USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.
At the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point rate cut, while the Bank of Japan held rates steady on the 20th. The dot plot released along with the FOMC results suggested an additional 50bp cut could occur later this year.
Earlier this week, China announced significant economic stimulus measures, including a 50bp cut to the reserve requirement ratio by the People’s Bank of China. This led to stronger risk appetite and appreciation of the yuan, putting downward pressure on the dollar. However, it seems that these effects have mostly been absorbed, and we are seeing some signs of a reversal.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently commented that the outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain, and he would carefully consider the timing of any rate hikes. Despite this, the market still anticipates a 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December.
Upcoming Events:
- September 26: U.S. Q2 GDP release, Fed Chair Powell’s speech
- September 27: U.S. August PCE Price Index release
USD/JPY has rebounded from the 140 level and reached the 144–145 resistance zone. If it meets resistance and declines, a mid-term downtrend could form, with further declines possibly reaching the 130 level. However, if it breaks through the 144–145 resistance zone, it is expected to rise to the 149–150 range. Since there is no clear trend beyond that, we’ll assess the situation when the time comes.
If market movements differ from expectations, we will adjust our strategy quickly.
