Tesla’s Flat Deception: Bearish Wave Y in the Making?Tesla’s price structure has taken traders on quite a journey, and after peeling back the layers, it's clear that both bullish and bearish possibilities demanded attention — but only one holds more weight for now.
The first sign of life came at the March low, where price made a lower low (218.13 to 214.25), but RSI formed a higher low. This classic bullish divergence paved the way for a strong rally, confirming that Wave W had likely ended with a sharp zigzag, and Wave X was beginning to unfold. The bounce from 214.25 extended into a flat structure, which completed near 367.71 — a textbook ABC flat with the internal wave b forming a higher low at 223.17.
Initially, this structure looked like the beginning of a bullish impulse. The drop to 273.22 perfectly tagged the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and it was tempting to label it as Wave 2 of a new impulse. However, that bullish view began to crack when the bounce from 273.22 appeared to be a three-wave move, not a clean five-wave impulse. More importantly, Wave 4 of this move overlapped the price of Wave 1 — a key violation that rules out a typical impulse and instead suggests the move was a leading diagonal.
This view is supported by the RSI, which revealed bearish divergence as price climbed from 350.00 to 367.71 — price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, indicating fading momentum. That divergence, combined with the overlapping structure, tilts the probability toward a bearish scenario now unfolding as Wave Y.
If this view plays out, the decline from 367.71 may be the start of Wave a of Y in a final zigzag correction. The projected path would take Tesla lower in a 5-3-5 structure, with potential support near or below the March lows. The bearish view remains valid as long as price stays below 367.71 — the clear invalidation point. A move above that level would force a reevaluation and potentially revive the bullish case.
At this point, the market has spoken — and it's whispering bearish. The structure favors caution unless bulls reclaim momentum with strength.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
