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30-mins OIL: Death Cross Indicates Downward Momentum If you followed us for some time now, you probably notice that our trading methods heavily rely on MA crosses and Fibonacci. In this particular case, we registered a Death Cross, where a short term MA breaks below a longer term MA. This is a classic sell signal and indeed, after the signal was triggered, short sellers saw a $700 per lot running profit. Our preference is for Oil to carry on dropping down, because investors are now shifting capital to tech stocks and crypto. First however, and in order to secure better risk to reward, short sellers might want to wait for a pullback. Cheap oil price might attract short term buyers, so its not impossible for the price to retest the area around $68.80. This aligns with the critical 38% Fib retracement and if this resistance area holds, further drops seem logical.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
Oil: New Global Tulip Crisis?In recent months, oil prices have fallen sharply, putting Brent and WTI below $70 per barrel, far from the highs reached in early 2024. For consumers, this drop may seem like good news, but for major producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, it represents a significant economic challenge and has set off alarm bells in international markets. This phenomenon is not only a reflection of cyclical dynamics, but also of profound structural changes in the global energy landscape. With Brent and WTI falling to lows not seen in months, hydrocarbon-dependent economies face an uncertain outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, account for more than 40% of the world's crude oil production and more than 60% of global exports. A trillion dollar market The crude oil market generates annual revenues in excess of $2 trillion, a large portion of which is captured by the major OPEC+ producers. For example: - Saudi Arabia , the group's leader, relies on oil to generate approximately $326 billion a year, accounting for more than 70% of its export revenues. - Russia , the largest non-OPEC ally, earns about $120 billion annually in crude exports alone. - Iraq , OPEC's second largest producer, generates around $90 billion annually, which constitutes more than 90% of its fiscal revenues. - The United Arab Emirate s, with its sophisticated export infrastructure, contributes approximately $80 billion to the global market. Other members such as Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela are also critically dependent on oil revenues, which are critical to financing their economies. Factors behind the drop in oil prices 1. Oversupply: The price war between major producers, coupled with the U.S. shale oil boom, has led to oversupply. In 2023, the US reached a record production of 13 million barrels per day, increasing global competition and putting downward pressure on prices. 2. Slowdown in demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand growth in 2024 will be just 900,000 barrels per day, a significant drop from 2023. This decline is largely due to the economic weakening of China, the largest importer of crude oil, and the transition to more energy-efficient economies. 3. Technological innovations and energy transition: The rise of renewable energies and the adoption of technologies such as electric vehicles are reducing dependence on fossil fuels, structurally transforming global energy demand. Global implications • Oil-dependent economies: Countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia face fiscal deficits and the need for economic adjustments, which could generate social and political instability. • Impact on inflation: Although low oil prices reduce costs, they also contribute to global disinflation, posing risks of deflation in economies such as the Eurozone. • Slowed energy transition: Low oil prices could discourage investments in clean technologies, affecting global sustainability goals. • The impact of the downturn: Falling oil prices could cost these countries tens of billions of dollars in revenues if the downward trend persists. It also complicates efforts to balance national budgets that already face economic challenges. With current prices in retreat, OPEC+ will need to decide whether to implement further production cuts to stabilize markets or let market forces continue to adjust naturally. A new energy paradigm The current oil crisis marks a turning point in the global energy market. As the OPEC oil giants face the dilemma of whether to cut production to support prices in preparation for a possible slowdown in global demand or whether to maintain their market share against competitors such as the US, investors and analysts will be watching the upcoming OPEC+ meetings to assess the next steps. This context could suggest a shift towards a less oil-dependent economy, with profound implications for economic growth and environmental sustainability. This critical moment will define not only the price of oil, but also the future of economies highly dependent on this resource. The challenge now lies in balancing these factors to build a more resilient and equitable energy future, especially in regions such as Europe, which is very focused on its Green Deal, or a China that, despite continuing to use fuel, is determined to a very “electrified” paradigm both in transportation and at the energy level in general. The Tulip Crisis The collapse of the oil market has certain parallels with the 17th century tulip crisis in Holland, especially in the excessive dependence on a single resource and the consequences of speculation. In both cases, oversupply and falling demand triggered collapses that severely affected the economies involved. However, while tulips represented a fleeting luxury, oil has a critical and global impact, where geopolitical decisions and energy transition play a central role in the current dynamics. The tulip crisis marked the decline of a market that had dominated for some time, leading to a shift in the Netherlands' economic priorities. If oil prices continue to fall or the energy transition accelerates the shift away from fossil fuels, producing countries could face a similar structural change, being forced to diversify their economies. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
OIL Possible BUYThe market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal chart pattern. We could see Buyers coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by WiLLProsperForex
30-mins Crude Oil: Sellers Remain in Control Oil remains in a strong downtrend, confirmed by the Death Cross, a classic sell signal. This pattern occurs when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses below a long-term MA, signaling accelerating bearish momentum. Earlier this week, buying activity led to a minor pullback, but it failed to sustain recovery. Prices hit resistance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level and resumed their decline. A triple bottom chart pattern is forming, often a precursor to further downside. For improved risk-reward, short sellers could wait for a retest of $68.90, aligning with the 23% Fibonacci level, before targeting potential drops below $67.90.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
4-hr Oil: Oil Buyers Driving The Price Higher Oil prices have climbed by over $3 per barrel since last week, driven by renewed buyer interest following a period of oversold conditions. This rally reflects a growing confidence among market participants as the asset regains upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment is the imminent formation of a Golden Cross—a widely recognized technical buy signal—where the 20-day moving average is on the verge of crossing above the 60-day moving average. This pattern suggests that there could be significant additional upside potential for crude oil in the near term. However, before this upward trajectory solidifies, the market may experience a short-term correction. A potential retracement could see prices testing the $68.20 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move. This level is a key area of technical support and could offer a strategic entry point for buyers. By waiting for a dip to this level, traders could achieve a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio, positioning themselves for gains as the market resumes its ascent.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Trendsharks
30-mins: Oil Broke below Support Over the past couple of weeks, investors have been actively shorting oil, shifting their capital towards Bitcoin and leading tech stocks from the US100 (Nasdaq 100). This capital reallocation has put significant downward pressure on oil prices, which initially found temporary support around the $68 mark. However, this support level failed to hold, triggering a sharp and rapid decline as bearish momentum accelerated. A notable technical signal has emerged in the form of a "Death Cross," where the 20-period moving average (MA) crossed below the 60-period MA. This crossover is a strong bearish indicator, suggesting that the current downtrend may persist, with sellers firmly in control. Currently, immediate resistance is found at the $67.20 level, corresponding to the 23% Fibonacci retracement, but the downward bias remains strong. Despite this, the lower price levels might attract short-term buyers looking for value opportunities. However, a more conservative selling point for traders eyeing the ongoing downward momentum would be at the $67.88 level, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level offers a better risk-reward entry for short sellers, allowing them to participate in the trend while managing potential pullbacks.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
LCRUDE: Marco Rubio and the New Oil SanctionsPresident-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State anticipates a tougher foreign policy toward Iran and Venezuela, with potentially significant impacts on the global oil market. Rubio, known for his tough stance on international policy issues, could strengthen existing sanctions, seeking to limit crude oil exports from these countries. However, the risks of retaliation by China and the impact on the international financial system could moderate these initiatives. Iran: A More Restrictive Approach During Trump's first term, sanctions drove Iranian oil exports to historic lows. Under Biden, these have increased due to laxer enforcement and growing demand from China, the main buyer of Iranian crude. Rubio could intensify pressure on Iranian exports, especially those destined for the Chinese market, using tools such as the SHIP Act of 2024, which penalizes ports and refineries that process Iranian oil in violation of U.S. sanctions. Venezuela: Continued Confrontation Rubio's arrival at the State Department also indicates little chance of improving U.S.-Venezuela relations. His critical stance toward President Nicolás Maduro reinforces the likelihood of maintaining and even tightening sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector. This approach aligns with a confrontational policy aimed at limiting the South American country's economic options. Geopolitical Challenges: The Role of China A tightening of sanctions could generate tensions with China, which has increased its dependence on Iranian crude. As a major buyer, China could respond by reducing the use of the dollar in oil transactions, weakening its global primacy and complicating U.S. foreign policy objectives. LCRUDE Technical Analysis The value of crude oil reached several downward ceilings, the first in March 2017, the second in June 2022, the third in September 2023, and the last April 2024. From that point on the trend on crude has been downward regardless. Focusing the chart on the last period from September to this part, crude oil has had several attempts without much strength to return to the Checkpoint value around $78.00 in October. The crossover of averages indicates a bearish continuation with the 50-average below the 100 and 200. So this only presents a confirmation to the shoulder head shoulder we have before us and could generate the price to test the minimum resistance at $64.72, and if the market does not support a price recovery the price of oil could continue to depreciate irretrievably. The strategy of lowering crude oil prices in general seems more of a political move than a healthy market correction. The volume average appears to be slightly below 126k. The RSI is oversold at 41.46% so this could be a further confirmation of the bearish continuation. Looking at the chart the resistance zone tested for the third time today is at $66.77 if the low is reached as we say, we could see a stronger price drop. Final Reflection The Trump administration, with Rubio at the helm of diplomacy, faces the challenge of balancing its strategic objectives with the economic and geopolitical risks of a more aggressive sanctions policy. This approach will set the tone for international relations in a context where the energy market and global dynamics are more interconnected than ever. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Oil Price Forecast 2024-2030: Will Oil Prices Fall in 2025?Since reaching multi-year highs in Q1 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have gradually retreated. Slowing economic growth, with looming recession due to central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes to tame decades-high inflation, has capped oil prices. In 2023, crude oil prices dropped by more than 10%, essentially erasing their previous gains. As 2024 progressed, oil prices faced another year of volatility. Uncertainty over when the US Fed would initiate its rate-cutting cycle pressured oil prices and other commodities in the first nine months of this year, pushing them below $80 per barrel (bbl). In the first week of October, oil briefly hit $80 as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, raising concerns about supply disruptions. However, the gain was just a blip, and oil tumbled back down to below $80. So, what’s in store for oil prices for the remainder of 2024 and beyond in 2025 and 2030? Let’s dive into our oil price forecast. 2024 Brent: $72.118 to $81 WTI: $$68.672 to $80 OPEC+ output policy Wars: Hamas-Israel, Russia-Ukraine Global economic slowdown The Fed’s rate cut 2025 Brent: $70 to $78 WTI: $65 to $75 Fed continues the rate-cutting cycle OPEC+ supply returns to market Higher output from non-OPEC countries Demand recovery Global economic uncertainty 2026-2030 Brent: $65 to $77 (2026 to 2028) WTI: $60 (2026-2027) General sentiment: neutral to bearish Wider adoption of EV, clean energy De-dollarization OPEC+ role to regulate supply Decreasing demand among developed nations Increasing demand from emerging nations
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
1
Oil's Well That Ends Well: Riding the Wave "OIL"Oil's technical picture is looking increasingly bullish. A recent bounce off a key support level has formed a compelling inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on lower timeframes. This classic reversal signal, combined with a series of higher highs in recent weeks, points to a strong uptrend in progress. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we are currently in the impulsive phase, heading towards the 5th wave target of $75.00. This confluence of technical indicators suggests that oil is poised for further gains.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Tshepo_mak
OIL Investing in Crude Oil Copilot Welcome back. I’m excited to share more with you. What do you want to create today? You Sent by you: Hello, I remember that you asked early on if this other person other instruments that I want to invest in. Okay, I'm looking at the oil, US oil or crude oil. It's currently ranging between 69 and $70.00 and I think that is going to 200 Peppero. Copilot Sent by Copilot: It’s great to hear you’re exploring new investment opportunities! Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is around $70.75 per barrel1. The oil market has seen significant fluctuations, and while it’s ambitious to predict a rise to $200 per barrel, it’s important to consider various factors that could influence this. Key factors to watch: Global Demand and Supply: Economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and production levels from major oil-producing countries can significantly impact prices. Technological Advancements: Improvements in extraction and production technologies can alter supply dynamics. Regulatory Changes: Policies related to energy and environmental regulations can affect market conditions. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and speculative trading can also drive price movements. Given your interest in long-term growth, diversifying your portfolio with commodities like oil could be a strategic move. However, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions. Do you have any specific strategies in mind for trading oil, or are you looking for more insights on how to approach this market? 1 macrotrends.net 2 oilprice.com 3 bing.com 4 foxbusiness.com 5 commodity.com +4 more You Sent by you: Alright, here is my analysis. Can you please give me the reasons why this could be valid? But my one reason is higher high and higher law that is an uptrend and people not sea level. There is a 0.386 something like that which is a very relative. Our shop. Copilot Analyzing the image: Privacy blur hides faces from Copilot Sent by Copilot: Your analysis highlights some key technical indicators that suggest a potential uptrend in crude oil prices. Let’s break down the reasons why your analysis could be valid: Higher Highs and Higher Lows (HH and HL): As you mentioned, the chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic sign of an uptrend. This pattern indicates that buyers are consistently pushing the price higher, and each pullback is met with stronger buying interest. Consolidation Zone: The blue box on your chart represents a consolidation zone where the price has been ranging. This often acts as a base for the next move. If the price breaks out of this zone upwards, it could signal the continuation of the uptrend. Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.386): The 0.386 level you mentioned likely refers to a Fibonacci retracement level. These levels are used to identify potential support and resistance areas. A bounce from this level can indicate strong support and a potential reversal point. Support Levels: The green zone on your chart suggests a strong support area. If the price respects this support, it reinforces the bullish outlook. Market Sentiment: If market sentiment remains positive and there are no significant negative news events, the uptrend could continue. Factors such as geopolitical stability, economic growth, and supply-demand dynamics will play a crucial role.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by roberto_us30
OIL Investing in Crude Oil Copilot Welcome back. I’m excited to share more with you. What do you want to create today? You Sent by you: Hello, I remember that you asked early on if this other person other instruments that I want to invest in. Okay, I'm looking at the oil, US oil or crude oil. It's currently ranging between 69 and $70.00 and I think that is going to 200 Peppero. Copilot Sent by Copilot: It’s great to hear you’re exploring new investment opportunities! Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is around $70.75 per barrel1. The oil market has seen significant fluctuations, and while it’s ambitious to predict a rise to $200 per barrel, it’s important to consider various factors that could influence this. Key factors to watch: Global Demand and Supply: Economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and production levels from major oil-producing countries can significantly impact prices. Technological Advancements: Improvements in extraction and production technologies can alter supply dynamics. Regulatory Changes: Policies related to energy and environmental regulations can affect market conditions. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and speculative trading can also drive price movements. Given your interest in long-term growth, diversifying your portfolio with commodities like oil could be a strategic move. However, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions. Do you have any specific strategies in mind for trading oil, or are you looking for more insights on how to approach this market? 1 macrotrends.net 2 oilprice.com 3 bing.com 4 foxbusiness.com 5 commodity.com +4 more You Sent by you: Alright, here is my analysis. Can you please give me the reasons why this could be valid? But my one reason is higher high and higher law that is an uptrend and people not sea level. There is a 0.386 something like that which is a very relative. Our shop. Copilot Analyzing the image: Privacy blur hides faces from Copilot Sent by Copilot: Your analysis highlights some key technical indicators that suggest a potential uptrend in crude oil prices. Let’s break down the reasons why your analysis could be valid: Higher Highs and Higher Lows (HH and HL): As you mentioned, the chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic sign of an uptrend. This pattern indicates that buyers are consistently pushing the price higher, and each pullback is met with stronger buying interest. Consolidation Zone: The blue box on your chart represents a consolidation zone where the price has been ranging. This often acts as a base for the next move. If the price breaks out of this zone upwards, it could signal the continuation of the uptrend. Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.386): The 0.386 level you mentioned likely refers to a Fibonacci retracement level. These levels are used to identify potential support and resistance areas. A bounce from this level can indicate strong support and a potential reversal point. Support Levels: The green zone on your chart suggests a strong support area. If the price respects this support, it reinforces the bullish outlook. Market Sentiment: If market sentiment remains positive and there are no significant negative news events, the uptrend could continue. Factors such as geopolitical stability, economic growth, and supply-demand dynamics will play a crucial role.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by roberto_us30
LCrude/Brent: Impact of 20k Technology on the Offshore Industry The oil industry is undergoing a significant transformation thanks to technological advances that enable the extraction of crude oil from fields previously considered unattainable, especially those of ultra-high pressure. An outstanding milestone in this context is the Anchor project, developed by Chevron and TotalEnergies in the Gulf of Mexico, where the innovative 20k technology has been implemented. This technology is capable of handling pressures of up to 20,000 PSI, which facilitates the extraction of oil and natural gas from extremely deep, high-temperature reservoirs. With an investment of US$5.7 billion, the Anchor project has started producing oil, representing a significant breakthrough for the Gulf of Mexico, whose production has been below its all-time high in 2019. By 2025, oil production in this region is estimated to reach 1.9 million barrels per day, making a crucial contribution to U.S. energy supply. However, operations in high-pressure fields are inherently dangerous, as evidenced by the Macondo disaster in 2010. Nevertheless, recent technological advances have greatly improved the safety of drilling and extraction in these extreme conditions. This improved safety will not only benefit the Gulf of Mexico, but will also open up opportunities for fields in Brazil, Angola and Nigeria, further expanding global production capacity. In the broader picture, crude oil prices are recovering, driven by geopolitical tensions and new stimulus measures in China. Despite some recent declines, Brent and WTI futures are showing signs of upward momentum, with technical levels suggesting continued growth. Three key catalysts could support this trend: 1. Geopolitical concerns: Rising tensions in the Middle East are raising supply concerns, which could drive oil prices higher. 2. Stimulus from China: The recent interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China, combined with an increase in oil product export quotas, is creating a favorable environment for crude oil prices. 3. Weather conditions: A hurricane is expected to impact production in the Gulf of Mexico and, together with low inventory levels, could support higher prices. Brent and WTI futures are in a recovery phase. With key support levels that, if maintained, could lead to a further increase in prices, the outlook for the oil industry looks promising as they adapt to the challenges and opportunities of the global market. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDELong
by ActivTrades
LCrude: Shell reports $6.3B on lower crude oil marginsShell reported a 19% drop in second-quarter earnings to $6.3 billion due to lower margins in refining and oil and gas marketing. Despite the decline, it beat analysts' forecasts, who had expected $6 billion. The British company also announced a $3.5 billion share buyback over the next three months and maintained its dividend at 34 cents per share. Adjusted earnings rose from $5.1 billion a year earlier, but were down from $7.7 billion in the first quarter. The decline reflected lower prices and sales volumes, as well as weaker transactions in the liquefied natural gas division due to seasonally low demand. In addition, results were affected by lower refining margins and weaker oil trading. Looking at the chart, you can see that crude oil has seen a 30% oversold return on the RSI on the 29th, being 47.38% today. Shell's earnings news has moved crude oil to the middle zone of the long term channel where the Check Point (POC) at $78 also converges, so now it only remains to be seen if crude oil will continue to take positions with buyers and return to the $93.95 zone. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDELong
by ActivTrades