PCAR PennantPCAR is forming a pennant, up side target is earnings gap fill, down side is the earnings bottom. Really weird intraday resistance at $85, which was my bull flag target that I last posted.
Market seems bullish so I'm guessing gap fill.
0KET trade ideas
PCAR UpdateI've still been trading this on days when I feel bullish, I bought EOD yesterday for the PCE pump tomorrow, but I closed it out this morning when it went up 3%. That was more than my target for FRIDAY, lol.
RSI is overbought on the daily with MFI divergence. I did revise my plot though, and it looks like it COULD hit $85. I'm content with my easy 3% overnight profit though. I had a boss that used to call me "Easy Money", I will stick to that.
PCAR UpdateWell, it actually hit my bull flag target, lol. Yes, I did grab a few bucks off of it, but wish I had gotten more of it. Oh well.
Anyways, looks like a repeat of last June or August, might go long for a day if it double gaps down tomorrow. Not playing the gap fill today, I'm guessing it double gaps.
Also, daily RSI hit overbought, so it's probably cycling down. Be cautious on any long trades here.
PCAR UpdateOne of the first stocks on my board to go red after the big pump this morning.
I have seen PCAR act like this before, it's on a definite downtrend as shown with the purple line. Don;t go long until it breaks that line.
Just warning my followers since I'm usually very bullish on this stockl
PCAR PennantNo really sure if this is a true e=pennant or if it's just going flat like last summer (highlighted)
Kinda surprised it finished flat on a day the market tanked, not sure if that's bullish or just part of the whipsaw.
Indicators all flatlined as well.
PCAR Pennant UpdatePennant just got bigger.
Based on the fact that PCAR did not set a new calendar year high with the market, I don't think this is breaking out. Also sold off the John Deere earnings pump as did DE and CAT.
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People who trade industrial sector are a bit more grounded than the rest of he traders, this isn't a tech stock, lol. I was actually surprised by the Oct/Nov pump along with the Jan earnings pump, didn't catch all of it, but made money off of both.
PCAR PennantPCAR is forming a pennant, there is an open gap above but I don't think that guarantees that this breaks upwards. I also have a bias towards pennant being a continuation pattern, not a reversal.
Either way, I think it whipsaws at least a couple more days.
Note: This is an hourly chart so indicators aren;t very meaningful unless you are day trading.
PCAR UpdateLooks like the regional bank whipsaw again, lol. Same pattern as last time when SIVB went belly up, the highlighted area.
I'll wait until daily MFI gets oversold, PCAR always bounces then. Wasn;t sure which way AAPL earnings was gonna go yesterday afternoon, so I stayed out. WOuld have been a nice one day trade though, I love big gaps.
PCAR UpdatePCAR left an open gap this morning. Appears to be drifting sideways after the January earnings pump.
Might buy in tomorrow after the Fed meeting.
PCAR Earnings Tuesday premarketLooks bullish, but having issues regaining the upward channel.
Have not re-entered this trade after dumping Tuesday morning because my ES1! (SPX futures) indicators have not shown a buy signal. I think the strength this week is because of earnings next week, this did get pumptarded last quarter.
As I posted before, semi truck sales have been strong this year, so I expect PCAR to beat. The big question is guidance. Bull and bear targets both shown. Will only go long if my ES1! indicators show buy.... I get the feeling that it'll wind up being a pump and dump where it gaps up but goes red Tuesday. The only reason why I want to play it is because this has been my biggest winner the past year and a half. Can't really recommend this as a strong play.
PCAR UpdateLooks like crap today, lol. I did post that I sold all my shares yesterday morning right after I sold.
Bull scenario is still the green line but it looks just the same as it did when it failed to break out and tanked on bank news. Overlay is that drop.
Even with my bear scenario, it still gets a pre-earnings pump like last quarter, so there's a chance to play that when it hits support at the $64 or 65 range. That pump would then create the right shoulder in a H&S pattern.
Time to look for a new stock to play I guess (bummer). I'm still inclined to play any gaps.
PCAR UpdateDaily MFI went oversold which is very bullish, plus I think ES1! (SPX futures) fills the open gap above.
Not sure if it does it this earnings or July, but I think PCAR hits my $82 target then drifts sideways for a while.
If today wasn't the local double bottom, I'm adding on the drop.
I also revised my wedgie into a parallel channel.
PCAR UpdateLooks to me like it's finally gonna get that gap fill either tomorrow or Monday. Earnings a month from now.
Went long this morning. Probably just gonna hold if the market whipsaws.
PCAR UpdateAll of my followers know that I have a gap fill rule for PCAR, it always fills down gaps. Unfortunately, this looks more like the "oh shit" moment that happened at the beginning of the COVID drop. I lost quite a bit of money on that, if you remember it dropped hard the next day, and that gap stayed open for a long time.
Fact of the matter is, this bank issue is going to cause problems for truck purchases, so fundamentally it's a problem. the other thing is, PCAR broke an upward wedgie, so it looks like it's headed to the next support. Makes sense since it just lost this one.
I don't short PCAR because GM options have better liquidity. No position until it hits support.
PCAR Bull ScenarioThe bull scenario for PCAR is that I drew the wedgie wrong and it's still in an ascending wedgie. I had plotted $81 - 82 as the target before this bank crisis.
the market does have a weird tendency to rally into a Fed meeting even when the market expects a rate hike. Remember he Jan meeting?
PCAR UpdateThis chart pattern it posted today reminds of f previous tops. Market went green but PCAR dumped the gap almost immediately today.
Overlayed a previous drop, I think this megaphone pattern continues until next earnings.
No position.
PCAR UpdateBeen staring at it all week since it left an open gap Friday, finally decided to play it this morning as noted in my ES1! post.
PCAR always fills open down gaps, so I figured it's the best play I can find on a whipsaw day. looking at how MFI went up, I'm thinking it might go overbought again on the daily which means this could be a bull flag.
So I posted 3 targets:
- Gap fill
- H&S target (this is the bear scenario)
- Bull flag target
Will decide tomorrow if I'm gonna hold it past the gap fill. Depends on what the rest of the market is doing.
This is still my favorite stock for my retirement account.
PCAR Weekly chartI was looking at the chart today thinking PCAR hasn't moved like this since the COVID bounce.... then I realized last year was a bull flag.
So funny thing is, the target here is the same as my daily chart, $81 - 82 range, maybe slightly higher. Might not hit the target until next earnings though, which is April 24th.
PCAR UpdateI day traded the gap fill yesterday, so gap fills are still a valid play, but I'm bearish on PCAR because it always seems to be weak after Q4 earnings. The market is "selling the news" on the stock split as well.
I overlayed the 2022 chart to show expected pattern, it won't be exactly the same but I plan to do only short term trades (day trade or 2 days) until summer.
PCAR alternate scenarioI had this plotted as a H&S pattern but it looks more like an ascending wedge. If it breaks out I might day trade it.
Not holding it for the Fed meeting though, not sure which way Powell goes.
PCAR UpdateWhipsawing now that the earnings short squeeze is over. Looks to me like a H&S type pattern, expecting weakness before the Fed meeting next week.
Looks to me like it'll back test the old resistance next week, note that this chart is NOT dividend adjusted. What happens after will depend on the Fed, so I will wait until after the press conf to play this again.
GM/PCAR DivergenceAn interesting chart, GM and PCAR has historically moved in the same direction, PCAR makes semi trucks. The past year there has been a major divergence between the two stocks.
Something has to give though.... either we go into a recession and PCAR goes down or we don't and GM goes up. Expect this gap to close in one direction or the other. I still think a recession is the only way out for the Fed to get rid of their MBS, not entirely convinced they have the balls to do it.
This is why I've been rather cautious on trading PCAR. Figured I'd post this chart since I've been bullish on PCAR for the past year. Plus the stock tends to be weak after Q4 earnings, usually until Q2 earnings.
PCAR Earnings TomorrowPCAR has a tendency to gap up and then sell off on earnings then whipsaw back up. Something to watch out for if the numbers are good tomorrow.
Obviously gonna tank if they don't beat, it's basically at ATH.
Anyways, earnings tomorrow. No position yet since it tends to whipsaw on earnings. Wish I had played the pre-earnings pump though.
