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JPYUSD trade ideas

Short opportunity ?There is a strong line of support and resistance at 148.65 area,    I have a short position I opened a few weeks ago.  I am still patiently waiting for the price to break below this level.   In October 2024, the price tried to break above the same support and resistance area and it took three weeks to properly break above and start the bull trend.  (see blue box in the chart) At the time, the price consolidated in the ascending parallel channel and the momentum indicators were showing clear hidden divergence which is the continuation of the trend. I think the same scenario is unfolding right now.  The price is moving inside the descending parallel channel and RSI is starting to show the hidden divergence.   My overall bias for USDJPY is bearish so I am looking for an entry to short. When the price hit the upper parallel channel and rolle over to the downside, it might be a good place to open a short position.
Short
by EbonyFalcon
4
USDJPY M15 | Bullish Rise Based on the M15 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 148.94, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 149.53, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% fibo retracement. The stop loss is placed at 148.56, a swinglow support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Dollar weakens amid growing economic uncertainty Persistent tariff threats from the Trump administration and rising concerns over the U.S. economy are weighing on the dollar. Trump reaffirmed his commitment to implementing tariffs on Mexico and Canada according to schedule and reiterated the need for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, weak consumer confidence data further rattled investor sentiment, as the February CB Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 98.3 from 105.3, marking its lowest level since June last year. In Japan, accelerating inflation increases the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Japan’s January CPI rose 3.2%, the largest increase since June 2023. Bloomberg noted that with Japan's inflation among the highest in the G7, the BoJ may continue scaling back stimulus and shifting toward a more restrictive policy stance. After breaking below the ascending trendline, USDJPY shows a persistent downtrend. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, it widens the gap and reinforces the bearish momentum. If USDJPY breaks below the support at 148.20, the price could extend its decline toward 145.00. Conversely, if USDJPY tests the resistance at 150.80, it may gain upward momentum toward 153.40.
by inkicho_exness
USD/JPY Bullish Reversal Setup: Key Levels and TargetsThe USD/JPY chart on the 4-hour timeframe indicates a potential bullish setup. Here's a breakdown of the analysis: 1. Support Zone & Trendline Confluence** - Price is currently reacting to a strong demand zone** around 149.000–149.500, marked in green. - There's also a visible ascending trendline acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish outlook. 2. Change of Character (ChoCH) & Break of Structure (BOS) - A series of **bearish BOS and ChoCH confirm the prior downtrend. - However, the most recent ChoCH to the upside signals a potential shift in market direction. 3. Target Zone & Resistance Area - The next resistance zone** is marked around 152.000, aligning with a supply area. - This is also the short-term bullish target, as indicated on the chart. 4. Potential Trade Setup - If the price holds above the demand zone and breaks the minor resistance at 150.000, bullish momentum could push it toward 152.000. - A higher low formation** would further confirm bullish continuation. 5. Risk Factors - A break below the **strong low (148.800–149.000) could invalidate the bullish setup and signal further downside. Conclusion USD/JPY is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. If price respects the support and trendline, it could rally toward 152.000. However, a breakdown below 149.000 would invalidate the bullish bias.
Long
by TRADE_CENTER_1
USD/JPY1-hour time frame technical analysis next move possible.This chart represents a USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) 1-hour time frame analysis. The key elements of the chart include: 1. Support and Resistance Levels: 149.294: A lower support level where price could bounce. 150.643: A resistance level that price may break through. Red Zone (~152.000): A strong supply/resistance area where price may struggle to go higher. 2. Price Action & Prediction: The price is currently around 149.713 and testing support near 149.294. The black arrow suggests a bullish scenario, where price is expected to bounce from support and move towards 150.643, potentially reaching the 152.000 resistance zone. 3. Technical Patterns: A potential breakout setup where price may push higher if it holds above support. Price previously rejected from the red supply zone (~152.000), meaning it could face resistance again if it reaches there. This chart suggests a possible buy opportunity around 149.294, with targets at 150.643 and 152.000. However, if price breaks below support, the setup could become invalid.
Long
by DavidHills110
USD/JPY : Another Bearish Move Ahead ? (READ CAPTION)The USD/JPY daily chart confirms that the price followed our analysis precisely, dropping from the expected zone and completing a 500+ pip correction, hitting all three targets: 152.70, 151.70, and 151, before reaching 148.00. I anticipate a short upward move before another potential decline. The next probable target for USD/JPY is 148.65. Keep an eye on price action for confirmation! THE LATEST ANALYSIS : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
13
Usd/Jpy - Key level incoming!USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Reaction at the Lower Trendline Analysis of USD/JPY, we can see a clear reaction from the upper trendline, which has been tested multiple times before the current price decline after the false break on january 25. By cloning this upper channel trendline and projecting it downward, I have identified a potential support level where the price may react. This method provides a logical expectation that the market will respect the parallel structure. I am looking for confirmation in this area before considering a position. If i see a strong reaction and signs of strength from the projected trendline, it could present a solid entry opportunity for potential upside. As always, I am closely monitoring price action and waiting for confirmation signals before making a decision. Risk management is key, and I will use a well-placed stop-loss in case the market breaks through the projected support.
Long
by Norsefx
2
USD/JPY 4-Hour Time Frame AnalysisUSD/JPY 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis On the 1-hour timeframe, USD/JPY is in a downtrend, consistently forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). Recently, price retested the minor resistance at 150.500 before breaking below the key support level at 149.450, signaling increased bearish momentum. Following the breakout, price retraced upwards, likely targeting sellers' stop-losses placed above 149.450. This retracement indicates a liquidity grab, as market makers aim to trap retail traders anticipating a trend reversal. Currently, the price is positioned within a liquidity zone. If further bearish pressure emerges, we expect the downtrend to continue. Our strategy is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close below the 149.450 level for confirmation. Upon this confirmation, we will place a sell limit order at 149.380, aligning with our risk parameters. Sell Limit Entry: 149.380 (below key level) Stop Loss (SL): 150.290 (above liquidity) Take Profit (TP): 147.360 (next minor key support) Key Levels: Minor Resistance: 150.500 Minor Support: 149.450 (previously broken) This plan aims to capitalize on the continuation of the bearish structure while maintaining disciplined risk management. Fundamental Analysis: Recent statements from billionaire investor Steve Cohen suggest a bearish outlook on the US economy. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute's summit in Miami Beach (source: Bloomberg), Cohen highlighted several macroeconomic headwinds that could negatively impact the USD: Slowing US Economic Growth: Cohen predicts US GDP growth will decline to 1.5% in the second half of the year, down from 2.5%. Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Laws: New tariffs and tighter immigration policies under President Trump's administration are expected to weigh heavily on economic growth. Tariffs cannot be positive. It’s a tax, Cohen stated, warning that a potential tit-for-tat tariff war could further drag the economy down. Government Cost-Cutting: Elon Musk's leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency is pushing austerity measures, which Cohen described as a further headwind for growth. Cohen also indicated a bearish market outlook, expressing concerns about a significant market correction in the near term. Political Unrest and Its Impact on USD: In addition to economic concerns, there is widespread political unrest across the United States. Throughout February, protests erupted nationwide, particularly in opposition to mass deportations and other administration policies. On February 5, a coordinated movement called "50 protests, 50 states, one day" saw large demonstrations outside state capitol buildings (source: Bloomberg). Such social and political instability could further erode investor confidence in the USD. Conclusion: Given the combination of technical patterns and fundamental pressures, the USD/JPY pair is likely to experience further downward movement: Technical Confirmation: If the price breaks and closes below 149.450 on the 4-hour chart, it will provide a strong bearish signal. Fundamental Factors: Slowing economic growth, Tariff-induced trade friction, and Political unrest under President Trump's administration contribute to a weaker USD outlook. Based on these factors, our sell bias is supported by both market structure and economic fundamentals. We aim to execute our sell order at 149.380, targeting a downward move toward 147.360, while managing risk with a stop loss at 150.290. 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Short
by RebornFXTrader