Our opinion on the current state of YORK(YRK)York Timber Holdings (YRK) is a forestry company that owns plantations and processing plants, as well as a wholesaling distribution network. It is the biggest player in the South African plywood and timber market. The company was founded by a Russian immigrant, Herman Katzenellenbogen, in 1916 and was listed on the JSE in 1946.
The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) is the majority union at the company. York has been impacted by the general decline in the construction industry since the sub-prime crisis in 2008. In July 2007, York's shares reached a peak at R40. Since then, the share has mostly been falling or drifting sideways.
On 13th May 2022, the company announced that a strike at its Escarpment operations would negatively impact production. Escarpment contributes 51% of the company's revenue. On 5th December 2022, the company announced its intention to conduct a rights issue to raise R250m. Existing shareholders would receive 43.12791 new shares for every 100 shares already held at a price of 175c each. The announcement caused the share price to drop sharply.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue up 5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 30.11c compared with a loss of 75.89c in the previous period. The main contributor to profit was a R254.6m revaluation of the company's "biological assets"—which likely refers to their forests.
In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 14.22c and 14.45c compared with 4.67c in the previous period. The company has about R186,000 worth of shares changing hands each day, making it practical for investment by private investors.
It remains a volatile, construction-linked counter. We recommended waiting for a clear break up through its downward trendline before investigating further. That break happened on 19th April 2024 at 165c per share. It has since moved up to 248c and then slumped back to 210c. We do not see this as an exciting investment.
YRK trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of YORK(YRK)York Timber Holdings (YRK) is a South African forestry company that owns plantations, processing plants, and a wholesaling distribution network. It is the largest player in South Africa’s plywood and timber market. Founded in 1916 by Russian immigrant Herman Katzenellenbogen, the company was listed on the JSE in 1946. The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) is the majority union representing workers at York.
York Timber has faced challenges over the years, particularly due to the prolonged downturn in the construction industry since the 2008 sub-prime crisis. In July 2007, the company’s shares peaked at R40, but since then, they have mostly been in decline or moved sideways.
In May 2022, York Timber announced that a strike at its Escarpment operations, which account for 51% of its revenue, would negatively impact production. On 5th December 2022, the company revealed plans for a R250 million rights issue, offering existing shareholders 43.12791 new shares for every 100 shares held at a price of 175c each. The rights issue announcement caused a sharp drop in the share price.
In its financial results for the year ending 30th June 2024, York reported a 5% increase in revenue and a significant turnaround in headline earnings per share (HEPS), which rose to 30.11c compared to a loss of 75.89c in the previous period. The main contributor to this profit was a R254.6 million revaluation of the company’s "biological assets," likely referring to the value of its forests.
With an average daily trading volume of approximately R94,000 worth of shares, York Timber is a practical option for small private investors. Technically, the share had been on a downward trend since early 2022. We recommended waiting for a clear break through its downward trendline, which occurred on 19th April 2024 at 165c per share. Since then, the share has risen to 241c, reflecting strong recent performance.
However, the company remains a volatile, construction-linked stock, and investors should carefully monitor its exposure to the broader economic environment and the construction sector’s performance.
Our opinion on the current state of YRKYork Timber Holdings (YRK) is a forestry company deeply entrenched in South Africa's plywood and timber market, with operations spanning plantations, processing plants, and a wholesaling distribution network. Established in 1916 by Russian immigrant Herman Katzenellenbogen, the company went public on the JSE in 1946, solidifying its position in the industry over the decades.
Despite its longstanding presence, York Timber has faced challenges, particularly in navigating the downturns in the construction industry stemming from the global financial crisis in 2008. This has been reflected in its share price performance, which has mostly trended downward or remained stagnant since reaching a peak in July 2007 at R40 per share.
Recent events have further compounded York Timber's struggles. A strike at its Escarpment operations, which contribute significantly to the company's revenue, was announced on May 13, 2022, impacting production. Additionally, the company's announcement on December 5, 2022, regarding a rights issue to raise R250 million led to a sharp drop in its share price.
In its financial results for the six months ending December 31, 2023, York Timber reported a 2% decline in turnover and a significant decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS) to 4.67c compared to 13.27c in the previous period. Factors such as high raw material prices and unreliable log supply from the South African Forestry Company (SAFCOL) were cited as contributors to the unfavorable results.
Trading activity for York Timber shares averages around R89,000 per day, making it feasible for small investments by private investors. However, the stock remains volatile, particularly due to its ties to the construction industry.
From a technical standpoint, the share price has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of 2022. Given its volatility and market conditions, investors may want to wait for a clear breakout above its downward trendline before considering further investment.
In conclusion, York Timber Holdings faces challenges amidst a challenging economic environment and industry-specific issues. Investors should carefully monitor the company's performance and market conditions before making investment decisions.
Our opinion on the current state of YRKYork Timber Holdings (YRK) is a prominent forestry company in South Africa, boasting ownership of plantations, processing plants, and a wholesaling distribution network. Established by Russian immigrant Herman Katzenellenbogen in 1916, the company has been listed on the JSE since 1946 and holds a significant position in the country's plywood and timber market.
Over the years, York Timber Holdings has faced challenges stemming from the construction industry's downturn, particularly since the onset of the sub-prime crisis in 2008. Despite reaching a peak in July 2007 with shares valued at R40, the company has experienced a downward or sideways trend in its share price since then.
Recent announcements have further impacted investor sentiment. A strike at the company's Escarpment operations, responsible for 51% of its revenue, was reported on May 13, 2022, contributing to production disruptions. Additionally, a decision to conduct a rights issue to raise R250 million, announced on December 5, 2022, led to a sharp decline in the share price.
In its financial results for the year ending June 30, 2023, York Timber Holdings reported a 9% decrease in revenue and a headline loss per share of 76c, compared to a restated profit of 53c in the previous period. The company attributed the loss to various factors, including costs related to load shedding, diesel, external log purchases, and reduced sales, resulting in a decline in net asset value (NAV) from 857c to 579c per share.
Despite these challenges, York Timber Holdings remains accessible to private investors, with approximately R183,000 worth of shares traded daily. However, the company's technical outlook indicates a downward trend since the beginning of 2022, underscoring its volatility and its sensitivity to construction-related factors.
In a trading statement for the six months ending December 31, 2023, the company projected a further decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS) by 62% to 67%, citing expectations of significantly lower cash generated from operations compared to the previous comparative period. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating York Timber Holdings as an investment opportunity.
Our opinion on the current state of YRKYork Timber Holdings (YRK) is a forestry company which owns plantations and processing plants, as well as a wholesaling distribution network. It is the biggest player in the South African plywood and timber market. The company was founded by a Russian immigrant, Herman Katzenellenbogen in 1916. The company was listed on the JSE in 1946. The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) is the majority union at the company. York has obviously also been impacted by the general malaise in the construction industry since the commencement of the sub-prime crisis in 2008. In July 2007, York's shares reached a peak at R40. Since then the share has mostly been falling or drifting sideways. On the 13th of May 2022, the company announced that a strike at its Escarpment operations would negatively impact on its production. Escarpment contributes 51% of the company's revenue. On 5th December 2022 the company announced its intention to conduct a rights issue to raise R250m. Existing shareholders would receive 43,12791 new shares for every 100 shares already held at a price of 175c each. The announcement obviously caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue down 9% and a headline loss per share of 76c compared with a profit (restated) of 53c in the previous period. The company's net asset value (NAV) fell from 857c to 579c per share. The company said that the loss resulted from costs of loadshedding, diesel, external log purchases and lower sales. The company has about R183 000 worth of shares changing hands each day which makes it practical for private investors. Technically, the share has been moving down since the beginning of 2022. It remains a volatile construction-linked counter.
Our opinion on the current state of YRKYork Timber Holdings (YRK) is a forestry company which owns plantations and processing plants, as well as a wholesaling distribution network. It is the biggest player in the South African plywood and timber market. The company was founded by a Russian immigrant, Herman Katzenellenbogen in 1916. The company was listed on the JSE in 1946. The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) is the majority union at the company. York has obviously also been impacted by the general malaise in the construction industry since the commencement of the sub-prime crisis in 2008. In July 2007, York's shares reached a peak at R40. Since then the share has mostly been falling or drifting sideways until October 2020 when a new upward trend appears to have begun. On 27th July 2021 A2 Investments acquired additional shares in the company to increase its stake to 18%. This had the effect of pushing the share price up to 243c. On the 13th of May 2022, the company announced that a strike at its Escarpment operations would negatively impact on its production. Escarpment contributes 51% of the company's revenue. On 5th December 2022 the company announced its intention to conduct a rights issue to raise R250m. Existing shareholders would receive 43,12791 new shares for every 100 shares already held at a price of 175c each. The announcement obviously caused the share price to drop sharply. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2022 the company reported revenue down 7% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 11,9c per share compared with 17,11c in the previous period. The company said, "Despite only being fully operational from August 2022, after the June/July 2022 strikes, production volumes increased over the comparative period. External log prices increased on average by more than 11%, despite lumber prices declining by 3% over the comparative period". In a trading statement for the year to 30th June 2023 the company estimated that financial results would vary by at least 20% from the previous year. The company said, "Profitability for the Current Period has been impacted by price increases in external logs purchased and operational costs which could not be recovered in selling prices". The company has about R180 000 worth of shares changing hands each day which makes it practical for private investors. Technically, the share has been moving down since the beginning of 2022. It remains a volatile construction-linked counter.
$JSEYRK - York Timber: A Bullish Sequence Unfolding?York Timber is still a long way away from its lofty heights of years gone by.
What is most encouraging though is that the Covid-19 exacerbated sell-off in March 2020 did not lead to a new low relative to the February 2019 low of 70 zac.
The rally from 75 zac to 420 zac unfolded in five waves labelled (i) to (v) which is a bullish sign that more upside can be expected.
The current correction to 211 zac has a lot of overlapping waves as expected with corrections and this gives more confirmation that the bull run should resume.
It is impossible to forecast that the correction is complete at 211 zac.
Trade recommendation if price breaks above 350 zac without breaking below 211 zac from current levels.
buy @ 350 zac
stop-loss @ 210 zac
take-profit 1 @ 420 zac