IIPR Strong Bull Breakout - Possible Buy ClimaxLast week broke out strongly above a tight trading range. This week and last week are two very strong bull bars - but a possible buy climax. These two bars are the strongest pair of bars since the Dec rally began, increasing the probability of a buy climax and correction soon. Prices may continue higher for a week or two, but it is a risky time to buy. More likely there will be profit taking soon and the bulls will wait and look to buy after two legs sideways to down. The first and obvious location for the bulls to begin buying again is below this breakout, and the tight trading range, around 80.
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0JBD trade ideas
Contrarian IIPR Theory: Pot Stocks Hot Again in a Cooling MarketAs investors seek alpha plays outside of the S&P500 and DOW30, I expect that the pot stocks will heat up again. IIPR is a great one, especially since they're a REIT and have to deliver profits to shareholders in the form of dividends, but also because its one of the few pot stocks to make it on to a major market index: the Russell 2000. This is definitely a contrarian play, and I don't like to make too many of those, but I don't think I'm standing in front of a train on this particular one.
Technicals are weaker here on this one. I'm long, but it's got me nervous and watching. I'm definitely making a contrarian play here, so you may want to wait a few more days to see if my theory plays out, but I expect that their earnings hit (no surprise up or down, very rare!) is going to be a catalyst for investors seeking high growth alpha stocks beyond the traditional growth options. Other pot stocks are doing terrible after earnings calls, but I suspect that this last one is going to be the catalyst for IIPR to start climbing back up that chart again.
BullishThis is one of the only ways to collect a dividend on MJ stocks. With their focus on triple net leases for the Medical Cannabis companies they will show a steady growth. A new partnership with (UPREIT) they will be able to reach new deals with an larger infrastructure.
I'll take the dip with upside of 95+
IIPR Short-term Long OpportunityPeep this nice rising wedge pattern that price has respected for the last several weeks. I'm playing a 7% potential profit long to the top of the wedge.
We're riding along a nice horizontal support around $84 and also hovering over a month-long trendline support on RSI. Solid setup with a great risk/reward ratio.
Entry: 84
TP: 90
S/L: 82.75
R/R: 3.65
IIPR: Going Sky HighIIPR is an excellent stock to own in the new MJ alternative harvest ETF index tracker, and it's been very kind to me in 2019. I bought in slowly right up to my risk tolerance thresholds, and it's far exceeded expectations this current bull run cycle. They're a REIT, so they produce a dividend, and since they only own and manage the properties and leave the actual harvesting of product to the firms that lease the space, they're one degree removed from the high risk operations that others like CRON and CGC and ACB and others are dealing with in regards to potential opportunities in US markets and regulators and financial system rules. They've also been added to the Russell 2000 small cap index, so there is a rush of new institutional buying going on during this season's quadruple witching volume from the desk traders at fund management firms of various types.
On the technicals, they're strong. They dipped recently along with everyone else in the market place, so that was more of a beta event with a strong alpha generating rebound. Yours truly got in earlier, but too early to report it with confidence to the wide world of TradingView. All indicators are going full steam, and the only thing to be concerned with is that they are currently trading higher than ever before, so this is currently setting higher highs. The MACD histogram just crossed up positive strongly, money flow spike up hard, and the price is riding up hard on the top Bollinger band with the 10 day SMA bouncing up off the 20 day SMA yet again in their current regime cycle wave. There is so much desk trader money going into this right now that I expect atleast another 10-15% in returns within the next week with price targets up to $101 from analysts and $110-$115 from me, so there's huge profit potential if you're willing to stick your neck out for the risk with tight stops.
Volatility on this sector is high with rapidly shifting regime changes. If you choose to trade on IIPR or its peers, be aware of the additional risks and plan your portfolio allocations appropriately and never put more than 20% to 25% of your capital in a single stock unless you want to learn the lessons of the past the hard way.
IIPR TO GO SHORT SOON?As you can see, market follows a pattern to the upside and it is now at the top of the channel where it should start headed down toward the bottom of the channel. This should bank a good amount of profit on the sell side if you follow closely over the next month or two.
DISCLAIMER;
Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire. IF YOU SUPPORT MY IDEAS THEN PLEASE LIKE, FOLLOW & SHARE. ~ THANKS! ~
IIPR Bottoming for next leg up Lets talk pot stocks.
To be honest, I stumbled on this one when looking for an over-run pot stock to short. Then I read what they actually do, and it kind of blew my mind (just a little).
Because pot is not federally legal, medical dispensaries can't work with banks (for the most part). IIPR is technically a REIT, but their real value comes from sale-leasebacks which essentially act as a loan to these medical marijuana companies. For example, IIPR (as I understand it) purchases medical marijuana facilities from dispensaries and leases these facilities back to the dispensaries at rates upwards of 15%. The dispensaries must still maintain the locations, IIPR simply collects the checks.
As of last month, IIPR had about 160 million in assets and owned 5-9 properties (4 are being worked out currently). A solid start for a company which just began in 2016. Last week, IIPR filed for a prospectus for 300 million in securities offering, which would allow them to TRIPPLE in size.
To sum up, this is a company that A) has a real economic value for these medical dispensaries due to current legal status of working with banks, B) has way less debt then other medical marijuana plays because it OWNS the properties and C) Easily identifiable cash flows which make forecasting much easier then other pot companies, as well as what I see as a self sustaining cash printing machine until the overall market hits a downturn or banks are allowed to work with marijuana companies (which would then only affect IIPRs growth prospects).
Technicals:
- The 50 SMA/ EMA seems to be providing some support for the stock, as the 2-hour MACD has flipped to the bullish side (while the daily is simply flat).
- The recent breakout to new highs (after a cup and shoulder) indicates further upwards momentum
- Huge volume on friday (on no news!)
- Stochastics on RSI have flipped (while RSI slightly turning upwards)
While this may not quite have found its short term bottom, I believe the likelihood is that it HAS - or at worst will early this next week. I am buying in quarters of a position, and have half a position in at this time. On any weakness I will buy more to fill out the position. The .5 retracement will be my stop as it converges with the bottom of the ichimoku cloud and the 100 day smooth moving average. I will take profits at the 1.236.
Total Reward/Risk : 2.5/1 or 24%/9.5%
For a more short term trade, I would use the .618 ichimoku as the stop loss and the peak for profit taking (looks like more of a 3/1 or 3.5/1)
Disclaimer:
This is meant for educational purposes only and should not be taken for investment advice. I am not a professional investment advisor.
IIPR Very Loose Uptrend VisionJust looking at the short time this stock has been public, and just looking at how crazy scattered the 4hr candles are (not much better on any other small time frames, too few candles on larger ones) I know that I am "throwing lines on a chart" here in almost the typically derogatory way. But this is mostly a framework for me. I have been in this since almost the beginning, and I was really intrigued to see how it behaved on the correction after the presumed New Year's boost it would get from weed legalization in the companies operating state CA. Thankfully, they were able to pull out a much higher earnings than was projected for the first quarter of 2018, and this has helped them keep that momentum going. With a little emotional bias I am calling this a long, though my rational self would say its too hard to tell.
The longer the candles linger at those horizontal lines, the more "evidence" they have that this is a true horizontal support/resistance. The more bounces off or, crosses followed by corrections of the channel line are similarly indicative of the correctness of my "shot in minimal light" so to speak. It's the nature of the game with young public companies.
MOST IMPORTANTLY WATCH THE BOTTOM CHANNEL LINE. A continued break below this (over 12hrs, I am selling 10% and watching out) may mean my emotions got the best of me and this uptrend is way to generous. Will always keep a little, but will take profits if I see it heading towards a sideways or downtrend.
I am the stupidest person I know and none of this is investment advice.