$JSEREN: Renergen: Could It Be A Total Rest?See link below for previous analysis.
Renergen has yet to fulfil its potential and is yet to post a profitable year.
Much is written about the potential of the company and that is always the risk with commodity/resource stocks that list while still in their startup phase.
The chart does not look pretty.
Recent downside momentum, partially fueled by twitter/X commentary has pushed prices to levels last seen in 2021 and by the looks of things, price could go below 1000 zac and possibly make a new all time low, the total reset.
Last time I had a neutral stance but now I am full on bearish in the short-term.
REN trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of RENRenergen (REN) describes itself as an "...integrated alternative energy business" which invests in renewable energy projects in Africa. The company listed on the JSE in June 2015 and has been losing money every year since. This is reflected in its falling share price. The company is investing in liquified natural gas (LNG) and helium. Now it is planning to list on the Australian Stock Exchange - where it says its business will be better understood than on the JSE. The R125m rights issue was fully underwritten and enabled it to access a R218m loan facility. Its initial public offer (IPO) on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) was more than two times over-subscribed. It claims to have proven helium reserves of over 6bn cubic feet. On 18th May 2018, the US government identified helium as critical to national security causing the price to rise by 135%. On 10th December 2020, the company announced the development of an aluminium case which can keep vaccines cold for up to 30 days. This could be a game changer for the company. On 21st June 2021 the company announced a helium discovery at Evander with a concentration of 1,1%. On 9th March 2021, the company announced a significant gas strike in the Karoo and then on 12th April 2021 it announced that it had concluded its first deal to sell helium. In an announcement on 3rd November 2021 the company announced a 620% increase in 1P helium reserves - which caused the share to spike upwards. In its results for the year to 28th February 2023 the company reported revenue up 381% and a headline loss of 19,89c compared with a loss of 27,73c in the previous period. The company said, "Renergen, through its wholly owned subsidiary Tetra4 Proprietary Limited (“Tetra4”), commenced production of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) in September 2022 and successfully produced liquefied helium (“LHe”) in January 2023". In a quarterly report for the 3 months to 30th June 2023 the company reported an 88% increase in LNG production over the first quarter. The company said, "Two new wells spudded and showed signs of gas prior to reaching the target depth of 650 meters". The announcement of the first production of liquid helium from its Virginia gas project caused the share to rise by just over 9% - however, it remains in a long term downward trend. On 7th June 2023 the company announced that it had received $750m in further funding from Standard Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation for its Virginia Gas project. In a quarterly update on 26th June 2023 the company said, "US DFC approved US$ 500 million loan for Phase 2. New well Morpheus drilled, producing 3.2% helium and flow of 70,000 standard cubic feet per day". The share may be a speculative opportunity, but it is risky. We advise waiting for the share price to break up through its long-term downward trendline before buying.
Will JSE's Renergen ever "run again"?JSE:REN has had its share price suffer quite the beatdown since April 2022. Price has painted a clear and worrying Head and Shoulders pattern from February 2021 to date. Interesting developments however are keeping the instrument alive and invalidation of this huge H/S pattern could send the share price to levels never thought of before.
Considering the recent price action, the mini right shoulder is in progress within a falling channel, however we have closed this week strongly bullish after last week's close of an inverted hammer on the Weekly chart (morning star candlestick pattern). Price has also painted a somewhat 'double bottomish' structure at the support level. looking at the RSI, we have painted a lower low into oversold territories while price painted a higher low which is a bullish signal. Keeping in mind the bigger H&S pattern, long positions should be approached with extreme caution.
- Small long positions can be initiated when price starts to trade above R20.55, making use of a stop loss at R19.80. The position can be added onto when price trades and holds well above R24.30 while trailing the stop. interesting levels to look out for would be R28.50, R31.40 in the medium term, and if bullish momentum is sustained beyond these levels we can target R38.00~R43.90.
Another nasty side of the coin that may play out is price failing to sustain the bullish momentum beyond R23.50 and then strongly breaking the neckline of the H&S pattern to the downside, which may see price trickle down to R9.60 and lower. It must also be borne in mind that price may completely reverse from the R28.50~R31.40 zone as way to complete an even bigger shoulder and this zone needs to carefully monitored.
REN: counter-trend trade?A price action above 1830 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 1910.
The target price is set at 2010 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
The stop-loss price is set at 1730.
Bullish divergence (see the lower panel) busy unfolding.
Renergen running out of energy target to R9.33Descending Triangle or M Formation has formed on the daily for the company.
The price has merely broken below which doesn't make ait a strong sell signal.
However, there are signs of further downside to come.
200>21>7
RSI<50 (Sell divergence)
Target R9.33
Renegen lower ?So much hipe in this stock during 2022, and for good reason with its helium and natural gas story.
However, this is a high risk stock as it is still in its baby shoes.
Technical sentiment indicates that we might see #Renegen price even lower.
The downtrend in #Renegen share price is now trading on the right shoulder neckline of the head & shoulders pattern it has formed, with a potential price target of R10.90.
Tailwind for even lower prices is the broad negative sentiment in the markets due to macros and SA specific issues such as loadshedding.
Renergen - On the move..I expected REN to test horizontal support around R16 and for a while was looking like it was well on its way to do so, but has turned around quite sharply and decisively the last few trading days. It now looks like it is headed towards 25.50 - 26 where it should encounter its first real area of resistance again.
$JSEREN - Renergen: Back To Pre-Hype LevelsRenergen has become a retail favourite since late 2020.
I do not question the future potential of the company but the price over the last two years has been driven primarily by euphoria and speculation.
The bear from the 4390 all-time high still looks strong on the downside and is well contained by a steep falling channel.
There are no buy signals or reversal signs yet but it is a bit late to look at shorting so I will sit on my hands on this one.
TRADE UPDATE: Renergen in the money and now we wait for a breakRev Inv Cup and Handle formed on Renergen.
The price then broke below the Brim Level showing strong selling side to come.
Also on the Daily there is now a Symmetrical Triangle pattern When the price breaks it's likely to continue to the downside as the pattern si a continuation pattern by nature.
We saw strong downside to come from an even larger bearish formation on the weekly chart.
200>21>7
RSI<50
Target remains R12.52
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Renergen is a South African based energy company that specializes in the production and distribution of natural gas.
The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Renergen's main focus is on the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its flagship project, the Virginia Gas Project, located in the Free State Province of South Africa.
The company is the first and only company in South Africa to hold a resource license for the commercial production of natural gas.
Renergen's Virginia Gas Project is estimated to have over 40 years of reserves of natural gas, making it one of the largest gas reserves in the country.
The company's liquefaction plant is designed to produce up to 20 million cubic meters of LNG per annum, making it one of the largest LNG plants in Africa.
Renergen- Bursting higherAfter the recent news that their Virginia operation is officially pumping helium, we saw a couple of nice spikes in the price. Two gaps in a row to the upside which suggests that investors are piling in and buying at just about any price they can get. More significantly though, for me, is the fact that the price has burst through the 50 day moving average which in itself a bullish signal. Momentum has shifted and we can finally see some conviction and strength in the price.
There is a technical level of resistance just below R28.00 but this time I think we breach that and would not be surprised if REN makes a run toward the 200 day moving average, currently at around R32.00.
RENI am positive on energy innovation and the like, but I am also cognizant of the chart and price action. A possible bear flag structure is developing just below the share’s 50-EMA which could target the downside gap at 2970c. Short/sell trigger is a break and/or close below 3627c with a target of 3215c using a stop-loss of 3842c. Currently trading at 3670c. Note the 14-RSI RSI fluctuating around a neutral regime which may shift to bearish on any deteriorating price action.
Trading Levels:
Sell on a break and/or close below 3627c
Target: 3215c
Stop-loss: 3842c
RENERGEN - 2B Reversal- Price rallied to the swing highs and has printed a bearish reversal pattern...
- Expecting a cool off back to the support line where i will look for a long again
- A close above the high will be extremely bullish like squeeze up
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
Long Pivots: WHL & RENWithin my research, among the new segments I've been adding, is a slide called LONG PIVOTS:
It's geared to toward those with a short term view (intraday day and ultra short term traders), potentially looking for quick price appreciation.
Key Trading Levels For Buy/Long Side Continuation
The highlighted levels may or may not trigger during the upcoming trading session.
Blue Line = Buy Trigger
Red Line = Temporary Failure
Required: Needs to hold trigger zone with strong bids.
TF = Intraday, Ultra Short Term
RENERGEN AGAIN? Lets be fair and say that the R41.00 high was a bit of an "overshoot" but the picture looks a lot more eye-catching now after a 23% retracement. A bit of sanity is back in the price and what a coincidence, the price found its feet at the newly established support. I still think there's still some good news to come from their Helium explorations so from a fundamental perspective, things are still very positive. Technically too, the price is very over-sold at the moment after a lot of profit taking but I think now, the stage is set for another bounce...