Our opinion on the current state of HYPROP(HYP)Hyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa, with some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the north. It owns some of South Africa's best-known shopping malls, including Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater.
The company has been impacted to some extent by the fall-off in consumer spending, reflected in lower trading densities. Currently, the share is trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39, which, in our view, makes it a good buy. The new CEO, Morne Wilken, is focused on innovative strategies such as building rooftop gardens and offering shared workspaces to attract customers back to its shopping malls.
In its results for the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported distributable income up 14.5% and a loan-to-value (LTV) of 36.3%. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased by 24.1%, and the company's net asset value (NAV) increased by 1.7% to 5967c per share. The company stated, "Cash collections from tenants in the SA and EE portfolios of 99.8% and 100.8% of net billings for the period, respectively. Strong liquidity position with R807 million of cash and R1.1 billion of available bank facilities as at 31 December 2024."
Technically, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been rising ever since. Hyprop is trading well below its NAV and on a P:E of 14.32. We still see it as a potential buying opportunity. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 15th August 2024 at 3439c per share. It has since moved up to 4288c, reflecting a gain of 24.7% in just 7 months.
On 23rd September 2024, the company announced the sale of its interests in Nigeria and Ghana for a combined value of just over R1 billion. The cash from this sale will further strengthen its balance sheet.
HYP trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of HYPROP(HYP)Hyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that specialises in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa and some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the North. It owns some of South Africa's best-known shopping malls like Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. It has been impacted to some extent by the fall-off in consumer spending through lower trading densities.
This share is currently trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39 - which in our view makes it a good buy. The new CEO, Morne Wilken, is intent on building roof-top gardens and offering shared workspaces to lure customers back to its shopping malls.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024 the company reported net operating income up 6,1% and distributable income per share down 8,6%. The company's net asset value (NAS) fell 4,8% to 6032c per share and its loan-to-value (LTV) was stable at 36,4%. The company reported, "Strong liquidity position with R803 million of cash and R2 billion of available bank facilities - Euro30 million (R600 million) reduction in euro borrowings in line with debt amortisation/ reduction strategy - R500 million new capital raised through the FY2023 DRIP."
In a pre-close operating update for the four months to 31st October 2024 the company reported, "Key trading metrics continued to improve, other than foot count which was in line with the comparative period, showing the results of our continuing efforts to enhance the relevance and competitiveness of our nine centres (four in the Western Cape and five in Gauteng). Both tenants' turnover and trading density continue to grow because of our ongoing repositioning initiatives and leasing strategies aimed at optimising our tenant mix, coupled with improved consumer sentiment."
Technically, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been rising ever since although the recent results were a set-back as well as its exposure to Pick 'n Pay stores. Pick 'n Pay stores are anchor tenants in all Hyprop shopping malls - so the likelihood that Pick 'n Pay may close as many as 40 of its underperforming stores is a major concern. Despite this, Hyprop is trading at well below its NAV and on a P:E of 14,56.
We still see it as a potential buying opportunity. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 15th August 2024 at 3439c per share. It has since moved up to 4360c - a gain of 26% in just over 3 months. On 23rd September 2024 the company announced the sale of its interests in Nigeria and Ghana for a combined value of just over R1billion. The cash will strengthen its balance sheet.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPROP(HYP)Hyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on high-quality shopping malls in South Africa, with additional interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the North. Some of the country's most iconic shopping malls, such as Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater, are part of Hyprop's portfolio. The company has been affected by a decline in consumer spending, which has led to lower trading densities in its malls.
Despite these challenges, Hyprop is currently trading at close to half its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39, making it an attractive buying opportunity in our view. The company's new CEO, Morne Wilken, is exploring innovative ways to attract customers back to its malls, including building rooftop gardens and offering shared workspaces.
In its financial results for the year ending 30th June 2024, Hyprop reported a 6.1% increase in net operating income, but distributable income per share fell by 8.6%. The company's net asset value (NAV) dropped by 4.8% to 6032c per share, while its loan-to-value (LTV) ratio remained stable at 36.4%. Hyprop also highlighted its strong liquidity position, with R803 million in cash and R2 billion in available bank facilities. The company has also been reducing its euro-denominated borrowings as part of its debt reduction strategy and raised R500 million in new capital through the FY2023 dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP).
Technically, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been on the rise since then, despite setbacks such as its exposure to Pick 'n Pay stores. Pick 'n Pay, which serves as an anchor tenant in many of Hyprop's shopping malls, has plans to close up to 40 underperforming stores, which presents a concern for the company.
Nevertheless, with Hyprop trading well below its NAV and at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.48, we still see it as a buying opportunity. It was added to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 15th August 2024 at 3439c per share and has since increased to 4558c, representing a 32% gain in just over one month.
On 23rd September 2024, Hyprop announced the sale of its interests in Nigeria and Ghana for a combined value of just over R1 billion. This sale will further strengthen the company's balance sheet, positioning it well for future growth.
$JSEHYP - HYPROP Inv Ltd: A Close Up View - Still BullishFirst time coverage; see link for long-term view.
The 2020 bottom has held firm.
The rally to 3903 cps unfolded in five wave as a leading diagonal for wav (2).
The correction to 2524 cps for wave 92) looks complete; 2524 in the invalidation level for this view and should be the stop-loss level for more aggressive traders.
If this wave count is correct, the stock is now in the early stages of what should be a very powerful impulse wave (3) which will also unfold in five waves.
$JSEHYP - HYPROP Inv. Ltd: The Big Picture Looks BullishFirst time coverage
The 13 year bull market from 2003 to 2016 unfolded in five waves.
The big bear down to 1447 cps can be viewed as a zigzag though the internal wave count is not visible on this timeframe.
If the bear is over, 1447 cps should hold and is therefore the key invalidation level.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPROP(HYP)Hyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that specialises in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa and has some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the north. It owns some of South Africa's best-known shopping malls like Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. It has been impacted to some extent by the fall-off in consumer spending through lower trading densities. This share is currently trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39 - which in our view makes it a good buy.
The new CEO, Morne Wilken, is intent on building rooftop gardens and offering shared workspaces to lure customers back to its shopping malls. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company reported a loan-to-value (LTV) of 37.4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 111.3c compared with 226.1c in the previous period. The company said, "The SA portfolio's tenant turnover increased by 5.6%, while trading density grew by 4.9%, and average monthly foot count increased to 7 million, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year. Retail vacancies for the SA portfolio were well controlled at 1.3%."
In a pre-close update, the company reported, "Foot count increased 5.7% compared to the prior comparable period and tenant turnover increased by 2.1%. The vacancy rate was 1.7% (1.9% including Table Bay Mall) at 31 May 2024."
Technically, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been rising ever since although the recent results were a setback as well as its exposure to Pick 'n Pay stores. Pick 'n Pay stores are anchor tenants in all Hyprop shopping malls - so the likelihood that Pick 'n Pay may close as many as 40 of its underperforming stores is a major concern. Despite this, Hyprop is trading at below half of its NAV and on a P:E of 10.9. We see it as a potential buying opportunity.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPHyprop (HYP) is a prominent real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa, with additional interests in Eastern Europe and other parts of Africa. Its portfolio includes well-known malls such as Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. The company has faced challenges due to reduced consumer spending, leading to lower trading densities. However, it is currently trading at approximately half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
The appointment of a new CEO, Morne Wilken, brings a fresh perspective, with plans to implement initiatives like rooftop gardens and shared workspaces to attract customers back to its malls. Despite setbacks, such as a decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS) from 226.1c to 111.3c compared to the previous period, the company has reported positive metrics. These include a 5.6% increase in tenant turnover, a 4.9% growth in trading density, and a 5.8% rise in average monthly foot count, indicating resilience and potential for growth.
However, Hyprop faces challenges related to its exposure to anchor tenant Pick 'n Pay stores, which may close up to 40 underperforming locations. This development raises concerns about the impact on Hyprop's rental income and overall performance.
Despite these challenges, Hyprop's current valuation, trading below its NAV and with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.9, suggests it may be undervalued. Investors should carefully consider the potential risks associated with Pick 'n Pay store closures and the broader economic environment before making investment decisions regarding Hyprop.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPHyprop (HYP) is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa, with some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the North. Among its assets are well-known shopping malls like Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. The company has felt the impact of decreased consumer spending, leading to lower trading densities. Currently trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39, we view this as an attractive investment opportunity.
Under the leadership of the new CEO, Morne Wilken, Hyprop is focusing on innovative strategies to attract customers back to its shopping malls, including the development of rooftop gardens and shared workspaces.
In its results for the six months ending on 31st December 2023, the company reported a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 37.4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 111.3c, compared to 226.1c in the previous period. The company noted positive trends in its South African portfolio, with increases in tenant turnover, trading density, and foot traffic. Retail vacancies for the South African portfolio remained well-controlled at 1.3%.
From a technical standpoint, the share price found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been on an upward trajectory since then, despite the setback in the recent results. We perceive this as a buying opportunity, considering the company's strong fundamentals and potential for growth.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPHyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa and some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the North. It owns some of South Africa's best-known shopping malls like Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. It has been impacted to some extent by the fall-off in consumer spending through lower trading densities.
This share is currently trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39 - which in our view makes it a good buy. The new CEO, Morne Wilken, is intent on building rooftop gardens and offering shared workspaces to lure customers back to its shopping malls.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2023, the company reported an 18% increase in distributable income per share and a loan-to-value (LTV) of 36,3%. The company said, "Tenant turnover increased by 12.8% and 15.9% in SA and EE, respectively - Retail vacancies maintained at very low levels of 1.2% in SA and 0.3% in EE - Trading densities grew by 11.8% in SA and 16.9% in EE."
In a pre-close update on 30th November 2023, the company reported that in the 4 months to 31st October 2023 the vacancy rate was 1,4% and foot count was up 6,8%. The company said, "At Somerset Mall, the new Checkers Fresh X opened in November 2023 and Pick n Pay simultaneously completed the revamp of its store to a Pick n Pay Compact Hypermarket. "Cinema Connect", a new compact food offering to support the Ster Kinekor reconfiguration project experienced some delays and will launch during Q3 of 2024."
In a trading update on the 2023 festive season, the company reported tenant turnover up 8% in South Africa with trading density up 7,5%. Foot count was up 4,1%. In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company estimated that distributable income would fall by between 10% and 15% "...mainly due to higher interest costs."
Technically, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has been rising ever since although the recent results were a setback. We see it as a buying opportunity.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPHyprop (HYP) is a prominent real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in high-quality shopping malls primarily located in South Africa, with some interests in Eastern Europe and Northern Africa. It boasts ownership of several well-known South African shopping malls, including Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. The company has faced challenges due to reduced consumer spending, leading to lower trading densities. Currently, the share is trading at nearly half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39, which we believe presents an attractive buying opportunity.
Under the leadership of the new CEO, Morne Wilken, Hyprop is focusing on innovative strategies such as building rooftop gardens and offering shared workspaces to entice customers back to its shopping malls.
In its financial results for the year ending on June 30, 2023, the company reported an 18% increase in distributable income per share and a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 36.3%. Hyprop noted, "Tenant turnover increased by 12.8% and 15.9% in SA and EE, respectively, retail vacancies remained at very low levels of 1.2% in SA and 0.3% in EE, and trading densities grew by 11.8% in SA and 16.9% in EE."
In a pre-close update on November 30, 2023, Hyprop reported that during the four months leading up to October 31, 2023, the vacancy rate was at 1.4%, and foot traffic increased by 6.8%. The company also highlighted developments at Somerset Mall, where Checkers Fresh X and Pick n Pay revamped their stores. Additionally, "Cinema Connect," a new compact food offering, was set to launch in the third quarter of 2024 to support the Ster Kinekor reconfiguration project.
In a trading update on the 2023 festive season, Hyprop reported tenant turnover growth of 8% in South Africa, with trading density up by 7.5%. Foot traffic also increased by 4.1%.
From a technical perspective, the share found support at 2562c in November 2023 and has since been on an upward trajectory. This positive trend makes it a favorable buying opportunity in our assessment.
Hyprop ready to head HIGHER to R36.00Cup and Handle has officially formed on the daily chart.
This was confirmed by the bulls that there is upside to come when the price stayed above the 200MA.
Now once we get our breakout, we'll be more inclined for further upside and demand.
Target R36.02
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Foundation and Listing:
Hyprop Investments Limited was founded in 1987 and is listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) under the ticker HYP.
Market Capitalization:
As of January 2024, Hyprop has a market capitalization of approximately R10.9 billion.
Primary Focus:
The company is a retail-focused Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), owning and managing a substantial portfolio of mixed-use precincts.
Portfolio Value:
Its portfolio is valued at around R40 billion, underpinning dominant retail centers in key economic nodes.
International Presence:
Beyond South Africa, Hyprop has a significant presence in Eastern Europe.
Diverse Property Portfolio:
In South Africa, Hyprop's portfolio includes 12 prime shopping centers. The company also has exposure to malls in sub-Saharan Africa through Atterbury Africa.
Double Bottom Bullish Hyprop AnalysisHyprop Investment Ltd
1. Price Formation: The price has previously broken out from a W -double bottom-price formation on a daily chart .
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is above the 21-day MA.
3. 200-day Moving Average is below the Price.
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is > than 50.
6. Price Target:34,98
The company
Hyprop Investments Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in shopping malls in South Africa and other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. The company's portfolio consists of large, high-quality shopping centres in key metropolitan areas.
Hyprop's properties typically feature a mix of local and international retailers, making them attractive destinations for shoppers. By owning and managing these malls, Hyprop generates rental income, which it then distributes to shareholders as dividends.
The company operates by generating income through its property investments, typically through rental income, and has policies in place for property management, development, and investment that guide its growth and operational strategies. Like all REITs, Hyprop would typically distribute a significant portion of its income to shareholders, making it an avenue for investors who wish to have regular income through dividends.
Our opinion on the current state of HYPHyprop (HYP) is a leading property real estate investment trust (REIT) that specialises in high-quality shopping malls in South Africa and some interests in Eastern Europe and Africa to the North. It owns some of South Africa's best-known shopping malls like Rosebank, Canal Walk, Hyde Park, and Clearwater. It has been impacted to some extent by the fall-off in consumer spending through lower trading densities. This share is currently trading at close to half of its net asset value (NAV) of R63.39 - which in our view makes it a good buy. The new CEO, Morne Wilken, is intent on building roof-top gardens and offering shared workspaces to lure customers back to its shopping malls. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported an 18% increase in distributable income per share and a loan-to-value (LTV) of 36,3%. The company said, "Tenant turnover increased by 12.8% and 15.9% in SA and EE, respectively - Retail vacancies maintained at very low levels of 1.2% in SA and 0.3% in EE - Trading densities grew by 11.8% in SA and 16.9% in EE". In a pre-close update on 30th November 2023 the company reported that in the 4 months to 31st October 2023 the vacancy rate was 1,4% and foot count was up 6,8%. The company said, "At Somerset Mall, the new Checkers Fresh X opened in November 2023 and Pick n Pay simultaneously completed the revamp of its store to a Pick n Pay Compact Hypermarket. "Cinema Connect", a new compact food offering to support the Ster Kinekor reconfiguration project experienced some delays and will launch during Q3 of 2024". Technically, the share found support at 2562c and looks like good value. We see it as a buying opportunity.
Hyprop Analysis: Charting the Course to a Price Target of 26.Hyprop Analysis: Charting the Course to a Price Target of 26.
Hyprop Investment Ltd
1. Price Formation: The price has previously broken out from a Reverse inverted Cup &Handle price formation on a daily chart and hit a target. Bearish sentiment.
2. Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA.
3. 200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is < than 50.
6. Price Target:26
The company
Hyprop Investments Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in shopping malls in South Africa and other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. The company's portfolio consists of large, high-quality shopping centres in key metropolitan areas.
Hyprop's properties typically feature a mix of local and international retailers, making them attractive destinations for shoppers. By owning and managing these malls, Hyprop generates rental income, which it then distributes to shareholders as dividends.
The company operates by generating income through its property investments, typically through rental income, and has policies in place for property management, development, and investment that guide its growth and operational strategies. Like all REITs, Hyprop would typically distribute a significant portion of its income to shareholders, making it an avenue for investors who wish to have regular income through dividends.
Hyprop showing strong upside with property in SA -R36.35C&H has formed on the daily with the price breaking above the brim level.
Property market in SA is shining and we are seeing this with a couple of stocks.
Other indicators confirm upside including:
7>21
Price>200
RSI>50
Target R36.35
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Hyprop Investments Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on owning, managing, and developing shopping centers and other commercial properties.:
REIT Structure:
Hyprop operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which means it is required to distribute a significant portion of its earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends.
Property Portfolio:
The company primarily invests in high-quality shopping centers and commercial properties, both in South Africa and other countries.
Retail Focus:
Hyprop's primary focus is on retail properties, and it aims to create appealing shopping destinations that cater to a wide range of consumers.
Diverse Portfolio:
The company's property portfolio includes a mix of shopping centers, office spaces, and other commercial properties.
Shopping Centers:
Hyprop's shopping centers are strategically located in major cities and towns, serving as hubs for retail, entertainment, and social activities.
Notable Properties:
Some of Hyprop's notable properties include
Hyde Park Corner,
Canal Walk, and
Clearwater Mall, among others.
Expansion:
The company has sought to expand its property portfolio both within South Africa and internationally, with a focus on growing its presence in key markets.
HOW IT GOT ITS NAME
Hyprop Investments Limited derived its name from a combination of the words "Hyde Park Property."
The company's name reflects its origins and early focus on property investment in the upscale Hyde Park area of Johannesburg, South Africa. "Hyde Park" is a well-known and affluent suburb in Johannesburg, and it was likely chosen as a symbol of the company's commitment to high-quality real estate investments.
HYP: mean reversion tradeThe price action remains close to the lower range of the linear regression channel pattern.
This increases the likelihood of a mean reversion trade.
The 200-day might also act as some major support.
Above 3400 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the bullish stance.
MACD bullish crossover also supports upside price potential.
If bottom picking is your shtick - HYPROP - SA Listed PropertyYup, on the 1D JSE:HYP chart it's all bad:
- Bear channel (not bull flag!),
- MACD death cross,
- RSI @37 but looks like it has more to give,
- Price < 5EMA < 15EMA < 200DMA.
Yucky.
HOWEVER, if you enjoy rolling the dice on bottom picking, consider the following:
- During the peak of the Covid selloff (no vaccines, armageddon, etc) HYP was trading in a range call it R15 to R25
- Current price is at the top of this range - in other words, the price is now as good as it was when there was no hope.
- Depending on whether you're a glass half full or half empty person, you could view the current charts as a great confirmation for a short. End of days etc. Conversely, you could view it as an accumulation zone between R23.15 and R25.15. Things can't get any worse etc.
Regarding fundamentals, some additional considerations:
- HYP does have some exposure to Africa & the Balkans, but it is primarily an SA large shopping center owner (85%+ of income). Its prospects are thus primarily correlated with economic growth & the efficacy of the vaccine rollout over the next year.
- It has no KZN exposure & some of the best quality assets in WC (Somerset Mall & Canal Walk).
- It has very little office exposure, so work form home is not a valuation driver here.
- LTV's, especially after the Atterbury disposal, are now 35.8%. Low & safe, nothing to see here.
- It has completed its book build (read: your dilution is already factored in) @R28.00. The institutional types who do things like buy book builds were happy to pay 13% more than the current price.
- Its NAV Dec-2020: R74.48. June-2019: R95.78. Therefore it's trading at call it a 66% discount to NAV after Covid write downs were properly factored into NAV, and at call it a 75% discount to pre Covid NAV. That seems like a lot.
- Before the world ended it was paying divs in the R6.60 p.a. area. Even if only half of that is restored (R3.30), you're still looking at a 13-15% div.
To be clear, the price can still get worse, this thing is clearly rolling down the hill. However, if you have a medium term view and the stomach & balance sheet to ride out some volatility & drawdowns over the next 6 months, accumulating a position at R23-R25 or cheaper may pay off very handsomely over a 12 month period.
Safe trading
UC
ps. a nice summary of the risks involved: www.moneyweb.co.za