0KXI trade ideas
ROKU_TearSurprised by ROKU, a streaming device crushing during COVID, its earnings seem to have a low-bar to jump, making it an interesting stock to put on your list...Not sure about ROKU sales? BUT it has been crushing since after it destroyed its most recent earnings...Maybe a good risk-off strategy; YET, currently, it is crazy expensive and could not be based on intrinsic value with AMZN GOOG and AAPL being in the streaming device space.
$ROKU — A Long Term Analysis | Continuation of Previous PostBack on August & nearly 100% ago I posted my $ROKU thoughts on Trading View:
I wanted to make this post a bit of a continuation as this is a trade I continue to stick with for the long term.
$ROKU is beginning to hit my first long term target of $300 - much quicker than I thought for better or worse. With 100% gains in just 4 months it is no doubt fair to say that $ROKU is overextended and hitting an upside target. I think it would be fair to say there's some potential RSI (but not TTM Squeeze) divergences and expecting a pullback at $300 wouldn't be the craziest thing; however, on this stock I am an investor, and I want to position myself for the long term.
First thing to note is that technically this run can go on for a while, even to my 2022 target of $775. The upward channel that has formed off March lows is powerful and reminds me of something like $NVDA, $AAPL, $ZM, $AMD that can ride a trend-lines up for a couple quarters to years. This uptrend is incredibly healthy and nothing in it suggests I should be concerned about a reversal.
ROKU
AMD
Look at the way $ROKU behaved before and after earnings. $ROKU was consolidating in the middle of its channel (not an easy buy or sell per channel), initially shot up after earnings only to sell back off; only then-after to push to new highs where we find it today. In fact, after earnings, $ROKU found itself nearly breaking down below $220: the strength in this stock is incredible and reflects a sustainable trend.
Building on this, it appears that CTV and streaming on the whole is getting repriced. Stocks like $FUBO, $CMCSA, $MGNI, $TTD are prime examples of this. COVID is driving forward the transition to programmatic advertising/streaming platforms and the market is attempting to price this. It is therefore par for the course that bears come in and complain these gains are "stay at home" related and will fade as vaccines come out. This seems like a bunch of nonsense to me. While COVID has certainly pulled demand forward, this transition is here to stay. Companies like $ROKU are dominating markets, $MGNI is being repriced after it was found to trade at a completely ridiculous valuation (low), $FUBO is being recognized as a potential huge growth "streaming pure play" stock.
FUBO
CMCSA
MGNI
TTD
$ROKU is unique to me, however. Fundamentally it is too cheap. Assuming $ROKU will make 2.25B and grow at 40% (seems fairly "in line" to me), it will trade at about 16x sales. If you compare other companies like $SHOP or $TWLO with comparable growth and gross margins you find that $ROKU is a bit cheaper (but maybe not much) than both of these while presenting just as a compelling investment. This isn't unique though, there are many companies that trade at high p/s valuations due to a high sustainable growth rate. What is unique about $ROKU is how it acquires users and gets them into their ecosystem. This one point is so simple and yet so key to understanding the business. 1/3rd of the business sells hardware at cost while the other 2/3rds sells ads at 60-65% gross margins. (With this in mind, we might as well value for its ad business exclusively: 50-60% growth on likely 1.6-1.7B revenues, 60-65% gross margins - $ROKU trades at 22x its 2021 advertising business, this is well below comparable peers like $TTD, $DDOG that trade at well above 30x sales). By essentially giving away hardware, $ROKU can acquire a user to their platform. Once acquired the consumption numbers are staggering. "Total hours streamed" growth is absolutely astounding as is ARPU growth at the level of ARPU $ROKU sports. (Link to ER: ir.roku.com)
Fundamentally I argue, $ROKU has room to run still. In fact at $100B cap or $775 I see $ROKU as really just gaining the recognition that it deserves. It does not surprise me that $ROKU is at $300, and it will not surprise me if $ROKU pulls back a bit. I remain bullish on $ROKU for the long term as I am bullish on streaming & CTV in the long term. I am also long $MGNI $FUBO.
Roku Downside? End Of Wave 3?After hitting $350, I count 5 completed waves. I see a significant pullback below $300 at least. You could sell long shares and re-enter lower, or bulk buy a big dip. Either way it’s a 5 year company for me with explosive upside. Be in.
$ROKU at critical level after morning hikeHBO max pushed above ATH and all the way to 350+ now at 329.x. For the short term this should hold this level. Long term its going to be 400+ stock IMO
$ROKU HBO deal seems to form a short term topIt was a holding a bid over $340 after HBO deal but then gave in eventually after negative comments on CNBC. It is looking ripe to test $310 - $317 area
Explosive Upside Potential. Breakout Pending. Long StrategyGreetings. I'm bullish on ROKU given the patterns and technical indicators represented on the monthly, weekly, and daily. The chart above is a 10D chart, which represents two trading weeks. Once price breaks above resistance at $177.54, I expect ROKU to reach $290 by April 2021. A potential strategy for options traders is to purchase deep ITM LEAPS that expire January 2022.
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer. My ideas are for informational purposes only. My ideas do not constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. You should not construe any such information or other comments as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, options and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Please exercise your own due diligence.
Roku pull back in playMA 50 and 200 on the 5 min chart are about to cross over triggering a pull back. On watch
Time to turn off RokuAll good things must come to an end, and I believe the time for Roku's run has come to one. I am notoriously bad at calling tops, so don't trade this.
$ROKU stopped t 330Need to close above 309. Long term though I think this is 400$+ stock. 330, 339, 350. Won't be surprised to see 350 by Jan 20.
Bull FlagKnown as a momentum stock, Roku is in a long term uptrend at this point with a hammer on monthly
(LE) = Long entry
Ooverbought territory with RSI set at 70
I keep RSI at 80 and 20 so not qite overbought if RSI is set to 80. Some folks wait for a stock to be overbought on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. I start watching very, very closely at 80 on the daily time frame
Known to be volatile, but nothing in life worth having is easy, is it? LOL
Just an observation
Target 1: Size of the Flag
The first target of a confirmed Flag pattern can be derived using the measured move technique. The measured move target is a distance equal to the size of the flag. To measure the size of the flag, you would just take the vertical distance between the upper and the lower channel within the flag.
Then you would apply this distance starting from the breakout point. Your first target is located at the end of this distance.
Target 2: Size of the Pole
The next target of the Flag formation equals the size of the Flag Pole. So, to get this target 2, you need to measure the vertical distance between the high and the low of the Pole. Once you get that distance, you will need to apply it to the pattern. Again, as we did with Target 1, you would apply it starting from the breakout point.
*THIS IS TOP* *TIME TO SHORT*who tf buying roku at $300 it's not even as memey as zoom
REALITY CHECK
ROKU fundamental analysis - foundation to dateBasic chart analysis from Roku date open to public to day.
$ROKUElliot wave, currently in a wave 3 within a wave 5 of a primary 3 count. Once primary wave 3 is complete, looking for a wave 4 range $220-260 before moving higher to equal leg of primary wave 1 around $360. I’m experimenting with the trend based fib time tool with the expectation that wave 4 may end between late March to May 2021.
ROKU City - in 3D - partly sunny with scattered showersprice bounced back to the channel midline after a dip - awaiting more information.
