2024-04-23 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: Tough spot to trade imo. Different time frames tell different stories here. Daily had a big reversal and closed above the 20ema. 4h says it’s a small pullback from a potential W1 of a bear trend and on the 1h chart we could argue that market formed a nice double bottom and we trade back to the weekly high around 2400 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300-2400
bull case: Bulls bought the lows today and closed above the daily 20ema and the bull trend line from late 2024-02 starting below 2100. If they can generate follow through now and the 1h 20ema acts as resistance, their next targets are 2370ish (low of last week - if bears are strong, this will be resistance) and above is probably 2400 again. Given the wild moves in Gold over the last weeks, I try to stay really humble here and look for strong moves where I can join along.
bear case: Bears had a strong sell off from 2433 to 2304. A pullback was expected but they need to step in again around 2350-2370 or we test 2400 again. I think there is a chance this sell off was a first leg of a bear trend but for that the pull back has to be somewhat shallow and mostly sideways to break out of the bull channel. Until that happens, longs are favored.
short term: Neutral with slightly bullish tendency. Invalid below 2300.
medium-long term: I talked about a equities off and commodities on cycle. Commodities support this thesis for now. Equities have to follow and than I’d like to hear from you when you read it here first in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: 2310 acted as support and was tested 3 times. Once market traded above the 15m 20ema again, one had to get long there.
