Our opinion on the current state of REDEFINE(RDF)Redefine (RDF) is the second-largest real estate investment trust (REIT) in South Africa (after Growthpoint), with assets worth R72,9 billion against a market capitalization of R25,1 billion. The company primarily holds industrial and office properties, with investments in Poland, the UK, and Australia.
In our view, this is a massive REIT with significant exposure to South African office space. It is heavily impacted by developments in the South African economy, local political risk, and especially the elections. However, it remains stable, well-managed, and is currently trading well below the book value of its assets. Redefine previously announced that it would look to acquire a controlling interest in the Polish property company, EPP.
In its results for the year to 31st August 2024, the company reported revenue up 7,5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 57,3%. The company stated, "Coming off a prolonged trough, we can look forward to an upward property cycle in FY25, which will be gradual as the lingering effects of elevated interest rates are worked off."
In a pre-close update on 25th February 2025, the company reported an occupancy rate of 94,2% and tenant retention of 96,6%.
Technically, Redefine drifted down from its high of 1,250c in April 2015 to levels around 600c before falling sharply to 159c with the advent of the pandemic. It has since recovered but has been moving sideways and downwards since November 2021. It trades at about 57% of its net asset value (NAV).
To us, the share still looks oversold and cheap, but its loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is high, which adds some risk.
RDF trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of REDEFINE(RDF)Redefine (RDF) is South Africa's second-largest real estate investment trust, with assets valued at R72.9 billion and a market capitalization of R25.1 billion. The company primarily holds industrial and office properties and has investments in Poland, the UK, and Australia. Its significant exposure to South African office space makes it sensitive to the South African economy and political developments, including elections.
Despite these challenges, Redefine remains stable and well-managed, trading well below the book value of its assets. The company is pursuing a controlling interest in the Polish property company, EPP, expanding its international footprint. For the fiscal year ending 31st August 2024, Redefine reported a 7.5% increase in revenue and a 57.3% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Management anticipates a gradual property cycle recovery in FY25, contingent on easing interest rates.
Technically, the stock has faced a prolonged decline from its high of 1250c in April 2015, bottoming at 159c with the COVID-19 pandemic's impact. Though it has partially recovered, it has moved sideways and downward since late 2021. Redefine trades at around 64% of its net asset value (NAV), suggesting that it may be oversold and undervalued. However, its high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is a potential concern for investors seeking stability.
UPDATE Redefine Falling Flag break into a sideways range Falling Flag - Breakout took place on 18 Dec 2024.
The price stayed above 200MA but lingered between the range of 20MA.
We are seeing lower highs and lower lows. WHich means a broadening formation is forming between the bulls and the bears.
There is no strong indication when the price will rally but the analysis does remain the same until the price either hits the target or below the stop loss range.
The target is still set to R4.39.
Our opinion on the current state of REDEFINE(RDF)Redefine (RDF) is South Africa's second-largest real estate investment trust (REIT) after Growthpoint, with assets totaling R72.9 billion and a market capitalization of R25.1 billion. The company's portfolio is primarily composed of industrial and office properties, with significant investments in Poland, the UK, and Australia. As a REIT, Redefine is closely tied to the performance of the South African economy and political climate, particularly elections. Despite these challenges, Redefine remains stable and well-managed, trading at a valuation considerably lower than the book value of its assets.
Redefine has expressed interest in acquiring a controlling stake in the Polish property company, EPP. In its results for the six months ending February 29, 2024, the company reported revenue growth of 8.2%, while headline earnings per share (HEPS) declined by 14.6%. Redefine's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio stood at 42.6%, and its net asset value (NAV) was 780.3 cents per share, compared to a share price of 394 cents.
Technically, Redefine's share price has been on a downward trend from its peak of 1250 cents in April 2015, dropping to approximately 600 cents before plummeting to 159 cents with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it has since recovered, the share has been moving sideways and slightly downward since November 2021. It currently trades at around 50.5% of its NAV.
Despite this, Redefine still appears undervalued, offering an attractive opportunity for investors. However, its relatively high LTV remains a point of concern.
UPDATE Redefine just crossed above the Falling FlagFalling Flag formed on Redefine and the price is officially breaking up and out of the range.
This is bullish for the company as the JSE ALSI is also showing strong upside to come.
We also see the 7=21 and is about to cross.
Price>200 - Bullish
RSI>50
Target 4.39
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Redefine Properties Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust.
History
Redefine Properties was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
It is also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) as a secondary listing.
Type of Company:
Redefine Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT).
Diversified Portfolio:
Redefine has a diverse property portfolio that includes office buildings, retail centers, industrial properties, and other real estate assets.
Redefine Properties owns and manages a portfolio of over 500 properties valued at more than ZAR 70 billion as of March 2023.
The portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centers, industrial properties, and hotels.
The company has a well-diversified customer base, including multinational corporations, small and medium-sized enterprises, and government entities.
They own many famous buildings like
Alice Lane towers (Sandton)
Centurion Mall (Pretoria)
Kyalami Corner
East Rand Mall, Boksburg,
Rose Bank Mall
Benmore Gardens etc...
Is RDF Properties Zig-Zagging to R8.00 to redefine your pocket?JSE:RDF printed its last exciting high of R12.17 in April 2018. The stock has since been on an impulsive sell off that saw some buyers interested to correct the movement from R1.39 in March 2020. Price took another breather at R3.46 in April 2020 marking a level of interest.
Considering internal structure, price has been forming an upward slanted support since its first higher low of R1.71 in May 2020, which now price bullishly reacted from yesterday before closing at R3.35.
An overall look at market structure shows price in the middle of a Zig-Zag correction, at a potential start of the 3rd wave of the Zig-Zag's C-leg having a potential termination point around R8.00 before plunging impulsively to R1.40 for a market rebalance in the long term.
Confirmation of this onsetting bullishness will be on a bullish DAILY candle close above R3.46, the point of interest that the market printed. Long positions can then be initiated with aggressive targets set to R7.90, making use of a stop loss below R3.18.
Redefine needs to define its next breakout Redefine has been easy to probability predict in the last two years.
It's been on one strong trajectory down.
And after each crash, there is a relief rally to buy and profit from.
However, now we are in tricky territory.
There is a Broadening Triangle being formed which can break either way. That's the difficulty with Broadening patterns.
My bet is DOWN only because the overall trend is in a bear market. And the overall bias is down because the price is below the 200MA.
However, there needs to break a few strong levels.
1. The current support on the Broadening pattern.
2. The even strong support level established at R3.20.
My target if the price breaks down will be R3.11. However, it's not like we can do much with this information.
As an investor, I guess it's best to hold and wait for some kind of recovery.
As a short term trader, we can just watch the analysis play out as I doubt market makers have Redefine as an option to short.
We also need to look at the property index which has an influence on the market.
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Redefine Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in South Africa.
Overview:
Redefine Properties is one of the largest real estate investment trusts in South Africa.
Industry Focus:
The company primarily focuses on the ownership, management, and development of properties across various sectors, including retail, commercial, and industrial.
Diversified Portfolio:
Redefine's property portfolio includes a diverse range of assets such as office buildings, shopping centers, and industrial properties.
REIT Structure:
As a real estate investment trust, Redefine typically distributes a substantial portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders.
Our opinion on the current state of RDFRedefine (RDF) is the second largest real estate investment trust in South Africa (after Growthpoint) with assets worth R72,9bn against a market capitalisation of R25,1bn. The company mainly holds industrial and office properties with investments in Poland, the UK and Australia. In our view, this is a massive REIT which has a large exposure to South African office space. It is very much impacted by developments in the South African economy and by the local political risk and especially the elections. However, it is stable and well-managed and trading well below the book value of its assets. Redefine announced that it would look to acquire a controlling interest in the Polish property company, EPP. In its results for the year to 31st August 2023 the company reported revenue up 20,2% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 74,9%. The company's loan-to-value (LTV) was 41,1% and its net asset value (NAV) was 766c per share. The company said, "The group's distributable income decreased by 4.1% (FY22: increase of 26.1%) to R3.5 billion (FY22: R3.6 billion) for the year". Technically, Redefine has been drifting down from the high of 1250c made in April 2015 to levels around 600c and then fell sharply to 159c with the advent of the pandemic. It has recovered, but has been drifting sideways and downwards since November 2021. It trades at about than 47% of its NAV. To us the share still looks oversold and cheap.
Our opinion on the current state of RDFRedefine (RDF) is the second largest real estate investment trust in South Africa (after Growthpoint) with assets worth R72,9bn against a market capitalisation of R25,1bn. The company mainly holds industrial and office properties with investments in Poland, the UK and Australia. In our view, this is a massive REIT which has a large exposure to South African office space. It is very much impacted by developments in the South African economy and by the local political risk and especially the elections. However, it is stable and well-managed and trading well below the book value of its assets. Redefine announced that it would look to acquire a controlling interest in the Polish property company, EPP. In its results for the six months to 28th February 2023 the company reported revenue up 36,4% and headline earnings per share down 58%. The company's loan-to-value (LTV) was 40,9% and its net asset value (NAV) improved by 11,8% to 750,76c per share. The company said, "The retail portfolio showed improved trading densities and good letting activity underpinned by a general improvement in operating metrics. However, loadshedding and related costs are expected to impact on retail performance in the short term". In a pre-close update on 29th August 2023 the company said that occupancy was at 92,9% of gross lettable area (GLA). Technically, Redefine has been drifting down from the high of 1250c made in April 2015 to levels around 600c and then fell sharply to 159c with the advent of the pandemic. It has recovered, but has been drifting sideways and downwards since November 2021. It trades at about than 50% of its NAV. To us the share still looks oversold.
Redefine Trade Update still on the way down to R3.20 BUT...Symmetrical Triangle formed last year and the price broke below the apex.
It has been a very slow moving trade analysis, but that's what happens with blue chip companies.
The companies do what they can to fight for the price (and rightfully to do so).
21>7 >200 - Mixed
RSI <50 Bearish divergence
Target R3.20
ABOUT The company
Redefine Properties was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
It is also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) as a secondary listing.
Redefine Properties owns and manages a portfolio of over 500 properties valued at more than ZAR 70 billion as of March 2023. The portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centers, industrial properties, and hotels.
The company has a well-diversified customer base, including multinational corporations, small and medium-sized enterprises, and government entities.
They own many famous buildings like
Alice Lane towers (Sandton)
Centurion Mall (Pretoria)
Kyalami Corner
East Rand Mall, Boksburg,
Rose Bank Mall
Benmore Gardens etc...
UPDATE Redefine hit R3.20 Target and could turn up from hereWe based the short trade off a Symmetrical Triangle.
The price broke below and then took quite a while, but eventually hit the target at R3.20.
Now there is a new Cup and handle formation in the process. The 7 has crossed above the 21MA and there is a higher low creating an uptrend.
We need the price to break before we can expect a relief rally to the 200MA to R3.90.
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Redefine Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in South Africa.
It was founded in 1999, making it one of the older established REITs in South Africa.
Redefine Properties' portfolio included a diverse range of primarily commercial properties, such as offices, retail spaces, and industrial properties.
The company has made significant investments outside of South Africa as well, with assets in Australia, the United Kingdom, and Poland.
Redefine Properties managed assets worth over R90 billion.
Some of the properties include:
Rosebank Towers. Jozie.
90 Rivonia, Sandton, Johannesburg.
Mall of the South, Johannesburg:
Centurion Mall, Centurion:
Matsulu Shopping Centre, Mpumalanga:
RDF: forming a base?A price action above 320 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 340.
The target price is set at 360.
The stop-loss is set at 320.
The start of upside momentum supports the bullish trend direction.
Seems like the price action is building a base.
RDF: may we see some upside?A price action above 380 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further support is from the 200-day which might act as some support.
Increase exposure for a break above 400.
The target price is set at 410.
The stop-loss price is set at 370. Negate the idea for a break below this level.
Remains a risky trade.
Redefine showing downside to R3.20 thanks to a Symm TriSymmetrical Triangle formed on Redefine.
We saw the price breakout to the downside.
21>7 >200 MAs - Mixed
RSI <50 Bearish divergence
Target R3.20
ABOUT:
Redefine Properties Limited (Est. 1980s in JHB SA) is a leading South African real estate investment trust (REIT) and one of the largest property owners and managers in South Africa.
It has a diverse portfolio of properties that includes office, retail, industrial, and residential properties.
The company's portfolio of properties is valued at over R100 billion and spans across South Africa and several other African countries, including Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Mozambique.
Redefine looking ripe for the picking to R5.00 since Nov 2021! Redefine has been coming down since November 2021.
The channel was strong and continuous. That was until last year, where the price finally broke up and out of the channel.
This entered into a sideways consolidation range -hence creating a Symmetrical Triangle.
We are still in undecided mode and so we'll need to wait for a breakout before buying.
7 =21 - Undecided
Price>200MA - Bullish
RSI - Bullish divergence
Target R5.00
GENERAL INFO
Redefine Properties is a South African Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that is listed on the JSE in good 'ol Jozie.
The company owns and manages a diverse portfolio of commercial and retail properties in South Africa, as well as in other countries such as Australia and Poland.
Its portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centres, industrial properties, and hotels.
Some buildings you might know owned by redefine are:
Shopping Centers:
Eastgate Shopping Centre in Johannesburg
The Glen Shopping Centre in Johannesburg
Tyger Valley Shopping Centre in Cape Town
Hotels:
The Capital Mirage Hotel in Sandton, Johannesburg
The Capital Pearls Hotel in Sandton, Johannesburg
The Capital Empire Hotel in Sandton, Johannesburg
Office buildings:
The Capital on the Park in Sandton, Johannesburg
Redefine - Pulled back to supportRedefine has pulled back to support (around 388 - 390) after breaking its downtrend (yellow TL) and pushing to 440. This is probably a good area to build up a long position but keep enough dry powder for a further move lower at around 340 should this support not hold.
RDF: further upside potential?A price action above 400 supports a bullish trend direction.
Crossing below this level will negate the bullish stance.
Testing its 200-week simple moving average. Crossing above this level will classify the long-term trend as bullish.
Targetting 440 - which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
A scenario of walking the Bollinger Bands might occur.
Redefine PropertiesHighlighted as a buy/long on 4 occasions since May 2020 at 188c (all ideas attached as proof). Now 184% vs original level. Results out - market pleased.
Vertical lines on weekly chart reflects dates of comments.
- 11 May 2020
- 09 Nov 2020
- 26 May 2021
- 15 Sept 2021
Looks like it wants keep going...but of course if you've been long since last year then possible it's a good idea to reduce, some.
RDF: bouncing from major support?The narrow upward sloping range (inclining channel) remains of interest.
RSI leaves enough room for further upside price potential.
Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Above R4.30 supports a bullish trend direction.
Downside momentum is forming a trough - supporting a bullish trend direction.