Short USD/JPYShort USD/JPY – policy-divergence finally tilting in the yen’s favor as BoJ hawks talk rates higher and U-S data cool.
• BoJ hawks signaling further 2025 hikes while Fed easing bets build → policy-divergence flips JPY-positive.
• Break & close below 38.2 % retracement and 200-SMA (H4) turns momentum south; hourly / daily RSI roll-over.
• Geopolitics easing removes safe-haven bid for USD, but not for JPY (BoJ still seen hiking).
• Bearish trigger deepens if 144.30 confluence (200-SMA H4 + 50 % Fib) gives way → air-pocket into 141s.
JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY BULLISH IDEA🧱 Key Observations
Order Block (OB) Marked (Demand Zone):
A clearly marked bullish order block (OB) zone is highlighted in pink around the 139.883 low.
This zone likely represents institutional buying interest.
It was the origin of a strong bullish move that broke prior structure.
Price Action:
After a series of higher highs and higher lows, price has retraced significantly.
It's approaching the order block area again, potentially for a retest or liquidity grab.
Heikin Ashi Candles:
Recent candles are bearish, showing momentum to the downside.
However, these candles typically lag in reversals, so price may soon shift if it hits the OB zone.
Projected Move:
A large blue upward arrow is drawn, suggesting an anticipated bullish reversal from the OB zone with a potential move back to 148.647 (recent high).
📊 Technical Implication
Bullish Bias if price holds within or just above the OB zone.
Watch for bullish reversal signals (engulfing patterns, divergence, or break of minor structure).
If price breaks below 139.883 decisively, the bullish setup may be invalidated.
📌 Strategy Idea (Not Financial Advice):
Entry Zone: 140.000–139.900 (inside OB)
Stop Loss: Below 139.800
Target: ~148.500
Risk/Reward: Favorable if OB holds
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
Overall, we can still see red data for the USDJPY, but let's look at the shorts closely. You can see they are being reduced. Check the charts where I highlighted the reports and how I read them.
Hey, what up traders, another week, another COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. I'm always trying to trade with the Big players, so knowing their positions is a good thing.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again, we as retail traders have a disadvantage, but there is the possibility to read between the lines. Remember, in the report is what they want you to see; that's why prices mostly reverse on Wednesday after the report, so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However, if the trend is running, you can read it and use it to your advantage.
📍Tip: If the level has confluence with the high volume on COT, it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
Have a great trading week, see in the next report.
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
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Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (143.000) Day trade basis.
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Analysis of USD/JPYDuring the European session, USD/JPY recovered its early losses and traded flat near 143.50. After three consecutive days of declines, the US dollar attracted buying interest on Thursday, pushing the pair higher. Against the backdrop of rising safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen and a generally weak US dollar, USD/JPY had fallen to a two-week low. The yen also benefited from upbeat machinery order data, which overshadowed recession concerns and boosted hopes for an economic recovery. This provided support for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to further raise interest rates. Combined with sustained safe-haven buying, this has kept the yen strong.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
USDJPY H4 Bullish
Entry: 143.75- 143.30 (around current market or on a slight dip)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 145.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 146.60
Stop Loss : 142.60
Risk Management:
(Briefly reiterate the importance of risk management.)
Example: Always manage your risk. Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any single trade. This is a high-probability setup, but markets can be unpredictable.
Major Trend Change Ahead !We've been in a prolonged bearish trend, and now we've finally reached a major key level that could potentially signal a trend reversal.
On the 4H timeframe, we're waiting for a retest of the order block to confirm the level's validity.
On the 1H timeframe, we're looking for a Change of Character (ChoCH) in the macro structure to identify the best trade opportunity.
JPY Hits 2-Week High as Dollar WeakensThe Japanese yen strengthened to around 143 per dollar on Thursday, its highest in over two weeks, as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook pressured the dollar. Fears that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could add over $3 trillion to U.S. debt weighed on investor confidence.
Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said he did not discuss currency levels with Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7 summit.
Domestically, core machinery orders surged 13% in March, beating expectations of a 1.6% drop, while May PMI data showed continued weakness in both manufacturing and services.
USD/JPY H1 | Bearish downtrend to extend further?USD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 143.50 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 144.50 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 142.35 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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USDJPYTHE 10 year Japanese's bond yield opens on bullish note while the 10 year us government bond yield dropping.
the JB10y opens on 1.546% and traded into London session at 1.587% before touching the supply roof ,yen is strong and dollar pull back will continue in a short term.
the US10Y open on bearish foot 4.607% and dropped into 4.572% London session reporting.
the yen dollar index demand and supply strategy disregarded as yield overflow keep yen on safe haven demand .
JB10 and yen exerting the same force across all pairs especially on united state dollar.
the pressure will continue.
USDJPY set go down much further. 1. Summary of Key Factors
-Factor Signal Impact on USD/JPY Notes
-US 20Y Bond Selloff Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Suggests capital outflows from US
-Moody's Downgrade Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Weakens USD confidence globally
-Japanese Portfolio Rebalancing Bullish JPY🔻 Drop Likely Reduced UST purchases = yen demand
-Technical Break of SMA & Support Bearish 🔻 Drop Likely Clean 50-day MA break = momentum shift
-Risk Sentiment (Safe-Haven Flows) Favors JPY 🔻 Drop Likely JPY tends to strengthen in uncertainty
-Upcoming Asian Session (Tokyo Open) Neutral–Bearish 🔻 May Continue Yen typically sees increased strength
Looking at all these factors we should expect a further drop.