JLP trade ideas
Jubilee Metals (JBL) - Closing Long Idea at +156%10 Months later and +156% higher, my long idea is closed.
For those who know me and have closely followed my analysis over the last few years know that I make frequent use of the monthly chart in long term decisions. This was the case with JBL where my buy/long in October of last year (see attached) was based off the monthly chart, suggesting an extending time frame/holding period.
I've been having a look at monthlies quite a bit lately and I think re-introducing similar ideas would be be beneficial for clients with long (equity portfolio type) time. For more info on how I make use of, and interpret the monthly chart, get in touch today.
Published at: 135c
Last Close: 346c
$JSEJBL Looks Booked For More PainA rise from 112c to 417c in less than a year (+270%) is no mean fate, right? There was a corresponding big boom for SA recourses so isn't it always said that the incoming tide lifts all the boats? All is still good and well for those who bought in October '20 but will the profits hold, and is there a chance for some improvement at the current price?
• The purple lines indicate that, up to the top, there was a bearish divergence between the price and two shown indicators, and with that in my view always a chance for a change in direction.
• The long rising support line (red) was lost in middle of June '21, just revisited at the end of June '21 and is now completely out of touch with the price.
• The horizontal (red) line which was resistance then turned support was also temporarily lost once already and now for a second time.
• If the horizontal red line is not regained, then it seems the descending triangle (together with yellow line) comes into play with a subsequent break down according to textbooks.
Although the two indicators used here seem to be a bit oversold now, which could bring some relief, something like the weekly and monthly MACD's are very far from that and in my view Jubilee Metals ($JSEJBL) could continue to disappoint in future.
Jubilee Metals Jubilee Metals has seen steady increases since reporting their earnings back in November. Uptrend support line has been respected until post mid Jan. This was a heavy dip but had a decent rebound yesterday. Seeing the trajectory and formation of this dip, could be signs of a short term trend change. It would take a few more 8% + consistent daily movements to put the price back above support line. Taking a step back and having a broader view, Jubilee Metals has been in a gradual up trend for a few year now with trade volumes increase significantly from last year November.
Jubilee Metals Analysis: Incoming price correction (Dec 2020)I made reference to Jubilee Metals in my analysis titled 'Why Precious metals streaming and royalty companies make sense' as a "...speculative play in precious metals scrap recovery/conversion to sellable products".
This company is on my watchlist for so many reasons, chief of which are:
- From fundamental perspective, the Kabwe mining license (Zambia) extension in September 2020 is good for the share prices. This is the latest in a series of good news for the company since the restarting of operations in South Africa (April 2020).
- From the monthly chart, prices are at rock bottom from the alt time high, and starting to incrementally climb back up. This presents great opportunity for value-investors.
As at today, 27 Nov 2020, price has formed a structure level (8.50 - 8.80 zone). As reflected at this level, MACD cross-over is about to occur. Analysis of historical price behavior at such MACD level reveal the following:
- 06 Mar 2017 - 19 May 2017: 40.88% price drop
- 04 Aug 2015 - 10 Sep 2015: 49% price drop
- 14 Sep 2012 - 04 Dec 2012: 44.5% price drop
- 04 Feb 2004 - 25 Feb 2004: 20.59% price drop
- 23 Sep 2003 - 17 Oct 2003: 31.58% price drop
The average drop using the limited sample size above is 37.31% drop in price (based solely on random MACD behaviour from the level attained on 27 Nov 2020). Therefore, we can conservatively expect a price drop of around 20-30% going into December 2020. Furthermore, it is a sound assumption that investors might start to take some profits off the table as we approach December holiday season. This will further put pressure on the price of the stock. In my opinion, this a great opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines with cash to get in at a good price after the expected price drop.
Kijun Bounce!It looks like we are bouncing off the kijun zone (yellow). This zone was an important support back in 2017 and it seems to be still a good support zone. If my thesis is correct we should rally to around 89-90 and then drop again from the double top formation.
Entry 75
SL: 69
TP: 89 ( SSB Level)
RR: 2.33
Manage that risk appropriately!!
Jubilee Metals - Speculative longJubilee Metals has corrected lower in recent weeks to retest the breakout level of 2.80p and slightly below this at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The large reversal today is an encouraging sign which the shares set to close above the 10EMA. It’s also been noted that trading volume has been consistently above 50k for the past 90 days. It looks an interesting level to accumulate.
Target: 3.74p
Stop: 2.55p
3.35p / 3.53p target slice - 2.30p - 2.50p possible entry LONGWe might not have much of a retrace but I tend to go for the best entry possible, target looks conservative but always best to play it safe & slice never hurts.
Miton Group have been loading up on shares recently.
2.30p ideal entry if not below it at 2.05p so expose wisely.
Positives:
Great asset - Sable Zinc Kabwe Project - The Project targets to produce annually over 8 000 tonnes of zinc, 1 500 tonnes of vanadium and 15 000 tonnes of lead as it ramps up to full capacity over a 2-year period.
Cashed up as placing was done at 2.25p just a week or so ago
Negatives:
Be aware that there is a secured convertible loan note of GBP6.11 million attached to the project
Colin Bird is within the BoD
CLN's:
At any time that the loan is outstanding, ACAM may at its absolute discretion, by conversion notice, elect to convert the loan and all accrued but unpaid interest into 5 per cent unsecured convertible loan notes with a conversion price of 2.81 pence (ZAR 53.98 cents) ("Subscription Price") and a maturity date which falls on the third anniversary of the Closing Date.
During the loan period, Jubilee may notify ACAM of its intention to prepay the whole of the loan balance by prepayment notice. On the date of any prepayment Jubilee will issue warrants to ACAM to a value equal to 50 per cent of the amount of the loan and all accrued but unpaid interest thereon divided by the Subscription Price.
JLP (AIM) - JUBILEE PLATINUM PLCI don't usually trade AIM stocks, however, this one looks promising.
Price has been decling over the last few weeks after a massive drive up from 4.5 area to 7.5.
We've seen a decent outside day on Friday which could be the start of another drive north with a target of 7.5.
I will wait until the market opens, if price opens above last weeks high of 5.282 I will enter a long position with my stop at 4p. If price opens below I will look to enter around the 4.7 area.