Complete Mapping Analysis — USDJPY (H1 Chart)Strategy Focus: Elliott Wave (Impulse) + AO Divergence + Fibonacci Extensions
🔍 1. Current Wave Structure (Elliott Wave Count)
You’ve identified:
A completed Wave 3 (impulse).
A completed or nearly completed Wave 4 correction.
Now projecting Wave 5 to complete the 5-wave impulse.
Substructure breakdown:
Wave 1-2: Clean impulse and pullback.
Wave 3: Strong rally with AO confirming higher momentum peaks.
Wave 4: Corrective move, breaking below the internal trendline (initial break), signaling potential end of correction.
Wave 5 (projected): Final push upward to complete the motive wave.
📊 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets
From Wave 0–3 and Wave 4 retracement:
2.618 extension: ~146.50
2.886 extension: ~146.78
4.236 extension: ~148.22 (Aggressive top for a possible extended fifth)
These are possible Wave 5 termination zones. Confluence with previous supply zones increases likelihood of reversal here.
📉 3. Momentum Confirmation — Awesome Oscillator (AO)
You're watching for:
Bearish Divergence on AO:
Wave 3 had a strong momentum peak.
Expect Wave 5 to push higher in price, but AO shows a lower high, signaling weakening momentum.
This aligns with classic Wave 5 behavior — price extension with momentum exhaustion.
🧭 4. Entry Strategy
Setup: Long entry at Wave 4 bottom.
Entry trigger: Initial break → minor pullback → bullish confirmation candle.
AO: Turns green after red bars = first sign of momentum recovery.
Optional confirmation: Break of short-term structure high (micro Wave 1 in Wave 5).
🎯 5. Take Profit Plan
Layered take-profit strategy based on Fibonacci and AO:
Target Zone Price Area Action
TP1 (Safe) ~1.618 (145.44–145.72) Take partial profit (30–50%)
TP2 (Primary) ~2.618 (146.50) Secure majority of profit (80%)
TP3 (Max/Stretch) ~4.236 (148.22) Optional final push / runner
🛡 6. Stop Loss Strategy
SL placement: Below Wave (4) low (~143.73 zone) or below structure break.
Use structure break or strong bearish engulfing as a reason to exit early if momentum fails.
⚠️ 7. Divergence & Reversal Monitoring
Once price enters your TP2–TP3 zone:
Look for:
AO divergence (price high vs. AO lower high).
Bearish engulfing candles or microstructure breaks.
Weak volume or extended wick rejection.
These may indicate Wave 5 completion and the start of Wave A (correction) or a reversal.
🔄 8. Next Play After Wave 5 Completes
If divergence confirms and reversal begins:
Map corrective structure (ABC).
Short from:
Break of rising wedge/trendline.
AO flips red + break of microstructure.
Target retracement:
0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the full Wave 1–5 impulse.
Target zone: ~144.80 – 143.70
✅ Summary: Strategic Flow
✅ Identify Wave 4 completion → Confirm via initial break + minor pullback.
✅ Long entry for Wave 5 → Enter on bullish candle or structural break.
✅ Track AO → Expect divergence at Wave 5 peak.
✅ Use Fibonacci for TP zones.
✅ Exit with confirmation of divergence and reversal signs.
✅ Option to reverse short post-Wave 5.
