BTCUSDJ2025 trade ideas
Bitcoin Price UpdateThere is a significant Bitcoin futures gap at the price level of $103,670 to $102,470. This gap could lead to potential price movements. Additionally, there is a concentration of long positions that could be liquidated at $102,344 to $101,939 if the price declines, further adding to market volatility.
Bitcoin Futures Confirming 3 Drives of Bearish Divergence
In the recent analysis of futures on the daily timeframe, a technical pattern known as the "3 Drives of Divergence" has been confirmed, signaling a potential trend reversal. This pattern, often associated with strong bearish momentum, has been observed with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), further supporting the bearish outlook.
RSI Divergence: The RSI, a momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs. This is a classic sign of weakening upward momentum, often preceding a price decline.
Key Levels:
Reversal Pivot: If the price closes below 97K on a daily timeframe. This pivot is critical as it is the last resistance before a potential downtrend.
Target Futures Gap Fill: Historical price action suggests a gap in the futures market that might get filled. This target zone, marked on the chart, could act as a price magnet for Bitcoin if bearish pressures continue.
Mean Reversion CME GAP at FOMC -> Pump until BOJ Rate DecissionHello guys! I will share a mean reversion idea on Bitcoin with you today.
I expect Bitcoin to close the CME Gap, that got made at the beginning of the week. Currently we are very close to starting the recovery process. The CME Gap closing aligns very good with a mean reversion to the 50EMA on the 4hr timeframe. This could be an indication for a trend continuation of Bitcoin to the upside until friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will decide their rate policy. We will look into the chart from a new perspective on friday so take this trade idea as a short term one. I mentioned in the chart that we have an unrecovered pink vector candle at the top. This could be an good area to aim for in the reversal process to take profit. With good execution this could be an good trade from 102k to 108k. Me personal, I don't think we will see a rate cut and if so only a small one. So nothing that will shake the markets to hard. I hope.
Trade SAFE!
Not looking for drama!As the S&P 500 gets ready for the Fed announcement on Wednesday regarding a potential decrease in the Fed funds rate a dramatic move on Tuesday would not be expected without new information to stimulate the market. I am looking for a sideways the only slightly higher movement on Tuesday.
Bitcoin’s bullish break generates fresh long setup Bitcoin futures have opened the new week on the front foot, talking out the former record highs at $105325 before extending the move as Asian markets come online.
RSI (14) has broken its downtrend while MACD looks like it may crossover from below, suggesting bullish momentum may be building again.
While the price signal is definitive, we’ve not seen pickup in volumes accompanying the bullish break, making the preference to wait for a retest of $105325 before initiating long positions, rather than simply buying around these levels.
If there was pullback and bounce from $105325, it would improve conviction in the setup, allowing for longs to be established above the level with a tight stop beneath for protection.
If the trade were to move in your favour, the preference would be to wait for a topping pattern or signal to determine whether to hold, take profit or reverse the move.
Price Gap Examples - Bitcoin FuturesSharing for educational purposes only.
█ Three Types of Gaps
There are three general types of gaps:
Breakaway Gap
Runaway (or Measuring) Gap
Exhaustion Gap
█ 1 — The Breakaway Gap
The breakaway gap usually occurs:
At the completion of an important price pattern.
At the beginning of a significant market move
Examples:
After a market completes a major basing pattern, the breaking of resistance often involves a breakaway gap.
Breaking major trendlines signaling a reversal of trend may also involve this type of gap
Key Characteristics:
Heavy volume often accompanies breakaway gaps.
They are typically not filled (or only partially filled).
In an uptrend, upside gaps act as support areas on subsequent corrections.
A close below the gap is a sign of weakness.
█ 2 — The Runaway or Measuring Gap
The runaway gap forms:
Midway through a trend (uptrend or downtrend).
Indicates the market is moving effortlessly, usually on moderate volume.
Key Characteristics:
In an uptrend, it signals strength.
In a downtrend, it signals weakness.
Acts as support or resistance during subsequent corrections.
Why "Measuring" Gap?
It often occurs at the halfway point of a trend.
By measuring the distance the trend has already traveled, the probable extent of the remaining move can be estimated by doubling the amount already achieved.
█ 3 — The Exhaustion Gap
The exhaustion gap appears:
Near the end of a market move.
Key Characteristics:
Occurs after objectives have been achieved and other gap types (breakaway and runaway) have been identified.
In an uptrend, prices leap forward in a final push but quickly fade.
Within a couple of days or a week, prices turn lower.
█ Conclusion
By understanding the types of gaps and their characteristics, traders can better interpret market signals and anticipate potential trends or reversals.
█ Source:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York Institute of Finance, 1999. Chapter 4, "Price Gaps," pp. 94-98.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin.
K1 and K2 is a bearish harami pattern,
But unfortunately, K3 close upon K2 immediately.
Perhaps it is a valid break up, after all it is a bull market.
And K4 will keep climbing up to test 115-128K area.
On the other hand,
It is also possible that a large scale consolidation started from K1 earlier,
And K3 is just a fake up candle.
If that is a fact,
K4 will likely fall to test 90-95K area.
It will be a good place to buy then.