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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 1, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner. Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit., Entry: 152.83 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 153.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 151.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024) Introduction In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair. Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand - The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. 4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment - The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair. 5. Japanese Economic Data - Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side. Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024) From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored. Key Support: 147.50 Key Resistance: 150.00 Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024 Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements. For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment. SEO-Keywords: #USDJPYForecast #ForexAnalysis #USDToday #JapaneseYen #CurrencyMarket #USDJPYOutlook #BearishUSDJPY #TradingUSDJPY #ForexFundamentals
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY - Bearish TrendCurrently, USD/JPY is showing potential bearish momentum. A key level to watch is the previous higher low; a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal. Additionally, there is a divergence present on the chart, with the price making higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This discrepancy indicates weakening bullish strength, suggesting that sellers may gain control. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
Short
by gulraizali90
USD/JPY: Can the 152.89 Support Level Sustain the Recovery?Despite a slight rebound following the BoJ's decision, the Japanese Yen (JPY) still faces multiple challenges. The USD/JPY pair temporarily dipped below 153, but technical indicators suggest that its long-term upward trend remains intact. The combination of the BoJ's loose monetary policy and the possibility that the Fed may soon pause rate hikes continues to support the USD. The technical chart shows strong support at 152.89, acting as a solid anchor to potentially halt further declines in the pair and pave the way for a short-term recovery. However, if resistance at 153.53 is encountered, prices may adjust back to the 153.07 support zone before resuming the upward trend. Traders should keep an eye on these support and resistance levels to identify short-term trading opportunities.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound. Key US Economic Data on the Horizon Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY. Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum. Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
USDJPY Will Fall! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 153.142. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 147.275 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/30/2024This is my idea Nbr 17 after 15 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/30/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
1