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JPYUSD trade ideas

Wednesday 2 July: USD to recover short term? The general market mood remains positive, and particularly sentiment for the USD remains in the douldrums. All of a sudden, there is talk of three FED cuts by the end of the year (although I think that's a bit ambitious). A soft NFP report could cement multi year USD weakness. But pre (Thursday's) NFP I suspect we could see some dollar profit taking. Currently, I see 'risk on' short JPY (or CHF) as very viable, the risk to a trade would be USD liquidity if the dollar continues to weaken. Recommended trade: AUD JPY long
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
Buy limit order at $143.400 after a retest confirms supportAnalyzing the USD/JPY across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent pattern of price recovery after a significant drop, indicating a potential phase of accumulation by institutional players. The daily chart shows a recent decline followed by a stabilization and slight upward movement, suggesting a possible change of character (CHoCH) from bearish to bullish momentum. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts confirm this with a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicative of a shift towards bullish sentiment. The 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts display more granular price action, with recent bullish candles suggesting an ongoing push for higher prices. This could be a response to retail selling pressure being absorbed by institutional buying, a common scenario during early stages of a bullish reversal. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in the early stages of an accumulation phase, targeting liquidity above recent highs to trigger stop losses and fuel further upward movement. The presence of unmitigated order blocks (OB) on the 1-hour chart around 143.400 provides a potential area for re-entry, suggesting that price may revisit this zone to balance before continuing upwards. LEARNING POINT: "1H Order Block mitigation after liquidity sweep" - This scenario highlights how institutions often retest key levels where significant orders were previously placed, confirming their commitment to driving the price in the intended direction. SIGNAL: BUY SYMBOL: USDJPY ENTRY PRICE: $143.400 STOP LOSS: $143.200 TARGET PRICE: $144.000 CONDITION: Buy limit order at $143.400 after a retest confirms support. RATIONALE: The setup aligns with a bullish CHoCH on multiple timeframes, presence of a 1H OB, and the anticipation of a liquidity sweep above recent highs. STRATEGIES USED: 1H OB Mitigation, Liquidity Sweep Above Recent Highs URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.20, Reward=$0.60, Ratio=1:3.0 CRITICAL RULES: The analysis strictly adheres to Smart Money Concepts, avoiding traditional retail indicators. The decision is based on visible price action and institutional logic, ensuring a high probability of success. The risk/reward ratio exceeds the minimum requirement of 2:1, enhancing the trade's viability.
Long
by Mistermoriarty
Market next move 🔀 Disruption Analysis – Bearish Alternative Scenario While the current setup points to a bullish continuation above the support zone (around 144.10–144.20) with a projected target near 144.60, here’s how a bearish disruption could unfold instead: --- 🔻 Bearish Disruption Possibility: 1. Failed Breakout / Bull Trap: Price may fake a move upward to trap breakout buyers near 144.40–144.50, then sharply reverse. This would indicate a false breakout and potential reversal setup. 2. Rejection at Resistance: Repeated failure to close above 144.40 may signal exhaustion. Bearish divergence could form on momentum indicators (like RSI) as price rises. 3. Break Below Support Area: A decisive break below the red support zone (around 144.10) may shift momentum bearish. That would confirm a lower high and suggest downside continuation. 4. Next Bearish Target: Initial support lies at 143.85, with further potential drop toward 143.60.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day. Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges. Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal. The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64 144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/JPY Bearish Gartley Pattern Completion - SELL SETUP 📊 Trade Overview Pair: USD/JPY Pattern: Bearish Gartley Timeframe: 15 minutes Direction: SHORT Setup Type: Harmonic Pattern Completion + FVG Confluence 🎯 Market Analysis The price is evidently bearish according to market structure, currently in a retracement phase, and I expect a bearish continuation at the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the wave. The harmonic pattern establishes an 88.6 Fibonacci ratio for bearish entry with a balanced and low-risk R/R of 1:1.82 (profit - risk).
Short
by oky_capriatto
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacted off the support level which is an overlap support and could drop from this level to our tak eprofit. Entry: 144.96 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 146.11 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 142.70 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Poised for a BreakoutUSDJPY Poised for a Breakout On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is not yet taking a clear direction. The price is showing the possibility of both movements. With the current data we can see that USDJPY is forming a triangle pattern and only the breakdown up or down will show the direction of the price. However, I think the chances are higher for the bullish movement considering that the geopolitical tension in the Middle East is also very high and the USD remains one of the strongest currencies. Bullish target: 147.90 Bearish target: 140.90 ⚠️ Note: If the pattern transforms more than this triangle, then we may be in a different situation and everything may be invalid. The analysis may change over time. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
by KlejdiCuni
15
back to daily support USDJPY touched 148 this morning ahead of US PMI. According to methodology 1. Resistance Zone: • The 0.125 level (147.820) acted as a resistance point where selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse downward. Since the price reached 148.000 (just above 147.820), it tested and failed to sustain above this level, reinforcing its role as a barrier. 2. Daily Support •The daily support trend line (yellow box) has been an area to watch as price continues to try and get over the 148 hump. Until then, this pair is going to wedge until a break confirmation.
by SlattYSL
1
USD/JPY Bullish Reversal AnalysisUSD/JPY Bullish Reversal Analysis 📈💹 🔍 Technical Overview: The chart illustrates a strong bullish reversal pattern forming on USD/JPY after price reacted from a key support zone at 144.600. This level has held firm multiple times, marked by green arrows, signaling strong buying interest. 📐 Chart Patterns & Structure: ✅ A bullish harmonic pattern (possibly a bullish Bat or Gartley) is completing near the 144.600 zone. 🔄 Multiple rejection wicks and bullish engulfing patterns indicate a potential upside reversal. 🔵 Descending trendlines have been broken, confirming momentum shift. 🔁 Previous resistance turned support (near 145.000) is acting as a possible launchpad for the next move. 🎯 Upside Target: The projected move targets the resistance zone at 147.698, aligning with previous highs and a significant supply area. If price breaks above 145.900 convincingly, continuation toward this resistance is expected. 🔻 Downside Risk: A break below 144.600 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose price to the lower support range near 142.000–143.000. 📊 Conclusion: USD/JPY is showing signs of bullish reversal from a strong demand zone. If price sustains above 145.000 and breaks the minor consolidation, the pair could rally toward 147.698 🎯. Bias: Bullish ✅ Support: 144.600 Resistance: 147.698
Long
by MrStellanSight
5
Falling towards pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 145.11 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 143.85 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 147.58 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. njoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Analysis – Bearish Retracement SetupPrice is currently hovering around 144.340, and I'm anticipating a short-term pullback into the 144.786 zone — a key area of interest that aligns with a premium supply zone and possible order block on the H1/H4 timeframe. This retracement may serve as a liquidity grab before price resumes its bearish move toward 142.526, which sits near a higher timeframe demand zone or liquidity pool. If bearish confirmation (e.g., M-formation, bearish engulfing, or break of internal structure) appears at 144.786, I’ll be looking to short down to 142.526. 🔹 Short-term bias: Bullish retracement 🔻 Mid-term bias: Bearish continuation 🔍 Key Levels: Retracement zone: 144.786 Target zone: 142.526 Current price: 144.340 📌 Risk Management Note: This is not financial advice. Always use proper risk-to-reward (RR) setups, manage your lot size wisely, and never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Trading involves risk — protect your capital first.
Short
by The-ultimate-trader
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 145.00 1st Support: 142.59 1st Resistance: 148.57 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY) bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 3-hour timeframe, highlighting a breakdown from trendline resistance and projecting a move toward a significant downside target. --- Technical Breakdown 1. Trendline Rejection Price sharply rejected from the descending resistance trendline near 148.00 (red arrow), forming a potential lower high. This suggests continuation of the broader downtrend structure. 2. Break Below EMA 200 Price has broken below the 200 EMA (144.752), signaling a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. EMA is likely to act as dynamic resistance if price attempts a pullback. 3. Bearish Projection The chart outlines a measured move downward toward the target point at 139.955, implying a drop of over 5.36% (approximately 770 pips). The projected path shows lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish structure. 4. RSI Confirmation RSI (14) is currently at 29.98, indicating oversold conditions, but this often supports strong momentum in trending markets—suggesting a possible continuation lower after minor retracements. Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion / Idea Summary Bias: Bearish Entry: After trendline rejection and EMA 200 break (~144.75) Target: 139.955 Invalidation: Break above 148.00 resistance trendline --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
USD/JPY BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT Hello, Friends! Bearish trend on USD/JPY, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 143.964. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
USDJPY Will Go Up! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.018. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.793 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
SELL: USDJPY 144.75 Trade Recommendation – 1H Chart🎯 Trade Setup: Sell Entry Zone: 144.75 – 144.78 Stop Loss (SL): 145.15 Take Profit (TP): 142.60 Risk:Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx. 1:4 → Excellent for swing or intraday setups 📊 Technical Analysis Breakdown: 1. Strong Resistance Zone – High Reversal Probability: The 144.75–144.78 zone: A clear historical resistance area with multiple rejections in the past Converges with the SMA 89 (red line) → acts as a strong dynamic resistance Price has consistently formed lower highs around this region → showing selling pressure is building 2. Volume Analysis – Distribution Signals: Volume slightly increased as price approached the resistance but did not accompany a breakout No “breakout volume” → Indicates possible distribution phase, not accumulation → Favoring SELL positions 3. Price Action & Pattern: The structure is forming lower highs – a key sign of bearish momentum After the sharp rejection from the 145.22 zone (June 26), the market has shifted toward a bearish correction cycle 4. Target Area – Key Support: 142.60 is a well-defined support level: Matches a previous major low Corresponds with a high-liquidity zone from prior trading sessions Ideal area to take profit before any potential bounce ⚠️ Risk Management Notes: Trade confirmation increases if you see bearish candlestick signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar) in the entry zone Exit immediately if price breaks and closes above 145.15 with strong volume – that invalidates the bearish setup
Short
by HungDaoGlobalTrading
1
Trading Ideas USDJPY 4H [Disc On]Technical Analysis: The presence of a Hidden Bullish Divergence on the 4-hour timeframe suggests a strong likelihood of bullish trend continuation. Additionally, the price has broken through a key support level on the 1-hour chart, with upside potential targeting the Fibonacci cluster at the psychological zone of 144.500–145.000 . Conclusion: A BUY opportunity is favored, with entry consideration around the 144.500–145.000 Fibonacci cluster zone. Suggested risk management includes a stop loss at 142.000 and a take profit target at 150.000. 技术分析： 在4小时周期中出现隐藏的看涨背离，表明上涨趋势有较大延续的可能性。同时，价格已突破1小时图中的关键支撑位，上行目标指向 144.500–145.000 的斐波那契密集区域（心理价位区间）。 结论： 当前倾向于寻找BUY机会，入场参考区域为斐波那契密集区144.500–145.000。建议设置止损位于142.000，目标价为150.000，以控制风险并优化利润空间。 OANDA:USDJPY
Long
by Jerico_iko
1