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USD/JPY 4-Hour Time Frame AnalysisUSD/JPY 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis On the 1-hour timeframe, USD/JPY is in a downtrend, consistently forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). Recently, price retested the minor resistance at 150.500 before breaking below the key support level at 149.450, signaling increased bearish momentum. Following the breakout, price retraced upwards, likely targeting sellers' stop-losses placed above 149.450. This retracement indicates a liquidity grab, as market makers aim to trap retail traders anticipating a trend reversal. Currently, the price is positioned within a liquidity zone. If further bearish pressure emerges, we expect the downtrend to continue. Our strategy is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close below the 149.450 level for confirmation. Upon this confirmation, we will place a sell limit order at 149.380, aligning with our risk parameters. Sell Limit Entry: 149.380 (below key level) Stop Loss (SL): 150.290 (above liquidity) Take Profit (TP): 147.360 (next minor key support) Key Levels: Minor Resistance: 150.500 Minor Support: 149.450 (previously broken) This plan aims to capitalize on the continuation of the bearish structure while maintaining disciplined risk management. Fundamental Analysis: Recent statements from billionaire investor Steve Cohen suggest a bearish outlook on the US economy. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute's summit in Miami Beach (source: Bloomberg), Cohen highlighted several macroeconomic headwinds that could negatively impact the USD: Slowing US Economic Growth: Cohen predicts US GDP growth will decline to 1.5% in the second half of the year, down from 2.5%. Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Laws: New tariffs and tighter immigration policies under President Trump's administration are expected to weigh heavily on economic growth. Tariffs cannot be positive. It’s a tax, Cohen stated, warning that a potential tit-for-tat tariff war could further drag the economy down. Government Cost-Cutting: Elon Musk's leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency is pushing austerity measures, which Cohen described as a further headwind for growth. Cohen also indicated a bearish market outlook, expressing concerns about a significant market correction in the near term. Political Unrest and Its Impact on USD: In addition to economic concerns, there is widespread political unrest across the United States. Throughout February, protests erupted nationwide, particularly in opposition to mass deportations and other administration policies. On February 5, a coordinated movement called "50 protests, 50 states, one day" saw large demonstrations outside state capitol buildings (source: Bloomberg). Such social and political instability could further erode investor confidence in the USD. Conclusion: Given the combination of technical patterns and fundamental pressures, the USD/JPY pair is likely to experience further downward movement: Technical Confirmation: If the price breaks and closes below 149.450 on the 4-hour chart, it will provide a strong bearish signal. Fundamental Factors: Slowing economic growth, Tariff-induced trade friction, and Political unrest under President Trump's administration contribute to a weaker USD outlook. Based on these factors, our sell bias is supported by both market structure and economic fundamentals. We aim to execute our sell order at 149.380, targeting a downward move toward 147.360, while managing risk with a stop loss at 150.290. 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
USDJPY Downtrend USD/JPY is currently in a strong downtrend, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The pair continues to follow the descending trendline, respecting lower highs and lower lows, which confirms the ongoing downward momentum. Bearish Scenario: Trend Continuation First Key Support – 148.100 This level serves as a major support zone where price could find temporary consolidation or a minor pullback. If price breaks below 148.100 with strong bearish pressure, further downside is expected. Next Major Support – 142.000 A clean break and close below 148.100 could accelerate selling pressure. The next critical level to watch is 142.000, a strong historical support zone and a psychological level. If this level is reached, the bearish trend will likely extend further. Bullish Scenario: Trendline Breakout If USD/JPY breaks above the descending trendline, it may signal a potential trend reversal or retracement. The key resistance to watch for a breakout is 151.300, which acts as a strong support-turned-resistance level.
Short
by Pipsview_Analysis
1
USDJPY H1 I Bounce Off the Fibo?Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 149.76, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 151.16, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibo retracement and the 127.2% Fibo extension, forming a Fibonacci confluence that could act as a key resistance level. The stop loss is placed at 148.83, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump stated during a joint press conference with French President Macron that the tariffs deferred for Canada and Mexico until March 4 would proceed as scheduled. - In Germany, there is growing speculation that easing the debt limit will be difficult due to populist parties securing a constitutional veto threshold. - In Japan, Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Hajime Takata hinted at a potential rate hike, stating that if the economic outlook materializes, it will be time to shift gears. Major Economic Events This Week + February 25: Germany Q4 GDP + February 27: U.S. Q4 GDP + February 28: Germany February CPI, U.S. January PCE Price Index USDJPY Chart Analysis After failing to break through the 155 resistance level, USDJPY fell to the expected low of 149. However, it appears to have found support at this level, suggesting a possible rebound toward the 155 level again. In the broader trend, the downward bias remains toward the 140 level, but in the short term, an upward move to 155 remains possible.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USD/JPY 1HOUR CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE This USD/JPY 1-hour chart presents a bullish trade setup, anticipating a move higher. Here's the breakdown: Key Observations: 1. Support Zone: The price is bouncing from a yellow demand zone near 149.145 - 149.294, signaling buying pressure. 2. Bullish Projection: The black arrows suggest a potential rally toward the 151.511 resistance zone, marked in red. 3. Risk-Reward Setup: Entry: Near 149.670 Take Profit (TP): Around 151.511 Stop Loss (SL): Below 149.145, ensuring risk control. 4. Market Structure: A previous downtrend correction has found demand. A bullish channel formation supports the upward move. Trade Idea: A long (buy) position aiming for 151.511 is valid as long as price remains above 149.145. A break below may invalidate the setup. Would you like a caption or further refinements for your post?
Long
by DavidHills110
USDJPY corrects along with the dollar USDJPY is falling after a false breakdown. But, most likely, the fall of the dollar index, which happened after the change of the political position of the US leadership, also had a huge impact here. The index is likely to continue its fall and this will help the currency pair to fall even further Scenario: support 151.0 is ahead, from which a rebound to resistance 152.4 - 153.18 is possible, but in the medium term, as we have a change in the fundamental background, we can expect a continuation of the fall. The focus in this case is on the support 151.47 - 159.9. A breakdown of this zone may weaken the price to 148.8
Short
by AndeWave
1
USD/JPY Upcoming Trend - Bearish?USD/JPY news: 🔆The USD/JPY pair climbs to around 149.80 during North American trading hours on Monday, driven by a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) as 10-year Japan bond yields undergo a slight correction. The 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) decline to approximately 1.41% from 1.45%, the highest level in nearly 15 years. 🔆Despite this, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year continue to support the Yen. Additionally, hotter-than-expected National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January has reinforced speculation that the BoJ may tighten its monetary policy further. 🔆On the US Dollar (USD) side, a strong rebound follows its drop to a nearly 12-week low. Weak US private business activity data has led to increased dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the probability of a rate cut in June rising to 58% from around 50% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Personal opinion: 🔆The USD/JPY pair is still maintaining a downtrend in the medium term, besides the support for JPY from fundamental factors, technical analysis according to the trend line combined with Fibonacci levels and important resistance - support levels shows a clear downtrend, there is no sign of a reversal from USD Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell USD/JPY 149.50 – 149.70 ❌SL: 150.15 | ✅TP: 148.80 – 148.20 – 147.60 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1