Prediction to Earnings on TSLA (Closing gap slowly, then retest)TSLA is being tossed aside as all attention goes to NVDA and semiconductors. TSLA has been experiencing slow growth relative to the S and P. These are my thoughts on TSLA price action up to earnings in mid April. This is a prediction that is longer in time frame compared to my usual predictions, so take with a massive grain of salt. I'll update as more information comes up near earnings.
We see a channel formed starting from the previous earnings. With it's current growth speed, I expect filling the gap early March to the $210 range. I believe attention will continue into semiconductors, and bring TSLA along with them to this point. Since we hit new ATHs with the S and P and NVDA recently, this seems like a good estimate as to when we will see a market correction. Momentum into the S and P seems that it will carry it for a few weeks. The TSLA options market seems to align with this, since we have P/C ratios between 0.5 through 0.75.
After this upward leg, I expect investors to brace for earnings in mid-late March, early April. With no new exciting news coming from the EV space, I think investors will expect a similar results to the previous earnings report. This is where we may begin seeing price action back towards previous lows, potentially retesting $185 to $190 prior to earnings.
Post earnings: It's easy to think we will have a similar result as the previous quarter, since we don't have news, but the EV sector is looking to slash jobs and cut costs. This may help TSLA keep a larger margin that may potentially be lost by Tesla car price cuts. With more information leading up to earnings we may be able to refine this.
As always, significant market news can change things to unpredictable places, so I'll be keeping an eye out and updating.