DAL 1w to 6w trading outlookNYSE:DAL
This chart represents my 1w to 6w trading outlook on DAL.
Background: The unprecedented turmoil in which global airline industry found itself is yet to clear up and show signs of resolution, despite the fact that the covid-19 curve is somewhat flattening, this does not means that we are close to be back on track with the global economy's recovery. We are yet to truly and fully comprehend and measure the long term effects of covid-19 pandemic and its collateral damage to the global economy. As a result - entire industries will be reshaped and restructured and global recovery will potentially take years to get to the pre-pandemic levels of Dec 2019. Until there will be developed vaccine/herd vaccine - there will quite a lot sensitivity and edginess in the markets. CL1 (oil) broke the recent support despite the cut in production from last week which is not a bullish sign for the global economy. The market is on drugs and is not acting rationally (fed aggressively pumping money into the economy via intra-venous injections) and there likely will be bad withdrawal symptoms for the markets.
Potential catalyst this week - Q1 earnings call (expected on Apr 22nd).
This upcoming week we approaching Q1/20 earnings call (which apparently has been delayed for a couple of weeks and for good reasons).
It is obvious that Q1/20 earnings will be in red for the first time in over a decade. Since the beginning of the pandemic he company burnt through the vast majority of its cash and took on more debt and govt "relief". About 90% of its scheduled flights (=revenue) are cancelled and it is unclear when the company will return to fly at its full capacity if ever. What I will be paying close attention to is company's guidance and outlook for the rest of the year. Anything has to do with uncertainty and less-than-expected recovery outlook will potentially cause a sell-off and brake the current short-term support line (blue on the chart). As of today @24$ DAL is trading way over it's current market capitalization (under pandemic conditions and taking into account that recovery might take years) there's a lot of room towards the bottom.
Technicals - on the above chart you see near-term green support line and near-term red resistance line which outline the range in which the stock was trading in recent weeks since the outbreak of the pandemic in the US. In the last few weeks there was formed a support tine (blue line on the chart).
At the bottom of the chart you will see the white all time low line above which there are 4 yellow-ish strong historical support and resistance lines which will be relevant in case DAL breaks the short-term blue support line (potentially on the earnings call news next week). If this break happens - I expect the price to fall to 14.95$ area (top yellow historical resistance line) and in coming weeks after - followed by tumbling lower and settling to trade anywhere in the range of the yellow historical lines on the chart. If DAL breaks through and closes above 27.5$ - 28$ red resistance - sentiment is bullish and we will be looking into resistance line becoming a new support.
There are quite a few good trades that can be constructed with the described above scenario.
Share your thoughts with me.
Thank you for reading and good trading!
