$JSE-CFRJSE:CFR
Testing support and making head and shoulders in the process.
Break bellow will be bearish.
CFR trade ideas
Richemont CFRRichemont closed above the 200-day MA this week. Support can be found at the 38.2% fib level R106.31.
Horizontal resistance around R113.50.
Trade Idea: Richemont (CFR)I've always viewed Richemont as a bull market stock. What do I mean? Well, when the ultra-wealthy look at their portfolio and see green, what better way is there to spend those after-tax gains on a fancy piece of jewelry? Similarly, red on their screen could see them refrain from stepping out and making a luxury purchase. This is where luxury stocks fit in. Over the last few months, the sector has been under pressure due to a drop-off in equity markets, not to mention the fact that the individual names (on JSE and in Europe) appear relatively expensive. On the back of a strong Rand, Richemont has been under pressure, declining from a peak of R135 in September to it's most recent lows of R88.74. Over the medium term I believe that lower levels are warranted however the short term technical setup may represent an opportunity to play to a potential short term 'bounce'. Both the RSI and MACD is signaling bullish divergence while the price is attempting to breach a 5/10MA cross. On this basis, I believe traders could look to take a buy/long position.
What about the out GDP figures and rand strength you may ask? Well, we have come off a low base and country's electricity supply is erratic. Q4 GDP? That could be a shocker. CFR could be a nice short term hedge.
These are the levels:
Buy/Long CFR at current levels 9112c
Stop-loss: 8850c
Take Profit Target: 9850c
$JSECFRJSE:CFR
Had nice really last few weeks but currently making rising wedge.
This morning trading just above bottom of it.
Be careful if you are long. If you are bearish wait for beak to take position.
Support levels need to hold, else trade idea is deadBroke out of a sideways channel, just to break back into the channel again. Trade idea could be dead if current support levels fail.
Richemont: Bulls and Bears still undecided after Trading Update?After last Friday's (11 Jan) release of a trading update by Richemont (CFR), we saw price temporarily breaking the R94/R95 resistance to hit a high of R96.28; but only to close at R94.68, with an 'indecision' Doji candlestick forming for the day.
Yesterday's (14 Jan) price action saw us closing below the critical R94/R95 area (at R93.90).
The R94/95 resistance area, and the R88/R89 support area still remain critical areas for a break either side.
Overall, I'm bearish.
Richemont - Positioning for upside following resultsRichemont has been consolidated over the past few months around the R 90.00/ R 95.00 levels..and has recently broken above a key resistance at R 95.00.. This following this mornings results coming inline with consensus. The stock is a good proxy for any good news coming from the US/ China trade talks and may possibly re-rate upwards.
I'm of the view the stock could possibly re-rating towards the R 110/ R 115 levels over the medium term.
Consolidation breakout with a 10320 targetMulti month consolidation breakout on Richemont. Gap close 10320 will be the first target after which consolidation is expected.
Richemont-Range boundJSE Richemont has been range bound between R88/R89 and R93/94 for the past 6 weeks. To the upside , a beak above the R93/94 resistance could open up to the R100 area; but on its way is has to break the 50dma which is around R95.50.
But a break below R88 could take us further down.
$JSECFRJSE:CFR
After failing to break to the upside $JSECFR gapped lower and will probably test bottom of the range.
$JSECFRJSE:CFR
Making long sideways base after big drop
Break above 9300/93500 will open 9850 as target maybe even 10000
Ultimate target gap close around 10350
Trade Idea: RichemontI've always viewed Richemont as a bull market stock. What do I mean? Well, when the ultra-wealthy look at their portfolio and see green, what better way is there to spend those after-tax gains on a fancy piece of jewelry? Similarly, red on their screen could see them refrain from stepping out and making a luxury purchase. This is where luxury stocks fit in. Over the last few months, the sector has been under pressure due to a drop-off in equity markets, not to mention the fact that the individual names (on JSE and in Europe) appear relatively expensive. On the back of a strong Rand, Richemont has been under pressure, declining from a peak of R135 in September to it's most recent lows of R88.74. Over the medium term I believe that lower levels are warranted however the short term technical setup may represent an opportunity to play to a potential short term 'bounce'. Both the RSI and MACD is signaling bullish divergence while the price is attempting to breach a 5/10MA cross. Additionally, the Money Flow Index (MFI ) is turning up and applying a 20 (twenty) period moving average on the MFI we can see the indicator moving above this level (the MFI) which can be used as a signal to go long. See red vertical lines.
On this basis, I believe traders could look to take a buy/long position.
What about the out GDP figures and rand strength you may ask? Well, we have come off a low base and country's electricity supply is erratic. Q4 GDP? That could be a shocker. CFR could be a nice short term hedge.
These are the levels:
Buy/Long CFR below 89.50c
Stop-loss: 8650c
Take Profit Target: 9850c
Richemont Has More Downside to Come After Brief ReliefRichemont is one of the world’s leading luxury goods groups. The Group’s luxury goods interests encompass some of the most prestigious names in the industry, including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Piaget, Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger-LeCoultre, IWC, and Montblanc.
The history of growth in group sales was driven by a number of factors including geographic spread, the mix of sales by product type and by distribution channel. Sales growth has also been derived from the acquisition of new businesses which combine unique design with traditional skills.
Operating expenses increased by 14% for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed company during the year amid adverse exchange rate effects, this had an obvious effect on Richemont’ s share price, compared to the 13% increase in purchases through Richemont’ s own boutiques. Shares recently fell 6.4 percent after it said sales growth slowed and management struck a cautious note. The sales numbers were hurt by moves to combat the grey market and efforts by the Chinese government to discourage consumers from spending overseas.
For the financial year ended 31 March 2018, Richemont reported sales of EUR 10 979 million, operating profit of EUR 1 844 million and profit for the year of EUR 1 221 million.
Let's look at the technicals.
Weekly: I am looking for a price move back down to the previous low and a bit beyond before looking to trade the reversal. The low could reach as far as 70 and perhaps even 65.
From that point I will be looking for signs of a reversal.
Daily: I am expecting a rally at some point soon. This will form a correction for further downside. I will look to trade the next wave to the downside when I see confirmation.
CFR levelsWill look to allocate off the shaded area, in the coming days
- Some interesting trend-lines in play here
- I find this article curious, which states that JSE:NPN and JSE:CFR have made up large chunks of the gains, in J203 recently.
- Interesting price action in JSE:NPN at the time of the articles publication, 700 could be dragging this with it. I find it interesting we didn't see much reaction in JSE:CFR
Research: Richemont - Hanging Man Formation The share is developing a very interesting formation today - a hanging man (bearish), at the prior swing high/resistance.
