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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

My Best analysis The chart shows a technical analysis of USD/JPY on the daily timeframe. The key observations include: 1. Resistance Zone (Grey Box): The price is currently near a strong resistance zone around 156.3, which has previously acted as a barrier. 2. Potential Downtrend: The chart illustrates a bearish scenario with a zigzag decline after breaking the support levels at 154.3, 151.9, and 149.6. 3. Support Zone (Pink Box): The area around 148.0 could act as a strong support zone in the longer term. This analysis suggests a potential sell-off in the coming days if resistance holds. However, market dynamics and fundamentals should also be considered
by LunaTrader_SingnalsProvider
Japan's corporate service inflation rises, yen steadyThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Christmas Day. Japanese markets are open but with most global markets closed for the holiday, the currency markets will be very quiet today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.29, up 0.08% on the day. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading higher and the upswing was repeated on Wednesday as Japan's corporate service price index (CSPI) climbed 3.0% in November. This marked a second straight month that CSPI has accelerated, after a 2.9% gain in October. CSPI measures the price that companies charge each other for services and is a leading indicator of service-sector inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan. The rise in CSPI supports the case that wages are rising and businesses are passing higher costs to consumers. This increase in demand-driven inflation is exactly what the BoJ wants to see before raising interest rates. The BoJ has hinted that further rate hikes are coming but hasn't provided any hints about the timing. There were some expectations of a rate hike at last week's meeting but the central bank stayed on the sidelines and Governor Ueda sounded dovish, saying that inflation was increasing "at a moderate rate" and the BoJ could take its time raising rates. Is Ueda throwing up a smoke screen to keep speculators away when the BoJ is in fact planning a rate hike in the next month or two? Perhaps. Inflation has been trending higher and the yen is falling fast, plunging 9.5% since Oct. 1. The yen pushed past the symbolic 160 level in July and could do so again. If the BoJ is genuinely concerned with the rapid descent of the yen, it will have to consider a rate hike or take more extreme action and intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing yen. There is resistance at 157.41 and 157.66 USD/JPY tested support at 157.15 and 156.90 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.64
by OANDA
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could rise to the 1st support which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 153.97 1st Support: 152.71 1st Resistance: 154.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
Short
by Tonksovave
Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 154.23 Why we like it: there is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 154.98 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 152.52 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY - Short active !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action as price rejected from bearish OB + institutional big figure 154.000. As well we have hidden divergence for sell. Fundamental news: On Wednesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Interest Rate on USD and on Thursday on JPY, news with high impact on currencies. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
USDJPY NEOWAVE ANALYSIS (DAILY) Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning This pair really excites me. I do not know why, but it has stuck with me, so I thought I’d give this a try even though it should be considered low probability due to me going deep down to the daily. As you can see, once wave F got over, we did get a very good 5-wave rally to complete wave A. Although i have no idea yet what wave A is a part of. After the biggest daily drop since wave 2, we got some downwards movement which indicated that the rally up is over. Now using logic and good reasoning when I think about this, it’s not possible for the downside movement to end so quickly after almost 2 months of upwards movement. Hence, I will take it to believe that the correction is still ongoing and the rally we are seeing right now is a strong B wave rally of a possible flat. I do not know where wave B will end, although since I do consider it to be strong, I will expect it to completely retrace wave A. Once we know where wave B finishes, then only I could understand whether the C wave will completely retrace the B wave. Any prior sell off before retracing wave A would mean that we're looking at a triangle correction
by thekidtrader11
USDJPYHere is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 151.800 after making its correction down to 150.400 . Scenario 1: SELLS from higher levels (153.300) We are at 153.300. That would confirm our pullback to the uspide and as long as it’s respected, we should continue to the downside to our next KL (Key Level) sitting at 150.400. Scenario 2: SELLS from 150.400 We dropped down to our Key Level 150.400 . If broken we should see more sells down to our targeted zones 149.500 - 149.000 . Scenario 3: BUYS from 154.700. We broke above 154.700 and are trading above it. We should see more upside potentially reaching new highs at around 158.800 . Personal opition: The direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. A safe sell trade could be taken at 153.000 - 153.300 . Be patient and stay tuned for updates on this pair. KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking below 150.400 would confirm sells down to 149.500 - 149.000. - USDJPY failing to break above 153.300 would confirm sells. - Breaks above 154.700 would show signs of reverse and could potentially rise up to 158.800. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: In the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having gained momentum from a major support level at 149.000. The price has successfully broken through our major key resistance at 151.500 and has continued to surpass two minor key resistance levels between 153.00 and 153.800. During this period, we observed the formation of an inverted hammer candlestick above our minor key resistance, which has now become a minor key support level. This was followed by two doji candlesticks, indicating potential price reversal and market indecision. Currently, we see price action accumulating buy orders in this area, suggesting that buyers are positioning themselves for a potential upward move. Price Action Expectation: Our objective is to wait for a manipulation or liquidity grab within the liquidity zone. Once the price bounces back and breaks through our minor key resistance, we will look to place a buy stop order. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 153.960 (just above the minor key resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: Below the liquidity zone Take Profit: Below the major key resistance Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by both technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place. Fundamental Outlook (USD/JPY) US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (Monday): Healthy profit-taking may occur; strong PMI could support USD. US Retail Sales (Tuesday): Positive retail sales data may boost consumer confidence and strengthen the USD. Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement (Wednesday): Anticipated rate decisions could lead to a resumption of upward momentum for the USD. US GDP and Unemployment Claims (Thursday): Strong GDP growth and low unemployment claims would further support the USD. Core PCE Price Index (Friday): Rising inflation could prompt expectations of interest rate hikes, bolstering the USD. Overall, while profit-taking may occur early in the week, a resumption of bullish sentiment for USD/JPY is likely as key economic data is released.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 154.85 1st Support: 151.56 1st Resistance: 157.65 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
2
USDJPY M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 154.20, a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 153.61, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 154.71, which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY Short term Buy read what below 1) Short Term (Maximum One Month) Rating: Buy Average Target Price: 153.00 - 155.00 Justification: Economic Data: Recent US economic data reports, including CPI and employment figures, have been strong, suggesting a resilient economy, which generally supports a stronger dollar. Interest Rates: The expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance with potential rate hikes creates upward pressure on the USD against the JPY, especially as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shows reluctance to adjust its significantly lower rates. Market Sentiment: Analyst projections indicate a bullish trend for USD, with reports highlighting robust performance in USD over major currencies and a potential target nearing 155.00. Geopolitical Stability: The US dollar is considered a safe haven amidst geopolitical uncertainties, maintaining demand over the JPY. 2) Medium Term (6-12 Months) Rating: Hold Average Target Price: 150.00 - 152.00 Justification: Economic Outlook: While the USD looks strong in the near term, medium-term trends suggest some volatility as markets adjust to the Fed's policy changes. Exchange Rate Dynamics: Analysts indicate that USD/JPY may trade in a range as US economic growth faces headwinds from potential recession fears leading into the latter half of 2025. Inflation Impacts: If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may need to adjust rates further, but this could lead to economic slowdowns in the US, impacting growth and therefore the USD. Bank of Japan Policy: Any shift in the BoJ’s policy, especially if it decides to hike rates, would impact the USD/JPY exchange rate and could stabilize the yen against the dollar. 3) Long Term (2-5 Years) Rating: Sell Average Target Price: 140.00 - 145.00 Justification: Economic Shifts: Over a horizon of 2-5 years, structural changes in the Japanese economy might lead to stronger growth outcomes compared to the US, encouraging a stronger yen. Demographic Trends: Japan’s demographic shifts may compel the government to adopt more aggressive fiscal policies, potentially strengthening the yen. Global Economic Position: As the global economy transitions, shifts in trade dynamics and investment flows could favor the JPY over the USD, especially if US economic dominance wanes. Long-Term Interest Rate Trends: If the BoJ is forced to raise rates while the Fed enters an easing cycle, the relative attractiveness of Japanese securities could enhance the yen’s strength against the dollar. Conclusion The USD/JPY pair is positioned for short-term gains due to robust US economic data and a hawkish Fed stance. However, the medium-term outlook reflects potential volatility and a need for cautious holding, while the long-term perspective suggests a potential depreciation of the USD against the JPY as structural factors evolve. Monitoring economic data, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments will be critical in refining these views.
by FreeAnas
1