4/14/25 - $alv - Good biz, but not for me4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: XETR:ALV
Good biz, but not for me
- over 5% fcf
- autonomous won't disrupt this biz and it's established
- still growing
- good chart
- just the wrong tape to start playing small size on prints, and i'm more curious how the co speaks about the guide/ outlook
- this is on my radar, but tbh, i'd require a bigger discount to add the small line to my PnL ($75)
- would be a dip buy on an okay result but stock down
- not a short, prob a buy, but meh.
V
0HJH trade ideas
ALV Long PositionHi traders,
Looking at ALV on the 4-hour timeframe, the stock has been in a downtrend, but bullish divergences are starting to appear, signaling a potential bounce. There´s also a gap on the chart that we´re expecting to be filled on the next upward move. We´re entering a long position now with a target of $105.58.
Good luck!
Autoliv: Financial Report July - September 2023Q3 2023: Another strong quarter
Financial highlights Q3 2023
$2,596 million net sales
13% net sales increase
11% organic sales growth*
8.9% operating margin
9.4% adjusted operating margin*
$1.57 EPS, 30% increase
$1.66 adjusted EPS*, 35% increase
Key business developments in the third quarter of 2023
Sales increased organically* by 11%, which was 7pp better than global LVP growth of 3.8% (S&P Global October 2023). We outperformed in all regions, mainly due to new product launches and higher prices.
Profitability improved substantially, positively impacted by price increases, organic growth, and our cost reduction activities. Operating income was $232 million and operating margin was 8.9%. Adjusted operating income* improved from $173 million to $243 million and adjusted operating margin* increased from 7.5% to 9.4%, despite inflationary pressure and adverse FX effects. Return on capital employed was 24% and adjusted return on capital employed* was 25%.
Operating cash flow remained strong, albeit declining from $232 million to $202 million, mainly due to temporary negative working capital effects. Free cash flow* decreased to $50 million from $68 million. The leverage ratio* was unchanged at 1.3X compared to the second quarter of 2023. A dividend of $0.66 per share was paid, and 1.23 million shares were repurchased and retired in the quarter.
ALV breakout tradehi Traders
Let's have a look at ALV
ALV looks interesting.
We're expecting the price to surge higher.
Take a long position once the price breaks out of the triangle.
Target for longs: 110 $
If the price breaks down, we won't be looking for shorts but longs at the upsloping support (red trendline).
Good luck
Counting a Pattern An idea that I am using counting this inverted head and shoulders pattern.
I have outlined all the points on chart.
Kind of look at the chart with a slight left tilt to your head and you will see the H&S perfectly.
This might be a bit of an outlandish idea so let me know what you think.
Bix
Watchlist 2023-01-27 #CVX #ALV #LUVSPY started yesterday with a fakeout at the key 404 level. Swiped lower until finding support at 400. From there, it was a grind higher all day to close above 404. An inverse H&S in the afternoon signaled that we were going to close near the highs. Today we are gapping lower. Technically we broke all the key resistance levels so the next stop is 412. However, it's Friday and we've had 5 green days in a row. I wouldn't be surprised if we found a close in between yesterday's range. Bias is neutral, but I can easily flip if I see the right price action.
CVX - yesterday CVX announced a historical share buyback program. Today, they missed on earnings with lower global oil consumption. Anchored VWAP shows that the majority of buys yesterday are now under water. Looking for a morning shove lower to flush out those longs. They I expect the rally to continue with new buys if we find support above the PD low.
ALV - Gap fade - Up 3 ATRs in the PM on >30K PM vol, gapping into key resistance at 90.26. Looking for failed-follow through momentum then short.
LUV - Prior day had huge relative vol, with capitulation at 34.82. 35.80 is going to be the key level to watch. To do retest and fade lower? Or consolidate and push high into the previous value area? I will be waiting for price action of either side.
Autoliv not living its life to the fullest. Down we go. ALVWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
ALV New Trade (Leaps)A new trade to be added to our portfolio will be ALV. ALV is the world's largest automotive safety supplier, with sales to all major car manufacturers in the world. Autoliv Electronics has significantly strengthened its portfolio to include critical technologies required to enable autonomous driving.
Cup and HandleNo rising wedges
Possible T2: 149 164
Pattern not valid until long entry level of 87.11
NV is high
Short interest is low/Company based in Sweden
Autoliv , Inc. is a supplier of automotive safety systems with a range of product offerings, including passive safety systems and active safety systems. The Company operates through its Passive Safety segment. The Passive safety products include modules and components for passenger and driver-side airbags, side-impact airbag protection systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, whiplash protection systems and child seats, and components for such systems, as well as passive safety electronic products, such as restraint electronics and crash sensors. The Active safety products include camera-based vision systems, night driving assist, automotive radars, brake controls, positioning systems, electronic control units, and other active safety systems. As of December 31, 2016, including joint venture operations, the Company had approximately 78 production facilities in 25 countries, consisting of both component factories and assembly factories.
Not a recommendation
Autoliv stock has collided with a van (2)This stock was speeding towards the moon but it forgot to check the blind spot. Now we are pulling back and the question is how far will we go?. It looks like it will either be at 80$ or at 65$. I prefer 65$!
Timing = 1 ( lately this stock has pulled back with the market & my current bias is we are finding a bottom to reverse soon)
Volume = 0 ( The volume was weaker on the move up and stronger on this latest sell off making me think that there might be more downside )
Group strength = -1 (The consumer cyclicals have broken some key resistance)
Entry = 1 ( i like this entry below current price bc i am cheap & i have bias for more downside in the current market)
Fractal = 1 (fractals support a reversal )
Bullish breakout from multi-year consolidation (35+% upside)Stock saw strong moves up in 2013 & 2014 off of GFC lows as the global economy rebounded.
Swedish Autoliv made their name in seatbelts but pioneer a wide range of vehicle safety products these days.
2.5 year symmetrical triangle (alt. bull flag) has broken out with some horizontal levels still above.
The flag interpretation Implies a measured move to 1500+ / share. A 35+% gain
The triangle targets 1400+, a 25-30% rise.
Potential stop at red dashed line.