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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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Fundamental Market Analysis for May 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting fresh buyers in Tuesday's Asian session following the release of strong inflation data. Additionally, comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left the door open for further policy tightening by the central bank. This is in sharp contrast to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates this year, and is proving to be a key factor that is providing a nice lift for the yen. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks related to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East are contributing to the yen's safe haven status. The US dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains near its lowest level since April 22 amid concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal situation. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's fall to 142.000, or more than a one-month low, and supports the prospects for further losses. Trading recommendation: SELL 143.300, SL 143.900, TP 142.000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
0527: Bearish USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Hello traders, In the futures market, I once again came across a more "interesting" piece of data. The COT position data showed that the speculative long positions in the Japanese yen soared to 167,330 contracts, reaching an extreme level not seen in recent years. ★ I would like to present another set of data: ✔ In April, the price of rice in Japan soared by 98.4% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since 1971. This increase was even higher than the 92.1% in March. ✔ The Japanese government cancelled subsidies for gas and electricity in March, causing energy prices to rise by 9.3%. ✔ Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of core inflation above 3%. ✔ Meanwhile, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2024. ✔ Within 45 days, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds soared by 100 basis points, reaching a record high of 3.20%. Over 500 billion US dollars of 40-year Japanese government bonds, regarded as "safe assets", have depreciated by more than 20% in the past 6 weeks. Technically, weekly chart, UJ has make a bearish reversed bowl top and now this pair is targeting south running beneath WEEKLY EMAs. The support zone that be test triple would become resistance zone very soon. The weekly selling targets are marked out on this chart! Based on the latest market trends and the policy signals from the Bank of Japan, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next meeting (expected to be in June 2025). It is now the time to buy the expectation and sell the reality. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
USDJPY PLAN – Will FOMC Be the Next Big Catalyst?USDJPY PLAN – Will FOMC Be the Next Big Catalyst? 💬 After several sessions of sideways movement, USDJPY is showing signs of a potential breakout, supported by both technical signals and macro fundamentals. As the FOMC meeting approaches, the market is poised for a major shift — making this the perfect time to prepare actionable trade plans. 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Primary Trend: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader downtrend – currently testing the 200 EMA on H2. EMAs in use: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red) – effective dynamic support/resistance indicators. Key Resistance Levels: 145.35: Major confluence zone with 0.618 Fibonacci and trendline resistance. 146.11 – 147.20: Previous highs and Fibonacci extension targets. Key Support Zones: 144.61: EMA200 acting as immediate pressure point. 143.43 – 143.02: Crucial demand zone with strong reaction expected on pullback. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS FOMC Outlook: With recent CPI data softening and labor numbers moderating, markets anticipate a hold on rates. However, any hawkish tone from Chair Powell could trigger a sharp bullish move on USDJPY. BOJ’s Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, showing no clear intent to hike rates. This weakens the Yen and supports mid-term upward momentum for USDJPY. Interest Rate Differentials & Carry Trade Flows continue to drive volatility and directional bias in this pair. 🎯 TRADE SETUP SUGGESTION If price breaks and sustains above 144.61 (EMA200): look to BUY on pullback toward 144.15–144.20, targeting 145.35 and 146.11. If price gets rejected at 145.35: consider a short-term SELL toward 144.00 – 143.43 for a corrective leg. ⚠️ STRATEGY NOTE: Avoid entering right at the time of the FOMC release. Wait for post-event confirmation. Prioritize strong breakouts or rejections, and manage risk carefully under volatile conditions.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Trump tariffs spark market jitters....again | FX ResearchAsian markets have shown mixed performance on this Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessant announced plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio this summer, potentially lowering government borrowing costs by enabling banks to trade more treasuries, while dismissing concerns about rising US bond yields. However, US fiscal challenges persist with deficits over 6% of GDP and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio—historically stabilised only by high inflation or asset bubbles—raising doubts about sustainable debt reduction without fiscal reform. President Trump's recent moves, including a 50% tariff on European goods, a 25% levy on foreign smartphones, and the blocking of international students at Harvard, continue to fuel market uncertainty, amplified by US and UK market closures for public holidays. Key US data this week includes the FOMC minutes, GDP estimates, and the core PCE price index. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY (Long Update)📊 Trade Breakdown: USDJPY Caught a solid entry and finally seeing the trade work in our favor. I'm targeting the daily FVG (Fair Value Gap), which aligns perfectly with a massive untapped weekly wick sitting above current price. ✅ Entry Zone: Around the 143.1–144 region 🎯 Target Zone: Daily imbalance above 146.600 — expecting price to at least tap into 25% of that weekly wick, which historically gets filled when paired with daily inefficiency. 🔍 Confluences: Daily FVG lining up with weekly wick Want to see the daily close above previous day. Momentum flipping after tapping key liquidity pools 📅 Setup is playing out exactly as planned — patience paying off.
Long
by MillionaireMind717
1
USDJPY: Very Bearish Setup ExplainedI spotted a lot of bearish confirmations on 📉USDJPY on a 4H time frame: A significant head and shoulders pattern was formed, and its neckline is broken. As the right shoulder formed, a distinct horizontal trading range emerged, which also saw support being violated. The neckline serves as an important horizontal support, and the market has broken through all of these levels. We can expect further declines, with the next support level at 143.
Short
by linofx1
6
Falling towards pullback support?USDJPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 142.400 1st Support: 140.92 1st Resistance: 144.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDJPY Technical Analysis.This chart shows a 2-hour timeframe for the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen) currency pair on FXCM. It represents a bearish trade setup with key elements marked: Entry Zone: Near 144.075 (current price level). Stop Loss: Placed at approximately 144.796 (red zone above the entry). Target (Take Profit): Set around 143.506 (green zone below the entry), marked with the target symbol. Expected Price Action: The red arrow indicates a potential upward move (false breakout or retracement), followed by the green zigzag indicating a downtrend continuation toward the target. Interpretation: The setup anticipates a short position—selling USD/JPY near current levels in expectation of a price decline. Risk-to-reward appears favorable, with a tighter stop loss compared to the potential downside. Would you like a combined strategy summary comparing both BTC/USD and USD/JPY setups?
Short
by XAUUSD_EXPERT_Team
USDJPY - MR.GRINGO ThinkingsHello everybody. Today, we have some discussion about this pair but only with using Technical ways. The pair right now is very long, maybe 80 days' time period in trouble situation. I mean, the bears have the market of it... As we see, this 80 day was so strong bearish range, but it's great try for bulls now! We may have a hope, the price will go up with this next side of the acceding triangular figures. We may open long position on the price 143.603 or Just make entry for long now. If you will follow this trading idea, there we will have "the main" resistance levels. They are... 1. 145.735 2. 146.892 3. 148.048 yes. so I recommend this price levels, because the market will check it maybe later... For sure if you think buy. Have a profit maker day! :) ^)
Long
by Nika-Lekishvili
Bullish Reversal on Risk-On Shift and Channel BreakoutCMCMARKETS:USDJPY USD/JPY surged as risk appetite returned after a U.S. federal court blocked President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, undermining demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Meanwhile, weak demand in Japan’s 40-year bond auction raised concerns over fiscal stability, adding further downside pressure to JPY. Technically, the pair broke above a downward channel and formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 144.90 demand zone. If price consolidates above 145.00, a test of the 148.15 resistance zone is possible. Traders now eye upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data for direction on Fed policy. Resistance : 148.14 , 148.67 Support : 144.90 , 144.42
Long
by ATFX_Global
USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 🔹 Timeframe: 30M 🔹 Methodology: Elliott Wave + AO + Structure Break + BBMA ⸻ 🔍 Current Market Outlook: I’m currently observing Wave 4 playing out as a complex correction. Price is pushing toward the key level 142.796, which I expect to break structure (BOS) to the upside. Once that level is cleared, I’ll be watching closely for signs of an ABC corrective move to form — setting up a high-probability sell opportunity aligned with the final Wave 5 leg. ⸻ 🧠 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ Wave Count: • Wave 3 is confirmed by the strongest momentum on the AO • Wave 4 is unfolding and approaching structure at 142.796 • AO shows decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at possible exhaustion ✅ Plan: • Wait for break above 142.796 • Monitor for completion of ABC correction • Enter short after C-leg confirmation • TP at 1.618–1.786 Fib extension zone (141.818–141.614) • Anticipating bullish divergence on AO by the end of Wave 5 ⸻ 📌 Confluence Checklist: ✔️ Wave theory ✔️ BOS expected ✔️ Fibonacci targets ✔️ AO divergence setting up ✔️ BBMA structure alignment ⸻ 🎯 Strategy Summary: Break 142.796 ➝ Spot ABC ➝ Enter short on C ➝ Ride Wave 5 ➝ TP @ extension zone ⸻ 💬 Share your thoughts—Are you seeing the same potential Wave 5 setup? Let’s discuss. 👉 Follow me for clean structure-based analysis, BBMA setups, and advanced wave insights. #USDJPY #ElliottWave #ForexSetup #WaveAnalysis #BBMA #AOindicator #MarketStructure #BreakOfStructure #SmartMoney #SellTheRally #Wave5 #ForexStrategy
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Bias with Multi-Market Confluence!📉 USDJPY Technical Breakdown – Yen Strength in Focus 📉 In this video, we take a close look at the USD/JPY, which is currently under pressure and trending to the downside 🔽. The bearish momentum is clear, but there are several key factors to consider before positioning ourselves for a potential short 📊. 🔍 First, it’s important to monitor the equity markets. If we start to see a pullback or sell-off in the stock indices 🏦📉, that could translate into further yen strength, adding weight to a USD/JPY short bias 💴💪. Another key piece of confluence is comparing the DXY (Dollar Index) 📈 with the JXY (Japanese Yen Index) 📉. This gives us deeper insight into the relative strength of each currency and helps confirm our directional bias before entering a trade ⚖️. 🔁 Coming back to the USD/JPY chart, we’re watching for a retracement into a Fibonacci point of interest, which could provide a high-probability area to enter a sell setup. If price reacts from that level and confirms with structure, we could have a clean opportunity for continuation 🔂🎯. ⚠️ This is not financial advice — always conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
1
USD/JPY Reverses from ResistanceUSD/JPY is poised to snap a three-day winning streak with price reversing today at the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range. A decline of more than 1.5% from the highs puts the immediate focus on the monthly range lows with a break needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Monthly open support rests at 143.06 and is backed by the May opening-range lows (ORL) at 142.35. A break below this threshold exposes the yearly low day close (LDC) at 141.56 and key support at the December lows / 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance at 140.25/49- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial resistance stands at 146.15 and is backed by the 78.6% retracement at 147.25. A topside breach / close above the upper parallel (blue) is needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend with subsequent objectives eyed at 148.39/65 and the 200-day moving average / March high-day close (HDC) around 149.46/50. Bottom line: USD/JPY exhausted into technical resistance this month with today’s reversal threatening resumption of the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 147.25 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the monthly range needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. -MB
by FOREXcom
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling our buy entry level at 144.87, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 146.55, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 143.86, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu