0LD8 trade ideas
$TGT ready for a bounceI think I missed part of the ride from the 50ish, anyway good resistance on the 200MA with a cone type trend lines, Maybe it will break away??????? let see if it works long.
on $TGT retail not deadlooking good inverse head and shoulder holding. Lets see the Friday closing price. Good LT portfolio name.
Target’s Still “On Target” to $45 Support $TGTTarget ($TGT) Weekly: Like many of its peers in the industry, Target is trying to find direction and support after the Amazon news on acquiring Whole Foods, as well as the general weakness in the retail sector. Although it appears to be a more favored stock over, say a stock like Walmart, mainly because it’s been beaten up for a year as the retail sector struggles, and some view it as a bargain at these levels, I still think that this is headed to find support at the $45 level, perhaps leading in to its earnings in mid August. It has hit the lows of around $50 and added a couple of bucks since then, and it may look to test that 50 day moving average resistance at around $55, I think the long term magnet is to the historically important $45 level in the next few weeks, if not months. Monthly view remains to show more room to the downside to come before the stock is solidly in oversold territory.
Target's Near Term Price Target to $45 Looking for SupportTarget ($TGT) Monthly: Target is getting smacked in kind with rest of the retail/grocers after today's announcement of Amazon's ($AMZN) buy out of Whole Foods ($WFM). When companies like Kroger ($KR) are experiencing these kinds of slashing downside moves, it's a good idea to take a breather and stay out of these stocks and let things settle out, instead of falling in to the temptation of guessing the bottoms and picking prices because they've come down so much in such little time. Just because a stock has had a 10-20% move PER DAY doesn't mean it can't go lower - in fact, when broad market/sector conditions are disrupted, the tendency is for people to hit the exits, and not catch falling knives. I've expressed these views on reddit to some folks who are itching to get in these stocks today.
Target shows a long term support at around $45 level, as shown in the monthly chart below. Looking at the RSI and MACD, i would expect this support to be tested in the near term, which means $TGT has further room to the downside. This also represents the .618 fib level. Having broken down from a multi-year channel from 2009 to beginning of 2017, i would expect price pass the .5 fib level (which it did) and extend to the .618 level given the technicals show more room to go. As always, watch the RSI and MACD to support higher moves in price, as indication that it may be turning around and headed higher. Right now, that's just not the case. Caution is recommended.
TGT - dividend champion for small money (4,4% dividend payout)If you look at the dividend payout ratio, you see that TGT is trading at 4,4% meaning that you get 4,4% yearly for your shares.
Company class A rating, 46% debt/ratio, stock's fair value is 63$ currently trading at 55$
Analyse stocks by looking at DIVIDEND GROWTH and DIVIDEND/PRICE Analyse stocks by looking at 3 MONTH time frame looking at Dividend Payouts and Dividend/Price Ratio.
For example: A stock that raises its dividends for many years now yearly by more than 10% and has currently a 4,2% dividend/price ratio (meaning you get 4,2% dividends per every USD you pay) is a good buy, since it is very cheap historically and will probably increase dividends in the next years, meaning you can double your money by dividends in approx. 10 years (additionaly adding the rise of stock value).
Use this indicator in stocks and 3 MONTHS timeframe (if your use stocks with 1 or 12 dividend payments per year, please switch to 1/12 month time frame).
Comparison between target, walmart, kohls, and kmart AND S&P 500As per the Corporate Strategy, Target decided venture in new grounds: SuperTargets and Groceries, Credit Cards, International Retail Presence, and the Stock Repurchasing Plan. Since SuperTargets were 40% bigger than the regular retail stores, this meant an increase in long-term assets. As per the Credit Cards issuance to its customers, Target was the first major discount store to have its own store card in 1995. In the long run, this decision turned against Target. The credit card receivables were growing and had to exit this part of the business. Maybe Target didn’t understand well the credit card business. However, when they decided to “sell the debt” to JP Morgan Chase, instead of continuing to write-off their receivables, the company started to get back on their feet. The company had no International Retail Presence (Walmart earned 24.2% of its total net revenues from outside the US market, however Target had no intentions of doing so by 2008). After starting the Stock Repurchasing Plan in 2004, the company had reinvested $9.44 billions in acquiring 184.4 million shares: “Target owned a larger portion of its real estate than other large retailers. One analyst estimated that Target owned 85% of its stores and other facilities and that these sites could be sold for $28 billion. If Target used this money to buy back shares it could reacquire approximately 60% of its outstanding shares.” This never happened because the company had to make decisions towards preserving cash and giving stability to the business. At the time the case was released, Walmart performed better. The company presented higher Annual Sales Growth and a higher Net Income Margin in 2007 and 2008. In 2006 Target out performed Walmart by 2.7%, in annual sales growth and 15.2% in Annual Net Income Growth. In 2007 Walmart took the lead with 2% and 10.6% in sales and net income growth, respectively. Finally, in 2008 Walmart strongly surpassed Target’s key growth rates by 5.2% in sales and 17% in net income. If compared today, Walmart is still performing better. Not just because of its liquidity in its operating cash flows, but because of its diversified market: National – Walmart US Segment tripled the number of stores and Sam’s Club Segment – and International, which also tripled the number of stores built. Also, the price per share for Target is $55.8 and Walmart presents a $77.24 price per stock.
Sell TGT Iron Condor May 52.5/47.5P, 58.5/62.5CTGT is having earning call on May 17, the same day as the May option expiration. I expect TGT will go side way before then. So I setup the Iron Condor to catch some money before then. Aim to close the position before May 17th.
drive.google.com
Positoin:
Put: -1x52.5/1x47.5
Call: -1*58.5/1x62.5
Breakeven: 51.67 to 59.33
PoP: 72%
Premium: 0.8$
Target Goal: 0.4$ (50% of the premium). This position is to be closed before May 17th, the earning date.
Potential Earnings Plays 2017/05/16URBN (Reports 5/16/2017 AC) IVR = 72.8, Expected Move = 8.41%
TGT (Reports 5/17/2017 BM) IVR = 100, Expected Move = 4.71%
Target continues urban expansionThe Lower East Side of Manhattan, a gritty precinct once famous for crime, junkies and denizens of punk rock, is about to get its first Target.
Long-term view on TGT- Weekly ChartTarget has really taken a beating lately, primarily due to them losing market share to the mammoth Amazon. With the most resent earnings, TGT has broken down below what had been downward sloping support. My expectation is we will have a slight sell off early this week (week of 4/3/2017) but will ultimately retest the line that had been support, but will now be resistance, which should occur around TGT $61.50 area. In my view, TGT will then trade sideways/down and eventually break-down with speed to ultimately hit $43.60's area, or the 1.414 fib level. The timing lines up with my view of the overall market and also is a point where TGT will be hitting long-term support. Not a huge fan of retailers dwindling in market share but if this does occur, it may set up for a nice buy given their decent dividend and at that price it would be considered cheap. In summary, in my view, you can buy now for the short-term bounce to $61 but you don't want to be holding this stock once it reaches that level!! Wait to buy Early/Mid 2018.
