SNAP - Snapped Back Into ActionSNAP recaptured a key historical level a confirmed it's validity with back test and local higher lows. Targeting 10, 12, & possibly 17 / gap fill at 14.
0RNH trade ideas
A BULLISH SNAPCHAT ANALYSIS SNAPCHAT has a neat chart setup long term. Here is a bullish look. I use a metric called NJT which analyzes total user hours available.
From a technical standpoint, there are gaps up to $70, and it could soar much higher. Think longer term investment, with short term jump potential.
Here is my summarized view with a little help from Grok (X).
"Overview of Snap Inc.'s Assets and Valuation
Snap Inc., the parent company of Snapchat, is a publicly traded technology company listed on the NYSE under the ticker SNAP. Founded in 2011 by Evan Spiegel, Bobby Murphy, and Reggie Brown, it focuses on multimedia messaging, augmented reality (AR), and related products. Below, I outline Snap Inc.'s key assets, estimate their valuation based on available data, and apply the NJT (Net Joint Time) metric to contextualize its user engagement in the competitive landscape of 2025-2026. The NJT metric, defined as monthly active users (MAUs) × average time spent per user per month, is used to assess user hours, with the global pool estimated at 285.6 billion user hours per month (9.52 billion hours/day × 30 days).
Key Assets of Snap Inc.
Snap Inc. owns several products and services, with Snapchat being the flagship. Here’s a breakdown of its primary assets as of June 2025:
Snapchat (Core Multimedia Messaging App)
Description: Snapchat is a visual messaging app allowing users to send ephemeral photos and videos, with features like Stories, Snap Map, Discover, and AR Lenses. It generates most of Snap’s revenue through advertising, particularly AR ads and Snap Ads.
User Metrics: Approximately 900 million MAUs and 453 million daily active users (DAUs) as of Q4 2024, with users spending an estimated 30 minutes daily (15 hours/month).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 900 million
Average time spent: 15 hours/month
NJT = 900 million × 15 = 13.5 billion user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Snapchat accounts for ~98% of Snap’s revenue ($5.26 billion of $5.36 billion in 2024). Assuming the company’s current market cap of $14.18 billion (June 2025) is primarily driven by Snapchat, we allocate ~98% of the market cap to this asset:
Value: $13.9 billion
Spectacles (AR Smart Glasses)
Description: Wearable sunglasses that capture Snaps and integrate with Snapchat, featuring GPS-powered AR lenses and hand-tracking capabilities. Launched in 2016, Spectacles have not gained widespread popularity but remain part of Snap’s AR vision.
User Metrics: Limited user data; estimated <1 million users with minimal time spent (assumed 1 hour/month for valuation purposes).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: ~1 million (conservative estimate)
Average time spent: 1 hour/month
NJT = 1 million × 1 = 1 million user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Spectacles contribute ~2% of revenue ($100 million in 2024). Using the same revenue-to-market-cap ratio as Snapchat, we estimate:
Value: $0.28 billion ($280 million)
Bitmoji (Personalized Avatar Platform)
Description: Acquired in 2016 for ~$64 million, Bitmoji allows users to create personalized avatars integrated into Snapchat and other platforms. It enhances user engagement but is not a direct revenue driver.
User Metrics: Assumed to align with Snapchat’s user base (900 million MAUs) but with lower engagement (estimated 2 hours/month).
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 900 million
Average time spent: 2 hours/month
NJT = 900 million × 2 = 1.8 billion user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: As a feature enhancing Snapchat’s ecosystem, we estimate its value based on acquisition cost adjusted for inflation and integration (5% annual growth since 2016):
Value: ~$100 million
Snap Camera (Desktop Application)
Description: Launched in 2018, Snap Camera allows users to apply Snapchat filters during video calls on platforms like Zoom. It has niche usage, primarily for streaming and virtual meetings.
User Metrics: Limited data; estimated 10 million MAUs with 1 hour/month usage.
NJT Calculation:
MAUs: 10 million
Average time spent: 1 hour/month
NJT = 10 million × 1 = 10 million user hours/month
Valuation Estimate: Minimal direct revenue; valued as a brand enhancer at ~1% of Snapchat’s value:
Value: $140 million
Zenly (Location-Sharing App, Discontinued)
Description: Acquired in 2017 for an undisclosed amount (estimated $200-$300 million), Zenly was shut down in 2023, but its location-sharing features were integrated into Snap Map.
User Metrics: No independent users post-shutdown; value absorbed into Snapchat.
NJT Calculation: Not applicable (integrated into Snapchat’s NJT).
Valuation Estimate: Residual value in Snap Map enhancements, estimated at acquisition cost:
Value: ~$250 million
Other Assets (Content Partnerships, Snapchat+, R&D)
Description: Includes partnerships with NBCUniversal, Disney, and others for Snapchat Originals, the Snapchat+ subscription service (7 million subscribers in March 2024), and ongoing AR R&D. Snapchat-Az These contribute to revenue and engagement but are not separately quantified.
User Metrics: Snapchat+ has ~7 million users; other assets are part of Snapchat’s ecosystem.
NJT Calculation: Included in Snapchat’s NJT (13.5 billion hours/month).
Valuation Estimate: Snapchat+ and content partnerships generate ~$100 million annually (estimated); R&D is a cost center. Valued at ~2% of market cap:
Value: $280 million
Total NJT and Market Cap Projection
Total NJT:
Snapchat: 13.5 billion hours/month
Bitmoji: 1.8 billion hours/month
Snap Camera: 10 million hours/month
Spectacles: 1 million hours/month
Total: ~15.311 billion hours/month
Market Share: 15.311 ÷ 285.6 ≈ 5.36% of the global pool (285.6 billion hours/month).
Current Market Cap (June 2025): $14.18 billion
Projected Market Cap Using NJT: Assuming the total market cap of 45 companies (~$10 trillion) is distributed proportionally to NJT shares (as in prior conversations), Snap’s 5.36% share yields:
Projected Market Cap: $536 billion
Comparison: Significantly higher than the current $14.18 billion, suggesting Snap is undervalued based on user engagement.
Breakdown of Valuation by Asset
Asset
NJT (Billion Hours/Month)
Estimated Value ($B)
% of Total Value
Snapchat
13.5
13.9
98.0%
Spectacles
0.001
0.28
2.0%
Bitmoji
1.8
0.10
0.7%
Snap Camera
0.01
0.14
1.0%
Zenly (integrated)
-
0.25
1.8%
Other (Snapchat+, R&D)
-
0.28
2.0%
Total
15.311
14.18
100%
Key Insights
Snapchat Dominance: Snapchat accounts for 98% of Snap’s value and 88% of its NJT, driven by its 900 million MAUs and strong engagement among younger users.
Undervaluation: The projected market cap of $536 billion (based on NJT share) is significantly higher than the current $14.18 billion, suggesting Snap’s user engagement is not fully reflected in its stock price, possibly due to ongoing losses ($1.4 billion in 2022).
AR and Innovation: Investments in AR (Spectacles, Lenses) and Snapchat+ position Snap for growth in 2025-2026, particularly as AR advertising and immersive experiences gain traction.
Challenges: Competition from TikTok and Instagram Reels, privacy changes (e.g., Apple’s iOS updates), and macroeconomic swings in ad spending could limit growth.
Conclusion
Snap Inc.’s primary asset, Snapchat, drives its value and user engagement, with a projected market cap of $536 billion based on NJT, far exceeding its current $14.18 billion. This suggests significant undervaluation, driven by its strong user base and AR innovations, despite profitability challenges. Spectacles, Bitmoji, and other assets play smaller roles but enhance Snap’s ecosystem, positioning it as a top contender for 2025-2026.
Key Citations
Snap Inc. - Wikipedia
Who Owns Snapchat? - Famoid
Snapchat Revenue and Usage Statistics (2025) - Business of Apps
Snap (SNAP) - Market Capitalization - CompaniesMarketCap
Snapchat - Wikipedia
SNAP Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Alpha Spread
Snap Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results - Snap Inc."
- GROK
$SNAP Technical Watch!Snapchat has just touched the 1.382 Fibonacci Time Cluster — a powerful historical turning point.
🔹 Price: $8.77
🔹 Key Support: $7.08
🔹 Time Target Hit: Reversal zone activated 🚨
A strong upside is expected from here.
History may be about to repeat. 🎯
SNAP BUY, BUY, BUYBUY SNAP at 5.5000, riding it back to 83.0000 to 89.0000 for Profit Target, Stop Loss is at 3.5000!
Snapchat Long?Technical Analysis:
- NYSE:SNAP has been very close to a very strong support zone on its Daily chart, offering a potentially good trade in my opinion.
Fundamental Analysis:
-In 2024, Snap reported an annual revenue of $5.36 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year. However, the company still posted a net loss of $698 million, an improvement from the $1.32 billion loss in 2023 . Adjusted EBITDA improved to $509 million in 2024, up from $162 million in 2023, indicating better operational efficiency.
-Quarterly results showed similar trends. For instance, in Q2 2024, revenue increased by 16% year-over-year to $1.24 billion, but the company still incurred a net loss of $249 million . In Q4 2024, Snap achieved a net income of $9 million, compared to a net loss of $248 million in the same quarter of the previous year .
Challenges:
-Snap faces intense competition in the digital advertising space from larger rivals like Meta Platforms (Facebook and Instagram) and TikTok. These competitors have more extensive user bases and more advanced ad-targeting capabilities, making it challenging for Snap to attract and retain advertisers .
Disclaimer:
This is just my personal opinion and not professional financial advice. Any investment decisions you make are entirely your responsibility. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The figures mentioned may be inaccurate, outdated, or subject to change — so please do your own research and due diligence before making any financial decisions. Investing involves risk, and any losses incurred are at your own risk.
4/30/25 - $snap - I'm in for a small 1% sub $84/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SNAP
I'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
SNAP is going down Market Context NYSE:SNAP
Current Price: $9.165
1-Month Move: +5.6% (from $8.68)
1-Year Move: -39.1% (from $15.05)
Year High/Low: $9.96/$7.16
Technicals:
RSI ~69.8 (near overbought)
Above 20-day MA, below 50/200-day MAs (short-term pop in a longer downtrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 75th percentile (high premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (bearish skew)
Max Pain: $8.00
High OI: $9.00 puts, $10.00 calls
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: SNAP averages 13.5% post-earnings, with a slight bearish bias (6/12 quarters down).
IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-print, so time your exit carefully.
Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bearish
Why? Overextended rally, high IV, Max Pain at $8.00, and “sell the news” risk.
Outlier: One model (Llama/Meta) sees bullish momentum from call activity, but it’s drowned out by bearish signals.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: SNAP
Direction: Put
Strike: $8.50 (premium $0.52, fits $0.30–$0.60 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.52
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-29)
Profit Target: $0.78 (~50% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.26 (50% loss)
Confidence: 65%
Expected Move: ±$1.24 (~13.5%)
Key Risks:
Positive earnings surprise (strong ad revenue or user growth).
Severe IV crush killing put value.
Broad market/tech rally lifting SNAP.
Upbeat guidance sparking a squeeze.
SNAP. LONG IDEA.I really like this level on Snap. I like this trade a lot because it has a clear level to target that I believe they will test at some point. My favorite longs are when we have a clear level that is begging to be tested. Hoping to get an entry in the next few months or year.
Watch this channel as we go into earnings Weekly Trading Channel in play.
SNAP is testing the bottom of the channel.
A rally from here?
Or maybe breaking down?
LONG SNAP: Ooohhh SNAP Buy @ $8.35 set target for 40% With the exlcusion of double bottoms and minor noise in the trend, snap has risen 5 times from $8.35 to +40% gains with the highest at 114%. It just dropped below $8.35. Buy of it rises above $8.35, set your target at 40% or move up your stops using higher highs/higher lows.
SNAP LONGEntered SNAP LONG.
Thesis
Break and retest of down trend line
Change of character
Looking for 2:1 RR
SnapChat Good Buying Zone IF You Miss Outrule of thumb rule NEVER follow any stock if you miss out.
I strongly believe Snapchat may re-test the 1h green zone which act as strong support level.
the stock has protentional as TikTok deal not going well.
(although i don't care about news only charts)
2/4/25 - $snap - r/r +ve, this one's always volatile2/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SNAP
r/r +ve, this one's always volatile
- every EPS season i like to see a week or two of pitches and then it's clear what the "theme is". it's a game i like to play
- while so many names have yet to report, anything that's pure software, somewhat consumer exposed and not a total loser (as in... it's a decent cap, still has engagement, generates cash etc. etc.) has tended to do pretty well
- admittedly i've always rated zuck more as a leader, but evan's still at the helm and now cheaper inference could be the unlock to these margins and/or offer something interesting for mgmt to chat about
- while it's not "pure" FCF (some SBC to be aware), 5% isn't bad for a name that's growing DD+ and is highly volatile. it's also a reasonably scarce internet property as it's sticky messaging vs. feed-only. i do think they have still to define the ultimate mission, which keeps me watching, always... for seemingly years (since 2017 i've followed this Q by Q)
- anyway
- this is bound to be up or down at least 10% in this tape, maybe more. calls offer better risk/reward given tape likes software per above, ad trends +ve should be a spray and pray benefit to most stonks (partially why i'm nibbling googl as well into results - go read that)
- a loss here will be a paper cut, but i think the setup at 6/10 is good enough for a small punt (5 bps into print for weeklies)
whatchu think anon? am i getting a lil too cray cray ahead of uber results tmr AM which is my bigger fish?
V
SnapChat | SNAP | Long at $11.55NYSE:SNAP - all depends on growth...
While I view this stock as risky into earnings (price gaps on the daily down to the $6.00 range...), SnapChat is still a highly relevant application among youth and is targeting older groups. The valuable data this company has must be staggering. NYSE:SNAP went from revenues of $1.7 billion in fiscal year 2019 to $5.1 through Q3 of 2024. While it is currently operating at a loss per share of -$0.58, the company is expected to return a positive EPS by 2027. Insider selling is currently high, however, and I truly would not be surprised if the stock dipped to fill the gaps (at least into the $8 zone). Regardless, my historical simple moving average lines are starting to flatten out and a change in course for 2025-2026 may be in its future - just stay cautious if the price dips to shake out weak hands.
At $11.55, NYSE:SNAP is in a personal buy zone with room for additional entries if weakness is ahead after earnings.
Targets:
$14.30
$17.00
$21.00
SNAP is range-bound and at support - I'll bite at 10.46The title kind of said it all here. Since I'm underexposed in this area and everything else that's decent and on sale today is in areas I already have exposure to, I'm taking a quick flip shot here.
It's already pulled back 16% from its most recent high, so I like my odds here. Historically, the algo I use for buy signals is 251-4 on SNAP with an average gain on this type of trade being .14% per day held, or about 4x the average daily return of SPY.
Earnings are soon and I hate trading near earnings, so this is designed to be a quick in and out trade. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Lots currently held:
Lot 1: 10.46
Buying snapI will be buying Snapchat simply because I see that in the fundamental analysis aspect of trading options. I see that TikTok is going to be banned so I decided to swing calls on Snapchat.
Buying snapI will be buying Snapchat simply because I see that in the fundamental analysis aspect of trading options. I see that TikTok is going to be banned so I decided to swing calls on Snapchat.
Major Price Movement Incoming for SNAP!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NYSE:SNAP trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on SNAPs price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
SNAP - trading in the rangeHi Traders
Snap Inc. is in an uptrend since August '24 and has a lot of upside potential. I would wait to see whether the upcoming price movement doesn't invalidate this uptrend, so the share price doesn't drop below $10. If this isn't the case, the uptrend will likely continue and the price will move to a higher high.
Also in terms of fundamentals, Snap Inc. is doing great. They reported strong third-quarter 2024 results and made considerable progress in diversifying revenues with Snapchat+ through new artificial intelligence-enabled features. They authorized a new share repurchase program of $500 million as well. Zack Investment Research expects 2024 net sales to rise 15.4% from 2023.
Enter this trade, after the price movement validates the continuation of the uptrend, between $10 and $11. Target a share price of $16.9 and put a stop loss at $9.6.
Snap target to $10.50 levelWe are observing a clear top down chart pattern, and it seems like a safe option to initiate a short trade with a potential target of $10.50.
This level is very important, as the stock may touch it and then rise up. Therefore, take profits on the short position once we reach the key level of $10.50.
SNAP - Bullish Multi-Time Frame Inverse Head & Shoulder PatternSummary: SNAP is forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders on multiple timeframes. This trade and target are largely based on the larger pattern (4hr time frame), however I think the pivot points and the 30min frame showing the slanted inverse H&S will provide for a high quality entry in the middle of the right shoulder so we don’t need to wait for a break of 13 for entries. Stop loss would be break below 12 support (or tighter SL depending on your risk tolerance).
P&L Assuming 12.6 Entry:
Gain: $1.3
Loss: $.6
Risk v Reward: 2:1
Possible Contracts:
13C for 1/3/2025 (currently $0.50)
12.5C for 1/3/2025 (currently $0.70)
Snapchat rocket primedAfter 2 years of consolidation we have a lot of fuel in the tank here. I think we see a quick shot up to $20 this month. NYSE:SNAP
