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ASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS LTDASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS LTDASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS LTD

ASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS LTD

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APN trade ideas

Our opinion on the current state of ASPEN(APN)Aspen (APN) is a global pharmaceutical company that operates in 150 countries, offering a wide range of specialty and branded products designed to address various acute and chronic medical conditions. The company has 25 manufacturing facilities across 15 sites, with its primary product categories including thrombosis, anesthetics, cytotoxics, and nutritionals. Pharmaceuticals, as a sector, are generally considered defensive because they tend to perform well even during economic downturns, as people need to continue purchasing medications for chronic conditions. For Aspen, the strength of the South African rand is a significant factor, given the company's international operations. In the long term, Aspen anticipates that its business interests in China could surpass those in South Africa. Currently, the company’s operations are heavily focused on emerging markets, which are expected to drive future growth. In its results for the year ended 30th June 2024, Aspen reported a 10% increase in revenue, though headline earnings per share (HEPS) were down by 3%. The company highlighted its achievement of the highest-ever 6-month normalized EBITDA in the second half of 2024, which grew by 17% over the first half. This performance marks a significant milestone in Aspen’s pursuit of sustainable growth. The company also noted robust cash generation from earnings, evidenced by a cash conversion ratio exceeding 100%, supported by a sustainably lower working capital investment. Aspen’s price-to-earnings (P:E) ratio of 15.19 is not considered high for a solid, international, blue-chip, rand-hedge stock like this. Additionally, the company's CEO, Stephen Saad, and his deputy, Gus Attridge, have demonstrated confidence in Aspen's future by purchasing about R110 million worth of shares at lower levels, suggesting they believe the shares were undervalued. Aspen's share price broke above its long-term downward trendline on 1st September 2022, at around R156 per share. After moving sideways, the share price has since increased to R206, indicating a positive trend. Given these factors, Aspen appears to be a good investment at current levels.
JSE:APN
by PDSnetSA
UPDATE: Target Reached Aspen R206.03 - Next target higherSymmetrical Triangle was a a text book trade. The previous trend was up. Price broke above the apex 3/4s in and the momentum continued up. We had further indicators of confirmation for upside to come. Price>20 Price>200 Target 1 R206.03 So what now? Well we can expect somewhat a consolidation, and a potential Cup and Handle to form. Then we have the next target above R221. It might be messy to buy now, but in good time it should present a great opportunity. I'll let you know.
JSE:APNLong
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of APNAspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited (APN), a leading pharmaceutical company, operates globally, distributing its products across 150 countries. The company's diversified product range targets various acute and chronic medical conditions, with a focus on thrombosis, anaesthetics, cytotoxics, and nutritionals. Aspen's extensive manufacturing footprint includes 25 facilities spread across 15 sites, underscoring its capacity to cater to a wide market demand. The pharmaceutical industry is traditionally seen as defensive, maintaining stability even during economic downturns, given the essential nature of chronic medication. For Aspen, one significant external factor influencing its performance is the strength of the rand, which impacts its earnings from international markets. Looking ahead, Aspen anticipates its interests in China to surpass its operations in South Africa, highlighting a strategic pivot towards emerging markets, which now constitute a major part of its business focus. In the reporting period ending 31st December 2023, Aspen announced a revenue increase of 10% while observing a 6% decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS). This financial performance reflects a mixed outcome, with Commercial Pharmaceuticals revenue growing by 3% (a 3% decrease in constant exchange rate, CER) and Manufacturing revenue surging by 33% (17% CER). Despite this revenue growth, the shift towards a higher Manufacturing sales mix has somewhat muted gross profit growth, which stood at 4% (a 3% decrease in CER). Normalised EBITDA experienced a modest rise of 2% (a 5% decrease in CER) to R5.194 billion, indicating the nuanced financial dynamics within the company. Aspen's Price-to-Earnings (P:E) ratio of 14.5 presents it as an attractive investment, particularly considering its solid international presence and status as a rand-hedge share. The confidence in Aspen's potential is further reinforced by significant share purchases by CEO Stephen Saad and Deputy Gus Attridge, who have invested approximately R110 million in the company, signaling their belief in the undervalued nature of its shares. Investors looking at Aspen as a potential addition to their portfolio were advised to wait for the stock to break its long-term downward trendline. This technical breakout occurred on 1st September 2022 at around R156 per share. Following a period of lateral movement, the share price experienced a significant uptrend, reaching R203.78. This movement suggests a positive momentum for Aspen, positioning it as a promising investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to the pharmaceutical sector and emerging markets, coupled with the added advantage of rand-hedge benefits.
JSE:APN
by PDSnetSA
Aspen With Weekly Low Confirmed (Bullish)Aspen confirmed a weekly after finding support at the 200 week moving average, now price is seeking a half cycle high. On the RSI we can see it reaching an overbought level with TSI stretched to the upside, we can expect a pullback from here while price seeks to cool off the indicators before seeking to breakout from the purple Pitchfork resistance. It is also noteworthy that the low price setup a double bottom whose full confirmation indicates that price will reach the resistance of the weekly grey Pitchfork.
JSE:APNLong
by runyamhere
Aspen Begins Weekly Cycle DeclineAspen is now in week 24 of a weekly cycle, this is a favourite spot to reach a top, we ended the week with a swing high confirmation. The next task is moving down and closing below the upslopping trendline. The red arrow shows the likely path the share is going to follow on the way down. The 200 week moving average will be a good place to look for a weekly low and price will likely reach this level where the accumulation zone (R150-R158) converge with the 200 week moving average.
JSE:APNShort
by runyamhere
$JSEAPN - Aspen Pharmacare: Short-term Double Bottom BuyI do not have a high conviction long-term wave count for Aspen. A quick glance at the chart shows a potential double bottom at the 16100 region. The stock looks to have caught a bid with volume increasing from the October 26 low. The double bottom will be confirmed by a break above 18286 but aggressive traders can buy dips below the neckline. The double bottom price target is 20400cps and the pattern is invalidated below 16096cps.
JSE:APNLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Aspen short looks like a Risky Biscuit - Here's whyThis one is tricky and I'd consider a medium to low probability trade. Aspen has just had a few days worth of bearish candles. Strong selling has clearly taken place. During the time, it's formed an M Formation. The price has broken below the neckline however there are danger signs that it might not work out. 1. 7>21 - Bullish. 2. Price >200 and needs to combat and break down 3. Smart Money Concepts - There is a fair value gap with an inefficiency of buying and selling. So the price is likely to go up at least 50% of the gap before choosing. 4. The JSE is in a jovial and positive mood right now... So you can see there are conflicting signals and if I had to get in, I would only risk 0.5% in this trade. RSI<50 Target R134.84 RISKY BISCUIT!
JSE:APNShort
by Timonrosso
Our opinion on the current state of APNAspen (APN) is a pharmaceutical company which trades in 150 countries in a wide range of specialty and branded products aimed at a range of acute and chronic medical conditions. They have 25 manufacturing facilities on 15 sites. Their main product categories are thrombosis, anaesthetics, cytotoxics and nutritionals. Pharmaceuticals generally are a defensive industry which does well even during a recession because people are compelled to buy chronic medications. However, a major factor in Aspen's case is the strength of the rand. In the longer term, the company expects that its interests in China will eventually be larger than its South African interests. The company's business is now "heavily weighted" towards emerging markets. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue up 5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 4%. The company said, "Commercial Pharmaceuticals revenue growing 6% (-1% CER) and Manufacturing revenue increasing by 3% (-6% CER). Gross profit grew 3% (-4% CER) ending lower than the growth in revenue with the impressive improvement in Commercial Pharmaceutical gross profit margins being more than offset by the loss of COVID vaccine contribution in Manufacturing. Normalised EBITDA rose 1% (-6% CER) to R11 100 million". The company's P:E ratio of 12,19 is not demanding for a solid, international, blue-chip, rand-hedge like this - especially one which appears to have benefited from the pandemic. To this you must add that its CEO, Stephen Saad, and his deputy, Gus Attridge, have bought about R110m worth of Aspen shares at lower levels - which shows that they have a strong belief that the shares were cheap. So, we believe that it is a good investment at current levels but suggested waiting for it to break above its long-term downward trendline. That break came on 1st September 2022 at about R156 per share. It then moved sideways and has recently broken up strongly to R171.35.
JSE:APN
by PDSnetSA
How The Markets Traps Bulls & BearThe chart of Harmony shows down slopping resistance with support of the broadening wedge & 200DMA aligned. Bulls will buy the support while bears wait to sell the resistance. One of the groups will be right & spur a rush of profit for the other. Since we expect price to be at a half cycle correction, we look for whether price will go lower than 10 July 2023 price, that would be an early sign that bulls might be trapped as price will go lower after a short bounce. Conversely, if we do not go lower, we setup a double bottom. Bears will wait for resistance to be enticed, fortunately for them, closing above resistance on a weekly basis is a sure sign to close short. Such moves though if purely short covering will lose buyers in a time band for a daily cycle high resulting in price reversing much faster. Confident longs would have been trapped. As a trader, your goal is to assess the likelihood of things going against you this is why timing bands matter. You are to pick entries that meet the following criteria: 1. Near a daily cycle low with oversold RSI when seeking to go long with gains of +/-10-15% 2. Near a weekly cycle low with oversold RSI or below 50 level, you go long for +/-20-30% 3. Near a yearly low with oversold RSI or below 50 level, you go long for a +/-50-100%. With yearly lows one must be cognisant of Wykoff accumulation, it usually happens and can be quite frustrating to wait so one must buy with that in mind so that capital is not tied up for longer without appreciation. Be on the lookout, take partial profits at turning points (daily cycle high) and buy back (daily cycle low). For examples of the last scenario, one can look at the following charts: a) $JSEAPN - For 239 days (July 2022 to March 2023) the share was stuck in a range of +/-18% accumulating. One then must target buying the cycle low, sell the cycle high +/-15%. There were three such opportunities, one gets to grow capital by 15% while waiting for a breakout. The breakout comes and share quickly moves 25%. Often it happens a trader gets tired of sitting and sell, then the rally goes without them and causing psychological turmoil. b) $JSEANH for 218 days (March 2022 to October 2022) c) $JSESOL appears to be in this accumulation zone d) $JSEFSR for 234 days (October 2022 to June 2023) Conclusion : I believe as traders we would have rather been buying things and wait for dividends but our capital and time does not allow slow accumulation or endure long periods of inaction. We are working from a position where we must pursue returns above inflation in pursuit of financial freedom. If we can double or triple capital in a short time, we are making strides that give us an advantage. People like Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg achieved above life returns because they were able to move into spaces where they multiplied their wealth greatly. Consider yourself on this journey too for when you multiply your capital ten times, you can buy property or replace your nine to five incomes with dividends. So do not feel greedy when pursuing big returns in a short space of time. I live for these moves, the 10% in a week, 30% in 40 days or 100% in 90 days. We will not always get it right but if we build capital more times than we lose it, we are on our way.
JSE:APNEducation
by runyamhere
ASPEN - Inverted Head & ShouldersOur previous idea indicated a flag break which consequently failed but the chart has now developed into an inverted head and shoulders pattern which targets R204 zone initially. Ideally the bulls want to hold onto the up trending 20ema on any pullbacks. The inverted head and shoulders is a bullish indicator in the stock market. It is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern but inverted. The pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: the price falls to a trough and then rises; the price falls below the former trough and then rises again; finally, the price falls again but not as far as the second trough. Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward, toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs. The pattern completes when the price drops for the third time and then rises to break the neckline, confirming that bull has finally taken over.
JSE:APNLong
by Trader-Dan
Aspen Wedge Breakout looks promising to R194.76Falling Wedge has formed on Aspen. The price has broken out and looks like it's set to rally. A conservative trader could wait for a retest, or an impulse trader could trigger it now. 7>21>200 -Bullish RSI >50 Target - R194.76 SMC: Sell Side LIquidity Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. ABOUT THE COMPANY Aspen Pharmacare is a leading global pharmaceutical company with a deep footprint in both emerging and developed markets. Founded in South Africa: Aspen Pharmacare was founded in 1850 in South Africa, starting as a single pharmacy in Durban. Global Presence: Aspen has a strong international presence, with operations in about 56 countries across six continents. Product Range: The company’s primary business is in the provision of branded and generic pharmaceutical products, as well as infant nutritionals and consumer healthcare products. Leadership: The company was co-founded by South African businessman Stephen Saad, who remains the CEO. Significant Player in ARVs: Aspen is one of the world's largest suppliers of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for treating HIV/AIDS, contributing to the global fight against the disease. Manufacturing Prowess: Aspen owns and operates 23 manufacturing facilities across 15 sites, demonstrating its vast manufacturing capabilities.
JSE:APNLong
by Timonrosso