Pick n Pay (PIK) Near Buying ZoneWe have previously laid out a plan for a short entry on PIK (see linked idea), now we are in a range of taking profit & looking to go long. Ideally the following must give confidence in a bullish reversal:
1. Price forming a swing low on the daily time frame.
2. Price closing above the green resistance line.
Closing above the 10 day moving average would have been the third criteria but it some 10% above, too much profit to sit out. It would be great for price to go lower than R43.02 so that there is a longer runway to the upside. Failure to go lower means there is risk of any bounce turning bearish without going much higher. We will update as we see price action unfold.
PIK trade ideas
Pick N Pay downtrend about to continue to R23.20 - Fundamentals Downtrend has been forming on Pick n Pay since 8 Dec 2022.
It's been a difficult period for retailer and looks like there is more downside to come.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50 - Lower highs
Target R23.20
Apart from its distribution channel issues, I think the weakening rand is the main culprit for retailers downside.
There are a few fundamental reasons such as:
Import Costs:
Pick n Pay, like many other retailers, imports a significant portion of its products.
When the rand weakens, the cost of importing goods becomes relatively cheaper.
This may lead to lower procurement costs for Pick n Pay, allowing them to reduce prices and remain competitive.
Reduced Demand:
A weakening rand can indicate economic instability or uncertainty, consumers may feel worried about their finances and may become more price-sensitive and demand lower-priced goods.
This gives Pick n Pay the undesirable incentive to respond by reducing prices. (Not that we've seen this!)
Supplier Negotiations:
When the rand weakens, suppliers may face higher costs for raw materials or imported goods.
In order to maintain their business relationships and secure supply, suppliers might negotiate lower prices with retailers like Pick n Pay.
These cost reductions can be passed on to consumers through lower prices.
Inflation Pressure:
A weaker rand can lead to higher inflation. Imported goods become more expensive, which can lead to higher overall prices for consumers. If inflation rises faster than wages, consumers may cut back on spending.
EXPLAINED: Runaway GapLESSON OF THE DAY
Runaway Gap
A Runaway Gap is a continuation move where the price gaps in the middle of a trend e..g Up or Down.
The gap is a void (where no prices overlap between two candles)
And then the price follows the previous trend.
I like to think of a Runaway Gap as a horse that goes from trotting to galloping.
The trend then starts to accelerate and continue in the direction.
Specifics for this example:
· Previous price moves in a downtrend.
· Price then gaps.
· Price then follows the continuous downtrend.
Please react so I know to provide more daily lessons...
Pick n Pay big bearish formation with a runaway gap to R38.42Bearish box has formed over the last couple of months with Pick N Pay.
The price broke below the support and made a runaway gap.
This is a gap that runs in the direction and accelerates down the trend.
This is very bearish for the stock
200 >21>7
RSI<30
Target R38.42
Pick n Pay (PIK) Setting Up a TopPick n Pay price has fallen out of the rising wedge and has made several attempts at re-entry without success. Now watching price action into ex-dividend date likely to result in a top & see price move downwards.
The downward pull is expected to drive price to or below the blue trendline. If price goes below the blue trendline & goes lower than 27 September it opens a bigger door to testing the R43 level into March/April 2023.
$JSEPIK: Pick This Stock N You Will Pay....DearlyI probably do more grocery shopping at PnP than at any other store but it is one food share I avoid at all cost for investing.
The share price performance over the last five or so years has been underwhelming and continues to do so.
The company released a trading update for the 43 weeks ended 25 December 2022 today and despite improvements in sales, Mr Market did not seem to like it by gapping lower at market open and the share is still under pressure.
Load shedding is also providing major headwinds with diesel generation costs sky rocketing as the electricity crisis worsens.
All that said and done though, the technical picture is not any better.
This is not the best trending stock with price action very choppy and generally sideways.
The lows of August 2020 and March 2022 provide a two touch point support trendline where I will be looking for price to react.
The Group plans to release its financial results for the 52 weeks ended 26 February 2023 (FY'2023) early in May 2023 and until then, I will sit on my hands on this one.
PIK: some downside?A price action below 6330 supports a bearish trend direction.
Crossing above this level will negate the bearish stance.
The Elliott wave count supports wave c which is a correction.
Downside target set at 5760, which is close to its 200-day and week simple moving average.
Remains a risky trade.
PIK: recovery trade?A prie action above 5580 supports a bullish trend direction.
Crossing below this level will negate the bullish view.
Also starting to retract from the lower range of the linear regression channel pattern, supporting upside potential.
The target might be 6320.
The 200-day acted as some major support.
PIK(1) Momentum has turned lower following rejection at prior swing highs. (2) Looking for breach of incline support. (3) Threatening breach of monthly pivot at 5664c. (4) Previous sell at 5931c on 28 April saw move to 5145c.
Trading Levels:
Sell at 5701c
Target: 5315c
Stop-loss: 5905c
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PIK: mean reversion trade?Above 4300 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the bullish bias.
Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.
At the lower range of the linear regression channel pattern - this increases the likelihood of a mean reversion trade.
MACD crossover supports a change in trend direction to bullish.
RIS leaves enough room for further upside price potential.
Remains a risky trade.
PicknPay - LONG idea- Pick n Pay chart is offering a low risk entry for a long trade towards the swing highs ...
- Defensive play in the current global market volatility
- TP and SL on the chart
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.