USDJPY 1H FORECAST Hello guys, Happy weekend here weekly outlook I hop you are well let me tell you right now that we will buy from here and our target will remain until the resistance area.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USD/JPY: A Reversal of a 10-Year TrendUSD/JPY is down nearly 10% from its January 2025 highs at 157, now trading just above the 140 threshold. The currency pair is testing the base of a 10-year rising wedge, and its recent failure to reclaim support at 148.83 is concerning.
Structural Breakdown: If 140 is lost, the potential downside opens to 135, 132, and 127. The last time this pair broke similar structural levels was in 2016–2017, during a major dollar correction.
Macro Pressure: A hawkish BoJ and collapsing US yields are reversing the carry trade. Demand for the Yen as a haven asset is rising amid volatility and equity losses.
Trend Exhaustion SignalsTrend Exhaustion Signals: How to Know When a Trend is Losing Steam
Every trend eventually runs out of fuel. Knowing when momentum is fading can give you the edge to exit early, avoid late entries, or even prepare for a reversal. This article dives into key signs of trend exhaustion and how to trade around them.
🔵Understanding Trend Exhaustion
Trends can persist far longer than expected, but they don’t last forever. Trend exhaustion occurs when the driving force behind a trend—be it buying or selling pressure—starts to weaken. Recognizing this shift is crucial for:
Protecting profits
Avoiding bad entries
Spotting early reversal opportunities
🔵1. RSI and MACD Divergence
A classic signal of trend exhaustion is divergence between price and momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
Bearish Divergence: Price makes a higher high, but the indicator makes a lower high.
Bullish Divergence: Price makes a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low.
This suggests that although price continues in the trend's direction, momentum is lagging—a red flag for potential exhaustion.
🔵2. Volume Dry-Up
Volume is the fuel of trends. When volume starts to shrink during a strong move, it often signals that the crowd is losing interest or that institutions are offloading positions.
In an uptrend, a series of green candles with decreasing volume = caution.
In a downtrend, falling volume can signal seller fatigue.
🔵3. Long-Wick Candles at Extremes
Candlestick patterns offer visual clues of exhaustion. When you start seeing long upper wicks at the top of an uptrend (or long lower wicks at the bottom of a downtrend), it means price is being rejected from continuing further.
Common exhaustion patterns:
Shooting Star (bearish)
Inverted Hammer (bullish)
Doji at highs/lows
These patterns are more reliable when they form near resistance or support zones.
🔵4. Structure Break: CHoCH and BOS
Market structure tells a deeper story than indicators. Two key terms here:
CHoCH (Change of Character): The first sign of reversal—a higher low broken in an uptrend, or a lower high broken in a downtrend.
BOS (Break of Structure): The confirmation—a key swing point is broken, confirming a new trend.
Traders can watch for these breaks to anticipate when the current trend is ending and a reversal is forming.
🔵5. Parabolic Price Action & Overextension
When a trend becomes parabolic—with steep, accelerating price movement—it often signals the final stage of the trend. This is when retail traders usually enter, and smart money begins to exit.
Warning signs:
Sudden vertical moves
Price far above/below moving averages
Lack of consolidation or pullbacks
Parabolic moves are unsustainable. Look for reversion to the mean or a sharp correction.
🔵How to Trade Around Trend Exhaustion
Tighten Stops: If in a winning trend trade, consider locking in profits or trailing your stop.
Avoid Chasing Entries: Late entries into exhausted trends are high-risk, low-reward.
Prepare for Reversal Setups: Watch for confirmation (CHoCH, divergence, candle patterns) before entering counter-trend positions.
Use Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Exhaustion on the 1H chart may just be a pullback on the 4H. Always zoom out for context.
Trend exhaustion is a natural part of market behavior. Recognizing the signs—such as divergence, fading volume, long wicks, structure breaks, and parabolic moves—can help you time exits better and avoid late trades. Instead of reacting after the fact, you’ll be prepared in advance. Add these tools to your trading routine and stay one step ahead of the crowd.
USDJPY 1WUSDJPY Weekly Analysis: Potential Long Opportunity
On the weekly timeframe, USDJPY has impulsively closed the previous month's low and reached one of the potential zones of interest. This is where I plan to start accumulating long positions.
Target: My primary target is 158.39, which aligns with a key imbalance zone.
Tomorrow, I will share more detailed insights and specifics on a local timeframe to refine entry points and further validate the setup.
Stay tuned for updates!
USDJPY4HJPYUSD 4H Local Timeframe Analysis
On the 4-hour local timeframe, after clearing liquidity in the form of last month's low, I am considering a long position from the weekly order block. On the local timeframe, the entry is planned at the OTE level.
On the 1-hour timeframe, there is a shift in character (CHOCH), signaling a potential reversal. However, I am cautious as this shift may be false. A change in character often points to a possible market reversal, but confirmation is key.
Trade Plan:
This is a long-term trade, so we will manage risk carefully. The risk per trade is limited to 1% of the deposit, with the stop-loss placed beyond the boundary of the weekly order block.
Targets:
Target 1: 155.88This is a slightly challenging level as it contains an OTE zone, where a reversal is possible, though unlikely. Upon reaching this target, the stop-loss will be moved to breakeven, securing the trade.
Target 2: 156.75At this level, 30% of the position will be closed to lock in profits.
Final Target: 158.87This corresponds to the imbalance on the weekly timeframe. The position will be fully closed at this level.
Summary:
By following this plan, risk is minimized, and profits are strategically secured along the way. The long setup is based on higher timeframe confluences and potential price reversals indicated by changes in market structure.
USD JPY this took support on this trendline. and is in also Demand Zone.
Not a Buy Sell Recommendation. Just Analysis only
Potential Long Setup Forming as USD/JPY Tests DemandThe FX:USDJPY is showing a deep correction within a bullish long-term structure. Price is now below the Ichimoku cloud (Span A and B at 149.22), which reflects bearish momentum in the short term. However, the market is approaching a strong weekly demand zone between 142.00 and 137.00, where previous bullish rallies were initiated.
Both Trend Strength Index (TSI) values are well into oversold territory:
TSI(10): -0.85
TSI(20): -0.81
This indicates that bearish momentum may be nearing exhaustion, and a reversal or bounce is increasingly likely. The zone between 142.00 – 137.00 becomes a key area to watch for bullish reaction, potentially offering a high reward-to-risk opportunity for long setups.
If the price reacts from this demand zone, the next major resistance lies between 148.00 – 151.77, which aligns with the bottom and mid-section of the Ichimoku cloud and past structural levels. Further upside potential extends toward 161, a previous swing high.
Trade Setup Idea:
Long Entry Zone: 142 – 137 (demand zone)
TP1: 148 – 151 (resistance + cloud structure)
TP2 (extended): 161
SL: Below 137
The structure supports a bullish continuation if this zone holds, making it a key region for swing buyers.
The Japanese yen continues to weaken as the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose monetary policy, in contrast with the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance. Although U.S. rate cut expectations have increased for late 2025, strong labor and inflation data from the U.S. have kept the dollar supported. In contrast, Japan’s inflation remains soft, and no strong signs of BoJ tightening have emerged. This divergence in monetary policy keeps the USD/JPY biased to the upside, especially if yields in the U.S. stay elevated.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Daily: Soon pushing off from resistanse, turning trend to Bull?Bear trend seems to soften, which could indicate a turn in trend and
USDJPY – Strong Bounce Incoming from Key Support?Price has tapped into a major support zone that’s held strong since early 2024. With confluence from the Fibonacci 0.618–0.65 retracement overhead, we could see a sharp bullish reversal targeting that region.
🟧 Strong support – historically reactive
📈 Potential bullish reversal in play
📊 Fib confluence at 152 – key reaction area
⏳ Watching for confirmation signs before entry
A clean structure here—could turn into a solid mid-term long setup.
Thoughts? Reversal or continuation lower?
USDJPY 4HR ChartLinked is the 4 hr chart for USDJPY. Please feel free to add any annotations or comments, I am looking to take swing trades utilizing ict concepts, smart money concepts, and wick candle analysis
DeGRAM | USDJPY Reached the Lower Channel Boundary📊 Technical Analysis
Descending channel
USD/JPY is trading within a downward channel, recently bouncing off support near 142.00.
Key resistance
The upper boundary near 146 serves as key resistance; a breakout would indicate a trend reversal.
Predictive scenario
Price may retest resistance with potential for further upside if bullish momentum holds.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
The Fed maintains high rates, while the BoJ remains dovish. The yield gap favors USD strength. Steady US data supports recovery, while global risks may limit JPY demand.
✨ Summary
A bounce from support within the channel aligns with USD-positive fundamentals. Watch 146 for a breakout signal.
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USDCAD and USDJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
18-04-25 USDJPY Pivot LevelSimple and yet effective. Price did retrace from upper pivot level yesterday.
Today the upper trend should continue with bounce off lower pivot of 142.194, though most banks are on holiday
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25
Fun Coupon Friday
SUMMARY
- Trading in the absolute Depths of the ocean, anticipating orders are being created for price to take an explosive breath. IMO!
- Weekly order block breached, YES.
- Weekly order block still valid due to no clear close below- Long positions only.
- A setup for break and close above key 15' structure point of interest creating higher high.
- B setup to await for lower time frame break of structure.
FRGNT X
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 18, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is down to 142.25 in thin trading session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is declining against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid concerns over the economic impact of tariffs.
Data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday showed that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.6% in March, up from the previous reading of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the national CPI excluding fresh food was 3.2% y/y in March, up from 3.0% previously. The reading was in line with the market consensus.
Finally, the consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy rose 2.9% y/y in March vs. the previous reading of 2.6%. The Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar as an immediate reaction to Japanese inflation data.
However, JPY gains may be limited as Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials signalled a pause in the consideration of interest rate hikes, emphasising the need to monitor uncertainty heightened by US tariff measures.
Economic data from the US on Thursday was mixed. US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in two months, signalling a stable labour market. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed index fell short of expectations, a warning shot from the manufacturing sector.
Trade recommendation: SELL 142.05, SL 143.40, TP 139.80
USDJPYUsdjpy has been in a bearish trend, currently reacting off decisional orderblock, with not just a 15min ichoch but also a 1hr ichoch, I have set a sell limit order, let’s see how this goes
USD/JPY Technical and Fundamental Analysis – April 2025Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY monthly chart reveals a strong bullish breakout from a long-standing consolidation zone, defined as the Long-Term Support Region (circa 101.00–122.00). This breakout confirms a major structural shift, where prior resistance has turned into support, signaling the potential for sustained upside momentum.
Upward Price Break: The breakout is clean and supported by significant volume, suggesting institutional participation. The price broke out of the multi-year range and retested the breakout level, respecting it with a strong bullish impulse.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows Channel: Post-breakout, the pair has entered a rising price channel with clearly defined higher highs and higher lows—an essential indicator of bullish market structure. The pair remains well-supported within this upward sloping channel.
Projected Upside: A measured move target (based on the channel and Fibonacci projections) suggests the next key resistance lies around 165.67, offering a 16.72% potential gain from the breakout zone.
Downside Risk: The nearest support lies at 141.94–142.56. A break below this would challenge the structure, but only a drop beneath 136.06 (channel and prior structure support) would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Technically, the pair is in a medium-to-long-term bullish trend. Traders should consider long setups on pullbacks towards support zones unless key structural levels are broken.
Fundamental Analysis
The current macroeconomic landscape provides a mixed but slightly USD-supportive narrative, which aligns well with the bullish technical chart.
Supportive Factors for USD
Hawkish Fed: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rate cuts are off the table for now, citing sticky inflation. The upbeat US Retail Sales report (+1.4% in March) further strengthens the USD by highlighting ongoing consumer strength.
Geopolitical Risks: The escalating US-China trade war and the imposition of tariffs on AI chips are boosting demand for USD as a global reserve currency.
JPY-Supportive Factors (Limiting USD/JPY Gains)
BoJ Rate Hike Prospects: Despite some dovish commentary, the BoJ is still expected to raise interest rates in 2025, which should provide medium-term support for the yen.
US-Japan Trade Optimism: Positive trade negotiations between the US and Japan (with a second meeting planned within a 90-day window) could further strengthen the yen if an agreement is reached.
BoJ Concerns on US Tariffs: Governor Ueda hinted that Japan may take policy action if US tariffs hurt their economy. However, the BoJ is also expected to cut its growth forecast, which limits the yen’s upside strength.
Risk Sentiment: Despite recent global jitters, equity markets in Asia and the US are rebounding, slightly reducing the safe-haven demand for JPY.
perfect USDJPY opportunity to triple your account we are looking at buying the Y wave of the weekly WXY and the move has began
USDJPY 1 HR ChartThis is the 1 HR Chart of USDJPY, I am publishing this chart for further informational analysis. Ideally, further analysis will use smart money concepts, ICT, and wick candle analysis.
USDJPY 15M ChartThis is the 15 M Chart of USDJPY, I am publishing this chart for further informational analysis. Ideally, further analysis will use smart money concepts, ICT, and wick candle analysis.
USDJPY 1 D ChartThis is the 1 D Chart of USDJPY, I am publishing this chart for further informational analysis. Ideally, further analysis will use smart money concepts, ICT, and wick candle analysis.
TRADING PLAN: USDJPY SHORT TRADE SETUP Considering the bearish sentiment in UJ today, and the successful liquidity grab at the Asian session high, we'll take a short position. Our initial target is a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, followed by a 1:2 ratio after securing some profits.
USDJPY (1h) sell updateEarlier this week we had this USDJPY sell setup where price perfectly pulled back into our entry price and even though it's been ranging the trade is now running in profit so if you did take this trade move the stop-loss to break-even (to the entry level) & watch it play out till it hits take profit or you can manually close the trade in profit.
