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DOLLARINDEX trade ideas

USD: Fading bearish momentumOur baseline view for this week has been that the dollar correction has run its course, and we still favour chasing a USD rebound against other G10 currencies. There is admittedly some residual room for a risk-on/dollar-off move once a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal is agreed, but markets are largely pricing it in at this stage and there are no guarantees for now that it will allow to price out longer-run geopolitical risk. Today, markets will remain focused on any developments on the US-Russia bilateral talks on Ukraine, but barring a major breakthrough, the optimistic push and relative upbeat risk sentiment may stall or fade in the next couple of days and the dollar can continue to recover some ground. Also on the positioning side, there is some evidence that the dollar longs are slightly less stretched. CFTC USD positioning versus G10 currencies excluding SEK and NOK (which are not reported) has inched back lower to a seven-week low, albeit remaining above +20% of open interest. Macro developments will likely play a secondary role this week, with the exception of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes. Today’s Empire Manufacturing index and TIC flows out of the US should have limited market impact.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by AccuTrade2000
#USDX 4HUSDX (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is forming a flag pattern, which is generally considered a continuation signal. This indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase after a strong move, and a breakout could lead to further bullish momentum. Forecast: A buy opportunity may arise if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the flag pattern, confirming bullish strength. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a breakout above the flag pattern with strong volume. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the recent low to manage risk. - Take Profit: Target the next key resistance levels based on previous price action. Market Sentiment: The flag pattern suggests that the market is pausing before continuing its upward move. Waiting for a confirmed breakout will help align with the prevailing trend and avoid false signals.
VANTAGE:USDXLong
by PIPSFIGHTER
DXY Is Bearish! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 7h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 106.448. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 105.539 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
DXY Long On the weekly Time Frame the DXY has broken above a previous weekly resistance level (wPb). Price has since Re-Tested this level and seems to be finding Support. Last weeks candle (week 6) printed what I believe, has proven to be a strong reversal candle (with Bullish Divergence), indicating the bearish correction (Re-Test of wPb) is about to reverse Long. In light of this I'll be looking for a reason to enter Long on the 4h Time Frame, inside the wPb Zone & aiming for the w6 High.
TVC:DXYLong
by EverGlowTrading
Stumbling DXY ahead of Trump speech and FOMC minutesIt is make or break time for my ideas on the DXY after the DXY failed to hold levels above the 50-day MA at 108. The critical support between 107.2 and 107.5 is currently being tested after the DXY closed the week 1.2% weaker at 106.8 despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January. The DXY however pulled back sharply on Thursday off the back of a weaker than expected initial jobless claims report and a stronger than expected PPI print of 3.5% yoy. The downward momentum gained further traction after core retail sales completely missed expectations, contracting 0.4% mom in January. If the DXY does not close this week above the support at 107.2 I’ll have to invalidate my series of ideas calling for a move to 112.2. A break below my support range mentioned above will allow the DXY to slide all the way onto the support of the 38.2% FIbo retracement at 105.4 and the 200-day MA currently at 104.9. I’m not ready to invalidate the idea just yet since we may be looking at a bear trap on the DXY but I may have to get back to the drawing board after this week’s trading.
TVC:DXY
by Goose96
1
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Pivot: 107.51 1st Support: 105.72 1st Resistance: 109.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
2
Dollar Index - Trump & TariffsWith a lot of fundamental conflicts at play, one being the tariffs war on China, EU, Mexico and Canada (we don’t know yet if any more countries will be affected), we are seeing the result in price action. We are trading in a range from 110.176 - 106.969 and so far, Dollar has managed to support the weekly BISI @ the 107.500 region but also trade up to and reject the 109.770 HTF PD array. Ultimately, it will be fundamental news that will grant dollar the necessary volatility to run to liquidity pools. My guess, to the downside
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Bullish Indicators: 1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment. 2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market. 3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion. 4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position. Bearish Indicators: 1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy. 2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation. 3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures. 4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness. 5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain. 6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending. Overall Sentiment: Bearish Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall. SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) ) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1. DXY 2. S&P500 3. NAS100 4. GOLD
TVC:DXYShort
by Austin_Palmer
DXY Long into Zero Issuance WindowThe DXY was hammered when bad economic data came in last week. It also took a hit when a 30-year bond auction rallied the long bond, and caused yields to drop. This move of dropping also occurred as the Treasury issued bills almost every day of the month, but now there's a window where no bonds will be auctioned until Tuesday. The chart structure shows a falling wedge consolidation which bounced from the bottom, and this is a key level which resulted in a pivot going back to November 2023. If DXY can solidify a support where there used to be resistance, this could add confidence to a further swing upward.
TVC:DXYLong
by DarklyEnergized