$CLIR to new highsGood Morning Traders,
DFV, I like the stock.
There is a lot of reasons fundamentally for this to pump to new highs, including pending changes to global regulations regarding emissions.
The upside for NASDAQ:CLIR right now is metaphorically, clear blue skies.
At ones own risk to reward for entries as the impulse moves up are already under way.
This idea will be updated and closed after new highs, but will stay on my watchlist.
Have a nice day.
0I0B trade ideas
Clearsign updated chart - revenue potential and catalystsClearsign took a battering last week like a lot of the stock market, it was a correction on low volume after which you would normally hope for a decent bounce back which happened in Friday's trading, +10% for the day and a bit more aftermarket.
Where does Clearsign go from here? Well it is back to the median in the channel above as of now, a few weeks back I thought that it would stay in the upper half of the channel but clearly I was wrong about that, SeekingAlpha wrote a strong article on the future of Clearsign last week so that might have contributed to the rise on Friday.
So let's look at two important parts of Clearsign over the remainder of the year and try to determine if this is worth your money. But first let's set the scene and give a bit of background to the industry that they are operating in.
Essentially Clearsign has developed and patented a way to make flames burn better. Why is this important? For emission standards.
At the moment you have a refinery, flare or boiler and it produces high levels of NOX (atmospheric pollutants), as emission standards tighten up these levels have to come down.
It is EXACTLY like what happened with cars.
First you had diesel and petrol cars and no one cared what came out of the exhaust, then catalytic converters were introduced as emission standards tightened, better and smaller engines were produced and now most manufacturers (esp in Europe) have promised to stop producing anything but emission free cars.
So the same will happen with refineries and boilers and eventually planes will have to tow the line as well.
You can see this happening in China, California and Europe right now. China and California have set aggressively low NOX levels as standard, Europe and the rest of the US are following. This was less certain when Trump was in power but with Biden in and the pressure on big oil there is no doubt it is going to go that way.
At the moment the solution is bascially a catalytic converter, you treat the emissions as they exhaust the burner, this is expensive to fit and expensive to maintain and this is where Clearsign come in. Their solution changes the way the flame burns and produces less NOX from the very beginning with no need to treat the emissions afterward,
It is obvious how much of an advantage this is, it is the equivalent of changing from diesel to electric, so let's talk about potential catalysts coming up for Clearsign
Catalysts:
1) China - very close to certification of their 125hp fire tube boiler, news expected before end of Q2
2) Exxon - news expected Q3 of this year, the testing process for this installation has been arduous, recently this has also included testing with up to 18% hydrogen in the fuel, at every turn Clearsign has passed these tests with flying colours.
3) Mystery Euro supermajor - this means Chevron, BP, Total or Shell, prob no further order till 2022
Let's talk more about the Supermajor
from Q4 transcript
Additionally, on February the second this year, we were pleased to announce another order for ClearSign called process burner for my second super major. We believe this project is another validation project for our technology a part of a roadmap for future implementation to meet the anticipated future emissions requirements. This installation is in Europe and other first for us, but the super major has more refineries in California, U.S. Gulf Coast and many other U.S. locations.
Chevron does have a refinery in UK so might be them
BP doesn't have a refinery in California so not them
Total doesn't have a refinery in California and only one in the US so not them
Shell, this is my top bet, they have refineries all over mainland Europe and the US including California and the Gulf coast.
So what happens when you have installations with Exxonmobil and Shell, well that means orders.... and big ones, maybe not in 2021 but they ARE coming.
Let's talk a little bit about future revenues:
This is very very hard to quantify, each burner is about 100K not including installation and BMS. This still makes it a helluva lot cheaper than then alternative SCR tech, improvements have been made and this is now and one piece system so installation has been made more straightforward and serves the customer even better than before.
Before we even start we should say that 9 sales have been completed thus far, approx revenue of 1m+ will be generated from this not including spare parts and servicing in the future for every installation. Margins will be lower for the first year or two due to development of the product and the burden of proof of concept but once repeat orders start coming margins of 50% are anticipated with lower margins in China expected.
1) China - recently announced partnership with Shuang Liang Boiler Co, awaiting final approval of certification by Chinese government and once that happens orders should start flowing in at a steady rate, firstly for the 125hp firetube with more products to be added. Clearsign are saying this is a 8 billion market, could Clearsign get 10% of that over the next few years? What I would really like to know is how many boilers of that type Shuang Liang sell every year and how many of them could have Clearsign technology in them?
WSJ says they have 2.5 billion in sales per year, I am assuming with the guidance on emissions over there that Clearsign can get a chunk of that, once the CHinese government mandates something there's not a lot anyone can do about it except obey. NOX levels gotta come down and this is one way of doing it.
I am going to give this a figure of 5 million dollars by EOY
2) Exxonmobil - Will we get a follow up order this year... seems too good to be true but maybe in Q4 2021 after insallation is completed in Q3. Depending on their capex spending it could be large or small??
I am going to say that it's another 5 million based on 4 multi burner orders
3) California Boiler, Ashcor, World Oil, Zeeco all with potential to bring in more orders before EOY.
Conservative estimate of another 5m.
Total for this year could be 15m, based on a cash burn rate of between 1.5 and 2m this would put CLearsign in a great position and coming from what is basically zero revenue. Every year Clearsign makes an operating loss, when companies like this turn the coner of actually declaring a profit it is massive for the share price and I think this will happen in 2022 so I am in for a good long haul on this one with a PT of +100% by Q2 2022 or sooner.
GLTA
#CLIR Target $3.20Project Comprised of 16 ClearSign Core™ Process Burners in Two Heaters
SEATTLE, Nov. 18, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- ClearSign Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: CLIR) ("ClearSign" or the "Company"), an emerging leader in industrial combustion and sensing technologies that improve energy, operational efficiency and safety while dramatically reducing emissions, today announced that it has received a purchase order from a Fortune 500 national refiner in connection with the first phase of the project to retrofit two process heaters with eight ClearSign Core™ burners each to be installed in their Midwest refinery.
The project consists of three phases. The first is the receipt of the purchase order, which includes the fabrication and demonstration of a single burner. The second phase is planned to be an order for the remaining seven burners to complete the first heater. The anticipated third and final stage will be an eight burner order for the second heater.
"We are proud to announce the start of this multi heater project comprised of a total of sixteen ClearSign Core burners," said Jim Deller, Ph. D, CEO of ClearSign. "While this our largest process burner project to date, and also our first order from this major USA refiner, what is also encouraging is that this customer was driven to our solution to increase the process throughput of these heaters while also being able to benefit from our best in class NOx emissions reduction. We are pleased to see our technology become more recognized and known in the prominent companies of the industry, and continue to look forward to its ongoing adoption, and the benefits we can provide for refining productivity and reduced air borne emissions."
**Disclaimer - This is not a financial advice, please trade with caution and on your own risk.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. Risk Only What You Can Afford. Always Use a Stop Loss. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
I would appreciate your feedback on my analysis.
Cheer
CLIR | ABC Correction almost completeHey all,
Clearsign Technologies seems to be on its way to completing an ABC corrective structure before its next impulse wave up.
Not hugely convincing but I would like to add to my preexisting position around 3.50$.
Good luck to all!
(*This is not financial advice, for sake of discussion and illustrative purposes only*)
Clearsign a clear winnerCompany Overview
ClearSign Technologies Corporation designs and develops products and technologies for the purpose of improving key performance characteristics of industrial and commercial systems, including operational performance, energy efficiency, emission reduction, safety and overall cost-effectiveness. Our patented technologies, embedded in established OEM products as ClearSign Core™, and ClearSign Eye™ and other sensing configurations, enhance the performance of combustion systems and fuel safety systems in a broad range of markets, including the energy (upstream oil production and down-stream refining), commercial/industrial boiler, chemical, petrochemical, transport and power industries.
The key takeaway from this is actually emission reduction. You are all aware of California and it's abhorrence of emissions, and where California is treading the rest of the world is following. China is on a big push to reduce emisions and improve air quality, Europe is also on that same push. Electrictrification of cars gets a lot of the attention here , Hydrogen and green fuels also get a lot of the headlines but quietly working away doing their thing is Clearsign.
Are Clearsign part of the green revolution? Yes they are.
Do they have a CEO that likes to shout about it? No they don't. Part of the reason I like the company.
Let's get into some financials...I am not a broker or economics person so I will keep this short.
They don't have any income, this is part of the reason I believe they are undervalued. The last time I posted about this company on Reddit the only comment was 'I wouldn't invest in this because Yahoo says it has no income'. Yet the stock is up 100% since then so what is going on.
Well their main product is a replacement burner, it has taken a long time to refine/test this burner and they have developed relationships with major companies that are coming to fruition now. It achieves industry leading NOX levels <2.5ppm, they have spent the last three years working with Exxon at their test facility in Seattle going through some of the most rigorous testing with a view to Exxon rolling it out across California and the rest of the states. Their burner can be used for process, refining etc
This resulted in an order from Exxon for one burner and my presumption is that it is the first of many.
Shortly after this Exxon order came about another order was announced from an unnamed European super major to be installed in Europe. It seems obvious to me that others are watching this test with Exxon and are ready to follow suit. Most companies try to treat the emissions afterward... like putting a filter on your chimney, Clearsign changes the way the burn happens and achieves lower nox levels from the getgo. Not only is this abetter way of doing things, it is actually a lot cheaper, retrofits are reasonably straighforward and the costs are considerably less. Why wouldn't people want it?
They have a partnership deal with California burner for sales and have just stated that there is a market of 7000 burners in California alone that they are targeting. .....and that is before I get to CHina!
In line with the company's commercialization plans for its fire tube boiler burner products in China, the product type testing application was successfully submitted and accepted by the Chinese government burner testing authorities. Acceptance of ClearSign's formal application was required before the government agreed to proceed and schedule formal 'on-site' commercial burner product testing for safety, performance and to verify that the burner is in compliance with the Chinese regulations. The formal testing was recently completed by government representatives and the full application was then submitted for review by the Chinese authorities. The company hopes to get a formal response by the end of the second quarter.
The company is also pursuing a strategic sales channel and alliance through a CFA with China's top tier boiler company Jiangsu Shuang Liang Boiler Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of China's Shuang Liang Group Co. Ltd, which is one of China's top 500 enterprises. Shuang Liang Boiler Company has the largest market share and ranks as China's number one boiler manufacturer in the industrial boiler, district heating boiler, and commercial and institutional boiler markets, with over 700 active sales personnel and sales offices strategically located throughout China. The company has been developing a relationship with Shuang Liang Boiler company now for some time, leading to their participation in the formal burner the testing process.
So where do I see the share price going .... up of course! I don't believe that very much of their future sales potential has been factored into the price, I think that in 12 months time this will be +100% again as the sales will have started to appear as revenue and several more contracts will have been announced in China for various heating districts there. The European major will have been named, there will be probably be more large players added to the list of customers and it will be impossible to ignore the fact that revenue is going to increase dramatically in the coming years from it's very very low base at the moment.
I will leave you with the overview from their most recent press statement. I picked up more shares at 4.7 last week, (there may be another dip below 5) and Clearsign is now my 2nd biggest position. This is not financial advice, please do your own DD and GLTA in these volatile times. I should mention that HC Wainright have a target of 10 bucks but I am not sure I think much of Wainright predictions however they are the only analyst covering it at the moment. I think when it holds about 5 bucks it will probably get more coverage.
Recent strategic and operational highlights during and subsequent to the fourth quarter and full year 2020 include:
Successfully Installed a Multi-Unit Process Burner Order for Major Energy Infrastructure Company: The installation is made up of three burners in an existing process heater at a California storage and transportation terminal. The burners were sold by ClearSign's channel affiliate, California Boiler, who were a subcontractor to the overall project management company, R. A. Nichols Engineering.
Completed the Performance Testing and Application for Firetube Boiler Burner Certification in China and Signed a Collaboration Framework Agreement (CFA) with Jiangsu Shuang Liang Boiler Co. Ltd: The Company completed the government performance testing required for their 2-ton fire tube boiler burner to be sold in the Chinese market. The performance testing results have been submitted along with the required documentation for certification in China. Assuming the certification is granted, the Company can then produce, market and sell the burners in the Chinese market. Additionally, the Company signed a non-binding CFA agreement with Jiangsu Shuang Liang Boiler Co. Ltd to provide a next generation ultra-low emission, and high efficiency integrated boiler burner package for the Chinese market.
Entered into an Agreement with California Boiler for Sale and Installation of 2.5 ppm NOx Capable Ultra-Low Emission Boiler Burners and Low Emission Flares: The agreement is for the sale and installation of "ClearSign Core™" enabled ultra-low NOx combustion equipment into the U.S. market. Both companies will be responsible for sales, California Boiler will be responsible for installation and the provision of controls, and ClearSign will provide the technology and product design.
Received Process Burner Order from Super Major Global Refinery for European Installation: The order, from a global refining company, is to design, fabricate and supply the Company's ClearSign Core process burner for installation in a European refinery. This is the first purchase from this customer and the second super major customer for the Company.
Target price is 6.25 dollars short term which is a 20% gain and longer term target is 100% or 10.4
CLIR to jump significantlyInteresting stock here,
ClearSign Technologies Corp. engages in the design and development of technologies for the combustion systems. Its product Duplex technology focuses on the performance enhancement of combustion systems in a broad range of markets, including the energy, commercial and industrial boiler, chemical, petrochemical, and power industries.
A while back CLIR agreed a potentially massive deal with Exxon, this was dependent on a test they would run in with conjunction with Exxon at one of their burners in a real situation as a follow up to testing they had already done at a research facility in Seattle. Almost goes without saying but the results from the Seattle research were impressive and the test with Exxon is the final part of a multi year working relationship with that company to roll this out to many more sites over the next years.
I have been waiting for this movement in the stock for a while now, last week it dropped about 10% for a day and then rose immediately the next day, I believe this was someone with deep pockets manipulating the stock to try and get more shares at a cheaper price by triggering stop losses, this leads me to believe that there is an announcement coming soon with regard to the test being completed and a contract being finalised on foot of that.
I actually expect a lot more from this stock then what I have indicated on the chart I think it could spike as much as 50% plus but for me it doesn't really matter as it is one of my stocks that I will probably hold for a few years.
If you look at the historic price from several years ago it was above 6 and I expect it to attract insitutional investment and go back to that level again, either that or it may be a good target for a buyout, either way it is a long hold for me though I may sell some if there is a large spike that i think will retrace.
Recent news about them starting to text again on burners in China also helps with the future of this stock ... it's really only up from here ..
For the purposes of this idea my target is 3.48 from it's current 2.87 which is a gain of 20%, you might be able to catch another dip before news comes but don't say I didn't warn you
Good luck trading and this is not the advice of a professional...
CLEARSIGN TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATIONNASDAQ:CLIR
Another interesting paper.
For several months, the long player was gaining position.
On June 16, he sold some volumes.
Naturally, after such growth, we see shorts players entering the game.
The price has fallen for several days, but the upper limit of the channel was formed with a downward trend.
And now we can see again a position gaining by the long player and the forming a pressure under the level.
Perhaps, this paper does not go today, but definitely I leave it on my long-list.
Exxon Mobil purchase orderClearSign Technologies Corporation Receives Multi-Unit Process Burner Order from ExxonMobil
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received a purchase order from ExxonMobil to fabricate and install the company's ClearSign Core™ process burners at its Baytown, Texas refinery.
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www.marketwatch.com
finance.yahoo.com
CLIR - In The Trend - Could Keep Moving UpClearSign Combustion Corp. engages in the design and development of technologies for the combustion systems. Its product Duplex technology focuses on the performance enhancement of combustion systems in a broad range of markets, including the energy, commercial and industrial boiler, chemical, petrochemical, and power industries. The company was founded by Richard F. Rutkowski, David B. Goodson, and Geoffrey D. Osler on January 23, 2008 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.
SHORT INTEREST
1.17M 08/15/19
P/E Current
-3.25
P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items)
-3.76
CLIR Swing TradeCLIR looks like a potentially great swing trade with a sizable return. I am waiting for the tenkan-sen (blue) line to cross the kijun-sen (red) line to confirm the stock is in a bullish uptrend. If confirmed, I will play this stock until $4.00 for a potential 25-30% return. This all depends on where the uptrend is confirmed and how the MACD indicator plays out.