Our opinion on the current state of FAMBRANDS(FBR)Famous Brands (FBR) is Africa's largest branded fast-food franchisor, operating 2925 restaurants across seventeen brands, with 2574 restaurants in South Africa, 62 in the UK, and 76 in other parts of Africa and the Middle East. The company owns iconic South African brands such as Wimpy, Debonairs Pizza, and Steers. For the last two years, even before COVID-19, Famous Brands has faced challenges in a tough economic environment, with South African consumers hit hard by rising fuel costs, load shedding, unemployment, and high indebtedness. The retail fast-food industry has become increasingly competitive, further complicating the company's growth prospects.
Famous Brands has been working to grow its signature brands, but these have not yet performed as well as its leading brands like Wimpy and Steers. The acquisition of Gourmet Burger Kitchen (GBK) in the UK in 2016, just before the Brexit vote, proved to be a major misstep. Purchased for R2.3 billion, GBK's performance was disappointing, and Famous Brands was forced to write off the value of the acquisition and cease financing it in April 2020. On 14th October 2020, the company announced that GBK was placed into administration in the UK.
During the COVID-19 lockdown, many of Famous Brands' restaurants were not allowed to trade, which further impacted its operations. In response, the company has simplified its menus to focus on the most profitable offerings and improved its take-away and delivery options.
In its results for the six months ending 31st August 2024, Famous Brands reported:
- Revenue up 2%
- Headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 9%
The company attributed these results to prudence in managing its cost base, although its operating profit margins were impacted by lower volumes and overhead cost pressures. The share has been performing well since hitting a low on 10th June 2024 (at 4774c), starting a new upward trend.
With a P:E ratio of 13.76 and a dividend yield of 3.77%, the share is still considered reasonable value. As a leading player in South Africa's fast-food industry, Famous Brands serves as a barometer of consumer confidence and spending, making it a key stock to watch in the South African market.
FBR trade ideas
$JSEFBR - Famous Brands: Technical Reasons For OptimismSee link below for previous analysis.
FBR stock has been in a downtrend since January 2022 but the are reasons for optimism.
The downtrend is forming a falling wedge which has bullish reversal implications.
The MACD is making higher lows giving a bullish convergence signal.
The key level to watch now is 4600 cps but i will stay neutral until price breaks out decisively from the wedge pattern.
Rising wedge on Famous brands continues bearish sentimentA bearish sentiment continues on Famous brands with the a rising wedge pattern developing on a daily price chart. Price has broken down and if it closes below and it will probable that it will go down all the way to a first target of R55.
Moving Averages 7<21<200
RSI <50
Our opinion on the current state of FBRFamous Brands (FBR) is Africa's largest branded fast-food retail franchisor with seventeen brands and 2898 restaurants. It has 2522 restaurants in South Africa, 65 in the UK and 311 in the rest of Africa and the Middle East. The company owns well-known South African brands like Wimpy, Debonairs Pizza and Steers. For the last two years, even before COVID-19, the company has been battling to grow in an environment where the consumer has been hammered by rising fuel costs, loadshedding, rising fuel costs, unemployment, and high indebtedness. The retail fast food industry has become increasingly cut-throat. Famous Brands had been aggressively growing its signature brands, but as yet they were not performing as well as its leading brands (Wimpy, Steers etc.). The acquisition of GBK in the UK appears to be a major blunder just before the Brexit vote. This was purchased in late 2016 for R2,3bn and Famous Brands is being forced to write off what was paid for it and has finally ceased financing it in April 2020. On 14th October 2020, Famous Brands announced that GBK was put into administration in the UK. During lockdown, most of its restaurants were not allowed to trade. The company has simplified its menus to focus on the most profitable offerings and improved its take-away and delivery options. In its results for the six months to 31st August 2023 the company reported revenue up 10% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 7%. The company's net asset value (NAV) increased 20% to 941c per share. The company said, "The Group's finance costs increased by 35% (excluding the settlement of the interest rate swap in the prior period) mainly due to cumulative interest hikes of 275 basis points during the review period and the drawdown of our credit facility". The share has been recovering since the impact of COVID-19 in March 2020. We believe it will continue to perform well.
Our opinion on the current state of FBRFamous Brands (FBR) is Africa's largest branded fast-food retail franchisor with seventeen brands and 2850 restaurants. The company owns well-known South African brands like Wimpy, Debonairs Pizza and Steers. For the last two years, even before COVID-19, the company has been battling to grow in an environment where the consumer has been hammered by rising fuel costs, loadshedding, rising fuel costs, unemployment, and high indebtedness. The retail fast food industry has become increasingly cut-throat. Famous Brands had been aggressively growing its signature brands, but as yet they were not performing as well as its leading brands (Wimpy, Steers etc.). The acquisition of GBK in the UK appears to be a major blunder just before the Brexit vote. This was purchased in late 2016 for R2,3bn and Famous Brands is being forced to write off what was paid for it and has finally ceased financing it in April 2020. On 14th October 2020, Famous Brands announced that GBK was put into administration in the UK. During lockdown, most of its restaurants were not allowed to trade. The company has simplified its menus to focus on the most profitable offerings and improved its take-away and delivery options. In its results for the year to 28th February 2023 the company reported revenue up 15% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 37%. The company said, "With many consumers working in hybrid and remote jobs, mealtimes have become more flexible and spread across the day. Evening sit-down trade has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and consumers tend to make earlier bookings. The advent of appealing, user-friendly apps and changing consumer expectations have unlocked food delivery as a sustainable category". In a trading statement for the six months to 31st August 2023 the company estimated that HEPS would be between a gain of 3% and a loss of 17% compared with the previous period. The share has been recovering since the impact of COVID-19 in March 2020. We believe it will continue to perform well.
Famous Brands poised for upside - C&HCup and Handle has formed on Famous Brands since the breakout of the downside.
We see the liquidity is thin as the volatility(jumpy) motion is high...
This is why I would make a large gap between E and Sl...
Other signs confirm upside including:
Price>200
RSI>50
Target R77.62 however. I do want to see more of a definitive break above the Brim level before all systems go.
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Formation:
Famous Brands was founded in 1969 in South Africa. It started as a single restaurant called Steers, known for its flame-grilled burgers.
Name Origin:
The name "Famous Brands" reflects the company's growth strategy and ambition to become a renowned and recognized player in the restaurant and fast-food industry.
Steers:
Steers is one of the flagship brands under Famous Brands. It was founded by George Halamandres and opened its first store in 1960 in Joubert Park, Johannesburg. Famous Brands acquired Steers in 1984.
Wimpy:
Wimpy is another well-known brand under Famous Brands. It was originally founded in Chicago in the United States but became popular in South Africa. Famous Brands acquired Wimpy South Africa in 1987.
Mugg & Bean:
Mugg & Bean is a coffee shop and restaurant chain under Famous Brands. It was established in 1996 and offers a variety of coffee, baked goods, and meals in a relaxed setting.
Expansion:
Famous Brands has expanded its brand portfolio through acquisitions over the years, including the purchase of brands like Milky Lane, Debonairs Pizza, Fishaways, and House of Coffees.
Global Presence:
Famous Brands has a presence in several African countries and has also expanded into international markets, including the United Kingdom and the Middle East.
Franchise Model:
Many of Famous Brands' brands operate on a franchise model, allowing local entrepreneurs to own and operate their own restaurants under the company's established brand names.
Famous Brands - Targeting R51.50 ?FBR has been struggling to regain TL support (blue) for the last few trading sessions and now looks like it has finally broken its uptrend. There is a good area of support at the horizontal line further below at around R51.50 which should provide a good long opportunity. However, with these illiquid stocks, it might be a good idea to nimble beforehand, possibly anywhere below R55 should it get there.
$JSEFBR - Famous Brands: Is It Time To Feast On Valuations? This is primarily for the long-term investor and I highly recommend getting the corporate commissioned research done by Standard Bank Securities, published 06.03.2023 on their LinkedIn page.
SBG Securities have a Future Value Valuation Range between R76-89.
Investing.com Pro is not too far off with a fair value of R94,62.
Technically, the share looks to have a long-term low in at 1950 after a very large bear.
I must say that the advance from 1950 to 8374 is not the most convincing though it could be a leading diagonal.
Aggressive traders can use a stop-loss below 5058.
FAMOUS BRANDS - Long IDEAStock has been oversold and recently published results.
Positive divergence on the stochastics at a support level.
Possible move up from this low risk/reward level to first target level of R56.00 then possibly above R60.
A daily close below R50 will be viewed as very bearish (possible H/S pattern as well).
Famous Brands: A Steady Trend Higher. Now +43%It's been just over 13 months and my FBR long idea is up by 43%. Today it tested R60 but is still below the year-to-date highs, which I believe will be tested again and perhaps even surpassed.
Yesterday, the company released a market update, which appeared very decent. I think you remain long this one, with a trailing stop.
The original 03 August 2020 idea has been attached.
For more real-time insights and ideas, get in touch today.
FAMOUS BRANDS 🍔🥤🌭- LONG Idea- The share looks to be in the late stages of accumulation with a nice pattern displaying contraction in volatility (flat top triangle)
- A break on volume could see price move towards the 200 moving average (weekly) which is currently in the R80 zone (The price it was in the beginning 2020)
- A close below R43 would negate the idea and be bearish for the stock.
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
$JSEFBR Famous Brands. Looking to move higherFamous Brand was beaten down from 7000 levels to 2000 level on COVID news. Since then it has been on a upward trajectory with resistance around 5000 levels. Watch for a break of that 5000 level and a daily close above that level for a move to higher levels. Targets would be 5450, 6370 and eventually a reclaim of pre COVID levels.
No position.