DXY Bearish to 85-90The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart:
A zigzag corrective pattern is identified.
Resistance levels at 113 and an inverse bearish level at 115 are highlighted.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA 9) and Simple Moving Average (SMA 50) are displayed.
Elliott Wave analysis appears to be used, indicating a possible downward correction.
A bearish scenario targeting around 90 in the long term is projected.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart:
A weakening dollar will boost growth in the export sector. I believe this will occur during President Trump's term.
DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
$DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZTVC:DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZ
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! The U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) sits at 106.47 today—tariffs and Fed vibes keep it humming 📈🔥. Down a hair from 106.60—let’s unpack this greenback glow! 🚀
(2/9) – YEARLY SURGE
• 2024 Run: From 100.16 to 107+ by Dec 💥
• Today: 106.47—off 0.12% from yesterday 📊
• Driver: Trump tariffs juice inflation fears
TVC:DXY ’s got grit—2025’s off to a zesty start!
(3/9) – BIG BOOSTERS
• Tariffs: Auto, chip threats—dollar darling 🌍
• Fed: Slow cuts—rates outshine abroad 🚗
• Crypto Nod: Pro- AMEX:USD admin vibes 🌟
Greenback’s flexing—policy packs a punch!
(4/9) – MARKET PULSE
• Vs. Peers: Outpaces euro, yen—rate gaps shine 📈
• X Chatter: 107 peak, post-swearing dip?
• Edge: U.S. growth trumps global woes 🌍
TVC:DXY ’s steady—king of the currency hill?
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Deficits: Fiscal bloat looms long-term ⚠️
• Geo-Tension: Wars nudge safe-haven bets 🏛️
• Fed Pivot: Faster cuts could dim shine 📉
Tough tailwinds—can TVC:DXY dodge the drag?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Tariffs: Inflation lift—dollar darling 🌟
• Rates: Fed’s edge over ECB, BOJ 🔍
• Haven: Chaos loves $ USD—rock solid 🚦
TVC:DXY ’s got muscle—global star!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Debt piles—future wobble? 💸
• Opportunities: Tariff hikes zap rivals 🌍
Can TVC:DXY keep the crown or stumble?
(8/9) – TVC:DXY at 106.47—what’s your vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—108+ by spring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Holds steady, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Dips below 100 soon.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
TVC:DXY ’s 106.47 glow—tariffs, Fed, and grit shine 🌍🪙. Deficits lurk, but strength rules—bull or bust?
Dollar Index (DXY): Pullback From Resistance
I think we may see a local bearish continuation after a test
of a key daily/intraday resistance.
A local Change of Character on an hourly clearly shows the strength of the sellers.
The index may retrace at least to 106.53
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Republican bear cycle / QELong-term sell-off in expectation of the Trump administration's projected monetary policies. In addition, on a technical aspect, the inefficiencies of the last DXY drop in Nov. 2022 are filled. The entry is given by the change in the daily structure after filling the aforementioned inefficiency. The target is looking for liquidity at the low of Jul. 23', coinciding at the 61.8 fibo of the bullish momentum of the Democratic Biden administration.
Is it time to buy the US dollar?With US inflation rising, the US economy performing well, and rates higher for longer (well, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed hike rates by the end of 2025), the USD continues to be an obvious buy.
The TVC:DXY is currently testing key horizontal support (previously resistance) and is nearing the weekly moving averages. This could be the time to buy the dollar.
I'm personally looking to short OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD and buy OANDA:USDCAD and OANDA:USDCHF
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.618.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.382.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 108.500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 105.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
💠Fundamental Analysis
Weakening US Economy: The US economy's growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
Falling Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar.
💠Macroeconomic Analysis
The US economy's growth, inflation rates, and employment numbers influence the dollar's strength.
Global economic trends, such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, also impact the dollar's value.
💠COT Data Analysis
Net Short Positions: Institutional traders and large banks have increased their net short positions in the DXY Dollar Index, indicating a bearish sentiment.
COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.2, indicating a bearish trend.
💠Market Sentimental Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: 55% of client accounts are short on this market, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Option Skew: The 25-delta put option skew has increased to 15, indicating a bearish sentiment.
💠Positioning Data Analysis
Institutional Traders: Institutional traders and large banks are positioning themselves for a bearish trend, with some predicting a decline to 105.50.
Corporate Traders: Corporate traders are also monitoring the index's performance, considering factors like interest rates and global economic trends.
💠Overall Outlook
Bearish Trend: The DXY Dollar Index is experiencing a bearish trend, with a potential decline to 105.50.
Key Support Levels: 106.57, 105.50.
💠Technical Analysis
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen to 40, indicating oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band breakout indicates a bearish trend.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
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U.S. Dollar IndexU.S. Dollar Index - Daily
Dear traders,
I sincerely apologize for my absence during this time; I have lost my father, who has passed away. I have not been well over the past two weeks, and I regret not being able to provide an analysis.
DXY Chart Update
I have updated the DXY chart and present it to you now. We know that in smart money analysis, it shows us the primary market trend structure, and by mapping the daily structure, it indicates that this chart is in an upward trend. Currently, we are looking for suitable areas to buy the dollar.
Confirmation of Major High and Market Movements
After confirming the major high with the price reaching the first standard pullback, which I indicated on the chart with IDM, and ultimately reaching the Decisional Order Block, we experienced a good upward move together with a proper buy. However, unfortunately, our major high was not broken, and the market pursued a downward phase towards the IFC Candles.
Current Status and Key Levels
Now, at the beginning of this week, with the price reaching this important IFC block and receiving confirmation in the 4-hour timeframe, we can set our target at the important resistance level of 109.533, which I have designated as my first target. Additionally, there is a 4-hour resistance at the price of 107.182 that should be closely monitored.
Based on this dollar chart, this week we can look to sell euros, pounds, Australian dollars, and New Zealand dollars while buying Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, and Swiss francs. However, it is essential that we also examine other charts and find entry points on those charts as well. My focus this week is on buying the dollar and selling other currencies. I will be updating the entry points for the other charts today and sharing them in my channel.
Fundamental News
In his latest speech, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized the continuation of contractionary policies to control inflation and mentioned the ongoing strengthening of the dollar. He highlighted positive signs in the U.S. economic growth, which increases the likelihood of a rise in the dollar's value this week.
Source: Jerome Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve meeting, February 2025.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
My model say DXY will retrace smallI just saw a possibility of a small retracement in DXY. You can take it as a trade advise or wait for an opportunity to sell higher.
I'm still overall bearish, till around year end, it's just that I saw a possibility of a retracement. I will update you guys when I'm sure it will sell again.
I will like for this move to play out today or next and set the tone for the next leg down.
This is counter trend, trade wisely