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BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Aug 2025)BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Aug 2025)BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Aug 2025)

BTCUSD Single Collateral Futures Contract (Aug 2025)

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BTCUSDQ2025 trade ideas

BTC - Intraday Short.Just opened a short position on BTC, that was entered as the futures markets opened with a sudden influx of liquidity, moving into a 4H Bearish FVG, that should hold and price then turn to continue weekends bearish bias, and by extension, the overall bearish bias in play currently. Target is the hourly TF's SwL, which would be a good reversal area for price to print a positive week in crypto, however, if price doesn't show any signs of a reversal and a change in bias, we should anticipate the unmitigated Weekly BaG as our HTF target/draw on liquidity. Trade what we see, not what we think.
CME:MBT1!Short
by TuataraW20
Understanding Volume In TradingVolume is one of the most crucial yet often overlooked aspects of trading. It represents the total number of shares, contracts, or lots traded in a given period and provides insight into the strength of price movements. By analyzing volume effectively, traders can identify trends, confirm breakouts, and detect potential reversals before they happen. Unlike price action alone, volume adds a critical layer of confirmation. A price move supported by high volume is more likely to be sustainable, while a move on low volume may indicate weakness or manipulation. Institutions, hedge funds, and large market players leave footprints through volume, and understanding these patterns can give traders an edge. Volume Types 🎯 Volume Buy/Sell Volume Delta Volume Cumulative Delta Volume Relative Volume Cumulative Relative Volume Open Interest Volume Profile 01. Volume 🔥 In trading, volume refers to the total quantity of assets traded during a specific time frame, whether they are stocks, futures contracts, options, or currencies. It measures the activity level of a security and provides insights into the strength or weakness of price movements. Key aspects: Market sentiment: High volume often indicates strong interest in a security and can signal the strength of a price move. Conversely, low volume may suggest a lack of interest and can indicate that price movements may not be sustainable. Liquidity: High volume generally indicates better liquidity, meaning it is easier to enter and exit positions without significantly impacting the asset’s price. Low volume may lead to higher slippage and greater price volatility. Volume spikes: Extremely high volume after a prolonged trend may signal the end of that trend (blow-off tops or panic selling bottoms). Market types: Volume can vary by market type. In stock markets, it is usually reported in shares. In futures and options, it is reported in contracts, while in Forex, it is often measured by tick volume (the number of price changes). Impact on market orders & liquidity High Volume = Lower Slippage: Large orders can be executed more efficiently in high-volume environments. Low Volume = Higher Volatility: Thin order books in low-volume markets can lead to erratic price swings and wider bid-ask spreads. 02. Buy/Sell Volume 💹 Buy volume and sell volume are key metrics that indicate the level of buying and selling activity in a market. They help traders assess the strength of price movements and market sentiment. Buy Volume Buy volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded at the ask price (or higher). It occurs when buyers are willing to pay the seller’s asking price, indicating buying pressure and potential bullish sentiment. How buy volume is measured: Transactions that execute at the ask price are counted as buy volume. In some cases, aggressive market orders (where buyers take liquidity) are considered buy volume. Buy volume is often compared to total volume to determine demand strength. Sell Volume Sell volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded at the bid price (or lower). It occurs when sellers accept the buyer’s bid price, indicating selling pressure and potential bearish sentiment. How sell volume is measured: Transactions executed at the bid price are counted as sell volume. Market sell orders (where sellers take liquidity) contribute to sell volume. Higher sell volume relative to buy volume suggests downward price pressure. 03. Delta Volume ✨ Delta Volume (often referred to as Volume Delta) is a key order flow metric that measures the difference between buy volume and sell volume over a given period. Calculation Delta Volume is defined as: Delta Volume = Buy Volume − Sell Volume Where: Buy Volume is the total volume transacted at the ask price (aggressive buying). Sell Volume is the total volume transacted at the bid price (aggressive selling). Interpretation Positive Delta (Buy Volume > Sell Volume): Indicates more aggressive buying, suggesting bullish momentum. Negative Delta (Sell Volume > Buy Volume): Indicates more aggressive selling, suggesting bearish momentum. Near Zero Delta: Indicates a balance between buyers and sellers, often seen in range-bound markets. 04. Cumulative Delta Volume ⚡ Cumulative Delta Volume (CVD) is an advanced order flow metric that tracks the cumulative sum of Delta Volume over time. Calculation CVD t ​ =CVD t − 1 ​ + (Buy Volume − Sell Volume) Where: Buy Volume = Volume transacted at the ask price (aggressive buying). Sell Volume = Volume transacted at the bid price (aggressive selling). CVD*t = Current cumulative delta value. CVD\*{t-1} = Previous cumulative delta value. Interpretation Rising CVD (Positive Delta Accumulation): Buyers are dominating, indicating bullish momentum. Falling CVD (Negative Delta Accumulation): Sellers are in control, signaling bearish momentum. Flat or Divergent CVD: A divergence between price and CVD can indicate potential reversals or absorption by large traders. 05. Relative Volume 📉 Relative Volume (RVOL) is a key trading metric that measures current trading volume compared to its historical average over a specified period. It helps traders assess whether a security is experiencing unusual trading activity and provides insights into liquidity, volatility, and potential price movements. Calculation Relative Volume is typically expressed as a ratio: RVOL = Current Volume / Average Volume Over A Given Period Where: Current Volume = The total shares/contracts traded in the current period (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute, daily). Average Volume = The average volume over a past period (e.g., 10-day average, 50-day average). A higher RVOL (>1) means the security is trading at above-average volume, while a lower RVOL (<1) indicates below-average activity. Interpretation RVOL > 2: Indicates significantly higher-than-normal volume, often linked to news events, earnings reports, or breakout trends. RVOL around 1: Suggests normal trading activity with no unusual volume spikes. RVOL < 1: Indicates low trading activity, which may lead to weak price movements and lower liquidity. 06. Cumulative Relative Volume 💥 Cumulative Relative Volume (CRVOL) is an advanced volume metric that tracks the total volume traded throughout a session relative to its historical average at the same time of day. Calculation Cumulative Relative Volume compares the ongoing total volume at a given point in time to the average cumulative volume at that same time over a historical period. CRVOL = Cumulative Volume at Time X / Average Cumulative Volume at Time X over N periods Where: Cumulative Volume at Time X = The total volume traded from market open up to time X. Average Cumulative Volume at Time X = The average total volume at that point in time over a selected historical period (e.g., 10 days). N periods = The number of historical sessions used for comparison. A CRVOL > 1 indicates higher-than-normal trading activity, while CRVOL < 1 suggests lower-than-average activity. Interpretation CRVOL > 1.5: Significantly higher trading activity than usual, often linked to news events, earnings reports, or institutional participation. CRVOL ≈ 1: Normal trading volume, suggesting typical market conditions. CRVOL < 0.8: Below-average trading volume, often indicating low liquidity and reduced volatility. 07. Open Interest 📊 Open Interest (OI) is a key metric in derivatives markets (futures and options) that represents the total number of outstanding contracts that have not been settled or closed. It is an important indicator of market activity, liquidity, and trader commitment. How it works? Open Interest increases or decreases based on the interaction between buyers and sellers: OI Increases: When a new buyer and a new seller enter the market, creating a fresh contract. OI Decreases: When an existing buyer and seller close their positions (either by offsetting trades or expiration). OI Unchanged: If an existing contract is transferred between traders (one trader closes, another opens an equal position). Interpretation Rising OI + Rising Price: Suggests strong buying interest, indicating a bullish trend with conviction. Rising OI + Falling Price: Indicates strong selling pressure, confirming a bearish trend. Falling OI + Rising Price: Signals a short-covering rally or weakening trend, as traders close positions. Falling OI + Falling Price: Suggests a lack of commitment to further declines, indicating potential trend exhaustion. 08. Volume Profile 🎢 Volume Profile is a powerful market analysis tool that plots trading volume at different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators, which show volume per time interval, Volume Profile reveals where the most buying and selling activity occurred, helping traders identify key support and resistance levels, market structure, and potential price reactions. Components Volume Profile is displayed as a histogram on the vertical axis, showing the amount of volume traded at each price level. It is built using tick data or intraday price action and is often calculated for different timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly, or custom sessions). Key components of Volume Profile include: Point of Control (POC): The price level where the highest volume was traded, acting as a major support/resistance zone. High Volume Nodes (HVN): Price areas with heavy trading activity, indicating consolidation zones where price is likely to stabilize. Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price areas with little trading activity, often leading to fast price movements as there is little resistance or support. Value Area (VA): The price range where 70% of the total volume was traded, representing the "fair value" zone of the market. Value Area High (VAH) & Value Area Low (VAL): The upper and lower boundaries of the Value Area, acting as dynamic support and resistance levels. Types Session Volume Profile: Analyzes volume for a single trading session (daily or intraday). Composite Volume Profile: Covers a longer period (weeks, months, or custom-defined ranges). Fixed Range Volume Profile: Analyzes volume for a specific price range or custom-selected area. Developing Volume Profile: Updates dynamically throughout the trading session to show real-time changes in volume distribution. Interpretation POC as a Magnet: Price tends to revisit the POC due to high liquidity and market agreement at that level. Breakouts from Value Area: If price breaks above VAH with strong volume, it signals a bullish trend; if it breaks below VAL, it signals a bearish trend. Reaction at LVN: Price moves quickly through LVN areas but may reverse or stall when approaching HVN. Rejections at VAH/VAL: If price rejects VAH, it may return to POC or VAL, and vice versa. 09. Indicators 📦 Volume indicators help traders gauge market strength by analyzing the number of shares or contracts traded. Volume (Default) – Displays the total volume traded per candle, often color-coded based on price movement. Volume Profile (Fixed Range, Session, Visible Range) – Shows volume distribution across price levels to identify support and resistance zones. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) – A dynamic support/resistance line that calculates the average price based on volume. On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Measures cumulative volume flow to detect price trends and confirm breakouts. Money Flow Index (MFI) – A volume-weighted RSI-like oscillator that identifies overbought and oversold conditions. Volume Delta – Measures the difference between buying (ask) and selling (bid) volume. Cumulative Delta Volume – Tracks the cumulative sum of volume delta over time to assess buying/selling pressure. Relative Volume (RVOL) – Compares current volume to historical averages to highlight unusual trading activity. Key Takeaways 📋 Volume is a crucial market indicator that reflects trading activity and liquidity, often preceding price movements. High volume confirms trends and breakouts, while low volume can signal weak or false moves. Volume Profile identifies key support and resistance zones, with High Volume Nodes (HVNs) acting as strong barriers and Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) allowing fast price movement. Relative Volume (RVOL) highlights unusual market activity, while Delta Volume and Cumulative Delta reveal buying and selling pressure. VWAP serves as a dynamic support/resistance tool commonly used by institutional traders.
CME:BTC1!Education
by CandelaCharts
9
Is Bitcoin Now Set Up to Rally?Large Speculators are now net-short Bitcoin futures (red circle, bottom right) according to COT positioning data. As previously published, Bitcoin has never rallied when LG Specs were net-long, but that does not mean BTC is going to instantly start going up with the turn to net-short. From an overall positioning standpoint, Bitcoin is neutral since non of the trader types are at a max position, so reward/risk from a CMR process type trade is not there, but it is interesting to see how Bitcoin now reacts to news (whether bullish or bearish) and see of market tone changes with positioning data changing. I think one week is not enough to confirm so this Friday will be telling to see if LG Specs continue to short BTC or flip back to net-long.
CME:BTC1!
by Crowded_Market_Report
8
CME BTC Futures Weekly Plan analysis In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 10, 2025, weekly trade plan for CME BTC futures . We highlighted three potential scenarios last week. Our main scenario 1 played out. It did not reach the high we expected in our plan, however, BTC futures consolidated further around the mCVPOC, i.e., our Anchored Volume Profile from November 10th, 2024. We highlighted the following key levels: Yearly Hi:110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid-range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid-range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1 stated Further chop and acceptance. We noted the following: “In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital”. Also, as acceptance (balance) builds, mCVPOC has also shifted. You can see that mcVPOC is currently sitting at 97,965 (when posting this recap). Market was choppy as expected, although it did not reach December 2024 or January 2025 mid-range. Markets chopped below mCVPOC, touching mCVAL. This is a time where patience is required and it is better to sit on your hands rather than engaging with markets in choppy conditions. Although we are wary of news and that it may impact prices. Our main portion of analysis and plan is founded upon Volume Profile, multiple time-frame analysis as mentioned in our recap from February 6, 2025. This is just one of many ways to look at the markets. We provide these recaps on our thoughts on markets to help you understand and incorporate these into your own style of viewing and analyzing the markets.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Probabilistic thinking. Using Technical logic to get odds.Markets are simple if you think about it. moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally. "horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky. steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals) rule: break outs always must coincide with 200dma rallies. Bonus. High market, strong trend -- best odds for reversal . 50-50 resistance, with weak support --> trickster market. (trap) strong trend but no flying 200dma --> trap. 50-50 resistance with strong trend, high market, but weak 200dma ---> good odds for reversal. keeping it simple. P.S. this method shows why odds favor BTC reversal . Or why 110/120k had to be peak point. for now.
CME:BTC1!Education
by citsvar
MBT1 BULISH (THE LEAP BITCOIN)MBT1, the Bitcoin leaps asset, is showing a slight bullish movement. The targets, danger zone, and stop loss levels are marked on the chart. The zigzag movement indicates that if MBT1 breaks through this area, it could reach upper targets up to 100K. Please pay close attention to the danger zone and stop loss. Note: My ideas are not intended for any type of scalping or scalpers! You can find the full list of my ideas here: www.tradingview.com Here are some of my ideas:
CME:MBT1!Long
by TheMandalor
1
TL;DR: Big money is betting hard on BTC going upAlright, so basically, this chart is showing BTC futures price action along with COT (Commitments of Traders) data, which tells us how big players like fund managers are positioned. What’s Going On? BTC Price Action (Candlesticks at the top) BTC has been in a strong uptrend, making higher highs. There are two key points where fund managers were loading up on longs (expecting price to go up). Right after both points, BTC ripped higher. COT Data (The lines below the chart) This tracks how different types of traders are positioned in the futures market. Fund managers (big institutional players) were super long at both points marked. These guys don’t mess around with short-term trades. They position big when they expect a massive move up. Why This Is Bullish AF Institutions don’t throw money around for no reason. When they load up on longs, it means they’re confident BTC is gonna pump. They have access to better research, inside info, and way more capital than retail traders. Both times they went heavy long, BTC skyrocketed shortly after TL;DR: Big money is betting hard on BTC going up, just like they did before previous pumps. If history repeats, this could mean another huge leg up is coming.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Nomad_Capital
#TheFuturesLeapBitcoin has been on the forefront of traders minds over the past few months with the strong move to the upside over the $100,000 mark analysts have been looking for for some time. Since the January Highs, prices have come down and been bouncing back and forth, and now traders are asking “what’s next?” TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts giving traders access to some of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . As for prizes, there’s something for everyone 250 awards, including cash and plan extensions. 1st place — $3,000 2nd place — $1,500 3rd place — $1,200 4th place — $1,000 5th place — $800 Places from 6th to 25th — $500 Places from 26th to 50th — $300 Places from 51st to 250th — 6 more months of your current plan Symbols for trading: Ten futures are available, representing the most popular CME Group contracts: E-Mini Nasdaq-100, Micro E-Mini S&P, Micro Bitcoin, gold, and more. CL1! MES1! NQ1! MBT1! MCL1! M6E1! MGC1! GC1! ES1! MNQ1! If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:BTC1!
by CME_Group
The key is whether it can be supported near 98105 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (MBT1! 1D chart) There are many indicators formed over the 96600-102095 section. Therefore, the key is whether it can break through this section upward. In particular, we need to look at whether it can be supported and rise in the 98105-100700 section. - In order to turn into an uptrend, the price must rise above the Trend Cloud indicator and maintain it. The Trend Cloud indicator is a combination of the existing 5EMA+StErr indicator and the MS-Signal indicator to increase intuitiveness. Since it is currently below the Trend Cloud indicator, if it fails to rise above 98105, there is a possibility that the downtrend will continue, so caution is required. If the downtrend continues, the key is whether there is support near 91435, which was the previous low point. Therefore, in order to trade with a long position, it is recommended to check that the price is maintained above the Trend Cloud indicator and proceed. - (30m chart) - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
CME:MBT1!
by readCrypto
1
Bitcoin Continues to Trade in a RangeA few weeks back we published the Bitcoin chart and highlighted how in the history of Bitcoin Futures, whenever Large Speculators were net-long, Bitcoin did not rally. Well, here we are and still it trades in a range as Large Speculators are net-long. The amount in positioning has fluctuated but as of Last week, they remain bullish. Historically, Large Speculators are hedge funds who trade the markets with enough size that they have to report to the CFTC. It will be interesting to see what Bitcoin does from here, especially if there is a significant move in net positioning either way. Whether Large Specs increase their position or become net-short, tracking this data weekly may provide more insight on the price of Bitcoin, especially in this new political environment, and administration that is bullish Crypto so far.
CME:BTC1!
by Crowded_Market_Report
1
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
Reg Optimism, Implicit Fed Support, & Insti Demand to Boost BTCBitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff. Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited near-term momentum. MACRO FACTORS AT PLAY BTC remains below key resistance levels, limiting upward momentum. However, it has outperformed equities in the current macroeconomic environment. While equities faced an AI-driven selloff last week, BTC showed resilience, rebounding quickly from its Jan 24 lows. Additionally, BTC has benefited from market uncertainty, like gold, which is also trading near an all-time high. The recent FOMC meeting initially pressured BTC, as the Fed held rates steady and expressed inflation concerns. However, BTC rebounded 2.4% after Fed Chair Powell clarified that changes in inflation-related language were not intended as a strong signal. Source: CME FedWatch The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot suggests only two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, align with this outlook. While a higher-rate environment limits tailwinds for BTC, bullish sentiment continues, driven by regulatory anticipation and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption. BREAKING DOWN TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDER On Jan 23, President Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." The order emphasizes fostering digital asset growth while maintaining U.S. financial sovereignty, particularly through USD-backed stablecoins. It also protects citizens’ rights to use blockchain networks without government interference. Key provisions include: 1. Creation of a National Economic Council working group on digital assets, chaired by David Sacks. 2. Review of existing regulations within 30–60 days, followed by a report to the President in 180 days. 3. Consideration of a national digital asset reserve while explicitly prohibiting government action on (Central Bank Digital Currency) CBDCs. U.S. BITCOIN RESERVE: REALITY CHECK While the executive order affirms the administration’s pro-crypto stance, it stops short of immediately establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the reserve would take shape in at least six months, delaying any near-term impact. The working group may begin by utilizing seized cryptocurrency rather than purchasing new BTC. The U.S. government currently holds 198,000 BTC (~USD 20B, as of Feb 1) and USD 400M in other crypto assets. For context, U.S. strategic reserves include: (a) Gold: 8,133 tonnes (~USD 737B as of 31/Jan), (b) Crude oil: 395M barrels (~USD 28B, as of 24/Jan), and (c) Foreign currency reserves: ~USD 239B (Q3 2024). The U.S. gold reserve accounts for 3.8% of the total above-ground gold stock, while its Bitcoin holdings currently represent just 1% of the total supply. To match the gold reserve proportion, U.S. Bitcoin holdings would need to increase by 554,000 BTC, valued at approximately USD 55 billion at current prices. Over time, a Bitcoin reserve could realistically expand by USD 50 billion to USD 70 billion. Meanwhile, several U.S. states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve proposals. 15 states are considering BTC-related fiscal policies, with: • Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania proposing 10% public fund allocations • Texas suggesting a donation/tax model • Arizona and Utah advancing legislation beyond committee stages REGULATORY CERTAINTY FOR BANKS Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed that banks can engage with crypto provided they manage associated risks. While this imposes stricter compliance requirements, it provides much-needed clarity following the post-FTX banking shakeout that shuttered major crypto-focussed banks. Fund Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong BTC ETFs saw record one-day inflows of over USD 1B on Trump’s inauguration eve. Since then, daily inflows have averaged USD 257M, with only one outflow day (-USD 457M on Jan 27). Cumulative BTC ETF inflows since Jan 20 now total USD 2.3B, pushing assets under management (AUM) to nearly USD 118B. Source: Arkham Intelligence Notably, ETF investors remain highly profitable at current prices. Arkham Intelligence data shows IBIT ETF holders sitting on a 45% gain, which may limit immediate selling but could lead to some profit-taking. MicroStrategy remains a major BTC buyer. The company recently completed a USD 584M perpetual convertible offering to acquire more BTC, potentially fuelling short-term upside. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADE SETUP BTC’s recent pullbacks have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6% Fibonacci levels, like the 2018 bull cycle according to Glassnode . Source: Glassnode The drawdown since reaching ATH on 20/Jan represents a ~13% move which suggests the drawdown is larger than usual ones during this cycle. Historically, this phase of the bull run experiences FOMO-driven price acceleration, though long-term holders’ profit-taking presents a headwind. BTC fell below the 50-day MA over the weekend, this level has served as support recently. The 92k level is also significant as it has provided support several times during recent retracements. However, in case the selloff deepens, the next significant support may be as far as the 100-day MA at 85k. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC has outperformed equities amid macro uncertainty and is increasingly correlated with gold (30-day correlation: 0.67). Recent tariff announcement in the US has driven a sharp selloff. Despite a less-than-ideal FOMC outcome, BTC retains several bullish drivers, supported by Regulatory optimism following Trump’s executive order, Fed Chair Powell’s statements on crypto banking, and Institutional & sovereign demand. The recent selloff offers a tactical opportunity to build long positions during volatile drawdowns. Investors can opt for the following hypothetical trade setup consisting of long position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring on 28/Feb (MBTG2025). Each contract of MBT provides exposure to 0.1 BTC and requires margin of USD 2,451 as of 31/Jan. • Entry: 94,000 • Target: 100,585 • Stop Loss: 90,000 • Profit at Target: USD 659 ((100,585-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract) • Loss at Stop: USD 400 ((90,000-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract) • Reward-to-risk Ratio: 1.65x CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition starting today. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Long
by mintdotfinance
4