Our opinion on the current state of WBOWBHO (Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Limited) has emerged as South Africa's leading construction company, a notable achievement given the challenges faced by industry counterparts such as Aveng and Murray & Roberts. With a market capitalisation surpassing R5 billion, WBHO has successfully diversified its operations beyond South African borders into other parts of Africa, Australia, and the United Kingdom, positioning itself as a significant player in the global construction sector.
For the fiscal year ending on 30th June 2023, WBHO reported a remarkable 38% increase in revenue and a 31% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). This growth was attributed to the exceptional performance of its African operations and significant progress in the United Kingdom, particularly in the latter half of the financial year. The company highlighted a healthy overall operating margin of 4.5%, alongside a continued expansion of its order book levels, indicating a robust pipeline of future projects.
A trading statement for the six months ending on 31st December 2023 projected an increase in HEPS of between 5% and 15%. This forecast reflects the translation of high order book levels secured in Africa into increased activity across all divisions during the period. Despite the heightened level of work executed, the African order book has been maintained, underscoring WBHO's operational efficiency and strategic focus on growth.
Technically, WBHO's share price experienced a downtrend influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and challenges encountered in its Australian operations. However, the company's strategic decision to exit Australia has allowed it to refocus on its core and more profitable markets. This shift is evidenced by the share price breaking through its long-term downward trendline, signaling the commencement of a new upward trend.
WBHO's resilience, strategic diversification, and strong financial performance underscore its status as a formidable entity in the construction industry. The company's ability to navigate through challenging times, coupled with its sustained order book and geographic diversification, positions it well for continued growth and success in both local and international markets. Investors and industry watchers may view WBHO's upward trajectory and strategic maneuvers as indicators of its potential for sustained profitability and expansion in the construction sector.
WBO trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of WBOWBHO (WBO) is now South Africa's largest construction company - after the relative demise of Aveng and Murray & Roberts. It has a market capitalisation of over R5bn. It diversified early into Africa to the North, Australia, and the UK. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue up 38% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 31%. The company said, "The Continuing Operations delivered strong growth this year following a compelling performance from the African operations and good growth from the United Kingdom over the second six months of the financial year. The overall operating margin remains healthy at 4.5%. At the same time, the Group continued to grow its order book levels". Technically the share was in a downtrend following the impact of COVID-19 and its difficulties in Australia, which it is now leaving. The share has broken up through its long-term downward trendline and looks like it has entered a new upward trend.
$JSEWBO - WBHO: When Fundamentals And Technicals CollideConstruction and materials group Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO) reported its first annual loss in its 52 years in its 2022 results.
Low levels of construction activity in the UK and slow government infrastructure rollout in SA paint a grim picture for construction companies.
Many still view WBHO as the best run and well placed company compared to its peers.
A look at the chart of WBHO paints a very gloomy picture. From the 2008 peak, the share has generally moved sideways.
The all time high came in November 2013 at R184,90 and this level was challenged again in February 2018 though the bulls fell just short at R181,01.
This scenario gives us a potential double top but the break below the would-be neckline at R89.47 has seen price fluctuate above and below this level making it relatively insignificant.
With the double top not holding much weight, the key level to watch is R63,50 and if this level holds and price breaks above the resistance trendline, perhaps the share can rally again.
WBO Wilson Bailey Ovcon Holmes- A review of the monthly chart sees a large top formation having been developed over a 13-year period. This top has seen the share trade in a range of roughly R60-R70 over the period however investors should take caution as a downside break (below 8800c) would see the long term trend changing from one of consolidation to that of a downward trend.
Fundamentally, WBO has been a sector leader and has known to be a preferred option in space when investors have allocated capital however I remain cognizant of the potential technical risk.
Top5 oversold/overbought according to RSI & WBHOOversold:
City Lodge Hotels 16
Long4Life 24
PSG Konsult 25
Delta Property 28
Accelerate Property 29
Overbought:
Pioneer Foods 77
Wilson Bayly Holmes Ovcon (WBHO) 73
Impala Platinum 71
Murray & Roberts 70
Pepkor Holdings 70
Spending some time on WBHO. With AECI, this must be one of my favorite SA Inc/Value stocks on the JSE. A company trading below a 10 FPE and a forward dividend yield of close to 6% (according to Thomson Reuters). After the recent results, WBHO made a strong and quick recovery and now placed the share price in OVERBOUGHT territory according to its 14 day RSI. When you however look at the share price on a weekly basis, you will note that the share price clearly still got some legs.
You will note that the price got very close to it’s 10 year support line and after recent results, sliced through the 50 week moving average like a hot knife through butter. Next resistance could be found at R132. A break and close through those levels should only seek resistance at the 200 week moving average, R137.17.
Should the recent positive movement be a “bear trap”, support should be monitored at R95/share. If I was a short-term trader, this would act as my stop-loss as well.
Fundamentally the company is healthy – we will cover this company via our in-dept report this coming week. Thomson Reuters currently got a consensus target price of R148.67 on the company.
Long Top5 oversold/overbought according to RSI & $JSEWBOEnd of week 22Feb19. Another week dominated by mostly Resources & also JSE:CPI . JSE:AMS also ended off the week at a 52-week HIGH. FTSE/JSE Allshare ( JSE:J203 ) Top5 oversold/overbought according to 14day RSI indicator as follow:
JSE:WBO 17
JSE:TON 19
JSE:REB 23
JSE:DLT 23
JSE:HYP 23
JSE:IMP 82
JSE:AGL 81
JSE:AMS 81
JSE:CPI 77
JSE:KIO 76
Spending a few minutes on one of the most oversold companies of the week (according to RSI ), namely Wilson Bayly Hlm-Ovc.
According to recent half-year trading statement, HEPS are expected to fall between 80%-100% compared to last year. The main reason:
"Recognition of a material provision in respect of the anticipated loss to complete the OSAR Western Roads infrastructure project in Australia. The completion of contract anticipated loss is due to the interpretation of the technical specifications within the contract bid design resulting in the underestimation of the physical construction works required under the design and construct contract. The Group is investigating all possible recoveries." - Sources JSE SENS
I still believe that this is a quality company. I will however wait until this coming Tuesday (26 February 2019), when results are expected to be released, before I buy any more. I expect a lot of "buy on rumors...sell on facts" until then, so be very careful buying or shorting WBHO until Tuesday.
Technically, if the actual news turns out to be worse than expected and the “mistake” could have a long-term (and not a once-off as expected) effect on the company, then the long-term resistance line at around R95, could very much be tested. The price recently found its feet around the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement. Should be see a recovery in the share price, R125.80 could be next resistance levels, with the 50-day moving average at R135.28 being a nice little target level over the short-term.
$JSEWBO & the BIG Aussie underestimation This just shows again that a small mistake, can have a big (negative) effect on a company's results and share price. According to yesterday's half-year trading statement, HEPS are expected to fall between 80%-100% compared to last year. The main reason:
"Recognition of a material provision in respect of the anticipated loss to complete the OSAR Western Roads infrastructure project in Australia. The completion of contract anticipated loss is due to the interpretation of the technical specifications within the contract bid design resulting in the underestimation of the physical construction works required under the design and construct contract. The Group is investigating all possible recoveries." - Sources JSE SENS
I still believe that this is a quality company. I will however wait until 26 February 2019, when results are expected to be released, before I buy any more. I expect a lot of "buy on rumors...sell on facts" until then, so be very careful buying or shorting WBHO until then.
On a technical basis, the long-term weekly chart does not look too positive for now, with main resistance only coming at around R95. Over the short-term I remain neutral on the company, still remaining positive over the long-term.