$TOL BULLISH SET UP INTO EARNINGS Despite the fact that analysts are less than bullish on the stock, we have confidence that a good report will follow on from the rising home sales figures released last month. Toll brothers stock has suffered a deep correction from 2018 highs, but is now in a well defined uptrend with out target in the $43 region. Within the chart there is a possibility of a inverse H&S forming, with the price sitting on support a volume spike could validate the setup.
Given the fact that analysts are skeptical, a good earnings report could result in upgrades and a short squeeze in the days and weeks to follow.
ANALYSTS AVERAGE RATING HOLD
ANALYSTS AVERAGE PRICE TARGET $38
TOLL BROTHERS INC.
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, building, marketing, and arranging of financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The Traditional Home Building segment builds and sells homes for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in affluent suburban markets and and cater to move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers. The City Living segment builds and sells homes in urban infill markets through Toll Brothers City Living
0LFS trade ideas
Gems in a bear market rally: The homebuildersContinuing with my search for stocks to be bullish on (before I turn decidedly bearish as the S&P approaches 2625), I arrive at the homebuilders. Much like ANF ( as highlighted in my last idea ), homebuilders did not really enjoy the fruits of a massive rally over the past 10 years.
In the chart above, we see TOL has formed an almost perfect bullish triangle and has broken out above it during Friday's price action. Fundamentally, our current rally is being fueled by a supposedly dovish Fed (although I would argue that Powell is not actually dovish) and lower interest rates means more homes being financed and bought.
Similar bullish patterns exist in PHM, BZH and LEN so I think the whole sector is buyable here.
Buy TOL here at $35.33 with a target price of $38.75 and a stop of $33.80.
Toll Brothers heading towards the 50'sAs we can see in the chart TOL is on the crossing of 2 trend lines which provide strong support, this could act as a catalyst for a huge trend change.
Additionally, the stock got great fundamentals too, Its revenue and earnings are growing each year, the stock pe ratio is about 6 and the stock gives dividends.
I think this is a great time to buy, personally, I entered at 30.5 points and I believe in this stock.
Buy point - 30.75 points.
Sell point - 45-50 points (half a year to a year time span).
StopLoss - 28 points.
Toll Brother seeing support and possible trend change?Toll Brothers is looking like an appealing stock to me at this price range. The stock surely is showing some support at recent levels around $33.70, as well as what looks like a trend break to me. Toll Brothers stock has been beaten up since going public however it has created some decent market share for itself and continues to have average house prices increase. Another large factor for this decision is that price of lumber has fallen drastically in the past 4 or 5. Essentially as lumber prices go down, the companies expensive will also go down without effecting their income much. I forsee Toll Brothers over the next 2 months to reach an expected share price for of approximately $40. The link in order to see the information on lumber prices is found below.
Toll Brothers: ABCD completion with downside target at $38Interest rates are up and new home sales are slowing. Weekly ABCD completion for TOL and declining volumes. Downside potential to test congestion zone at $38 which coincides with a 50% retracement of the CD leg. Do note this is a weekly chart and the tactical price action appears to be basing, so there could be a better price to be had for initiating any short.
$TOL to rocket after earnings?Looking at this tending chart its easy to see that TOL has has a nice run as of lately. With a lack of liquidity for new home buyers in current markets, home builders have been seeing substantial upside in their businesses.
TOL is expected to beat earnings, may be a good run to the upside.
Please invest at your own risk, I'm not a professional nor do I claim to be.
Ref:
www.nahb.org
www.usatoday.com
www.nasdaq.com