
149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high)
Setup:
Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support.
Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support.
If bulls defend this zone, price may:
Rebound toward 145.17
Break short-term trendline resistance
Extend toward 147.43
Invalidation:
A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150
🌐 Fundamental Outlook
🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral):
Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation.
Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength.
Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook.
🔸 JPY Side (Weakening):
BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight.
Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term.
JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further.
🔸 Geopolitics:
Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact.
If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen.
🧠 Conclusion:
Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
USDJPY-bias long Bullish indications:
Major support respected
Inverted HS formation in 15 min time frame.
Inverted hammer candle in 4 hr
Bullish divergence in 1 hr
Trend line resistance broken .
Bearish indications:
Lower lows lower highs.
Trade plan bias long @ 140.815
SL:140.429
TP1:141.300
TP2:141.708
UJ shortgoing to see if any reaction here, then might take a short, unless if some positive news on USA. will look at 15m timechart, overall i say usa not looking too good over all on news. let see, then will watch the first 3 hour candles, if some strong sellers or not.
if this don't happen, then no trade.
Japanese Yen seems poised to appreciate further against weaker UFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already flashing slightly oversold conditions and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so.
In the meantime, attempted recovery might now confront some resistance near the 141.60-141.65 region. This is followed by the 142.00 round figure and the 142.40-142.45 hurdle, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering move could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 143.00 mark en route to the 143.25-143.30 zone. Any further move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity.
On the flip side, a sustained break and acceptance below the 141.00 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and makes the USD/JPY pair vulnerable. The subsequent downfall below the 140.45-140.40 intermediate support might expose the 140.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend to the 2024 yearly swing low, around the 139.60-139.55 region.
USD/JPY H4 | Downtrend to extend further?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 141.82 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 143.20 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 139.85 which is a swing-low support.
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USDJPY Case StudyHey guys!
Trendline traders would be profited from this UJ trade last week or today.
The market structure before the supply zone that I draw was a messy, don't you agree?
I would not consider this supply zone to enter the trade. But, if you draw a trendline and the supply zone automatically aligns with the break of the trendline, it became the place where trendline traders put their sell limit to join the bearish moves. It was a beauty. As of now, my target is only 2RR for my small funded account, so yeah it is easy to achieve.
The supply zone met my requirement as below:
1. Supply was left with imbalance followed by break of structure to the downside.
2. After supply zone, there was SBR level present. SBR traders would benefited from this zone.
3. Price approaching in clean structure or candles.
Btw, I am not taking this trade since I draw my supply zone without try to place a trendline on the market structure before it.
What is your goal this week?
Mine still the same. Trade the same setup, if setup no present, I will continue watching "traders motivation videos".
USDJPY Outlook – Bearish Continuation or Bullish Reversal??In this analysis, I'm breaking down the USDJPY structure starting from the 4H to identify the overall market direction (Bearish/Sells), then zooming into the 1H to fine-tune potential trade setups.
On the 4H timeframe, we’re assessing whether the recent bearish momentum is likely to continue or if price action is showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The LOW created at 141.800 level is our first target IF we continue to sell as its creating that LowerLow.
IF price closes bullish above 142.500, I will switch sides and look for potential buys.
On the 1H timeframe, I’m watching for a bullish liquidity sweep below141.888, followed by a clear break of structure to the upside on the 15m or 1H for more confirmation. That would indicate smart money accumulation and a potential shift in market sentiment—giving me confirmation to start looking for long setups.
🚀 Give me a boost and follow for upcoming $niper entries this week! 🦇🔥
CMCMARKETS:USDJPY
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 140.84
1st Support: 137.22
1st Resistance: 144.98
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Bullish bounce off major support level?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 140.82
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 137.37
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 144.77
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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