Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 105.44
1st Resistance: 108.67
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DOLLARINDEX trade ideas
DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.
Cycle pivot support lines 106.2, 105.7 as starting entries
The main volume is based on building up around 105.36.
This strategy is a very bold move based on the long-term view that DXY will necessarily remain unexpectedly strong in the Trump2.0 tariff trade.
Using a break of 0.618 A as a stop loss, we can continue to add dollar longs to 104.5 below the previous annual pivot point of 105.7
DXY - Fed’s Rate Cut Gamble Clashes With ECB Hawkish HoldSuccessful delivery this week with daily sell stops taken out @ 106.566 as expected. This caused risk on conditions for FX pairs; GBPUSD and EURUSD.
The heaviness to the downside indicates continuation to the downside.
106.111 - 105.440 is a price region i am scoping
DXY - Bearish.Similar thesis to my NASDAQ analysis, with the DXY in a current bear trend, with key levels unmitigated below, and very close to current price action. Overall, expecting a decline in the price of the DXY over the next weeks sessions, mainly to hunt liquidity below to then continue the monthly Bullish bias and trend.
Align it with the current US economic proceedings, and a declining dollar makes sense for a few more weeks until thing calm down with tariffs etc. etc.
Expecting assets with a positive correlation to the dollar to also correlate any bearish moves in the DXY, with inverse assets such as gold benefitting.
Mahalo.
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week
My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower.
While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks.
Plan of Action:
📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action.
📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level.
However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend.
With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
DXY at a Deciding PointThe DXY has a slight bounce from the fib 0.786 golden pocket, but also at a neutral level of 107.158. I have plotted a trend channel from the higher timeframe which is marked by the dotted line.
At this point, I would take a wait-and-see approach in the coming weeks until a clear direction takes place.
USD Bulls on the RopesThe US dollar (USD) – per the US Dollar Index – is on track to end February on the ropes following January’s monthly indecision candle at the resistance of 109.33. I believe USD bears have space to drive towards a ‘local’ descending support around 105.40ish, extended from the high of 107.35.
Similarly, the daily timeframe demonstrates scope for sellers to strengthen their grip. Last week witnessed the Index reject resistance at 107.05, drawing focus towards an ‘alternate’ AB=CD from 105.77 (the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio). For those unfamiliar with Harmonic trading, an alternate AB=CD is simply an extended equal AB=CD formation using either 1.272% or 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratios. Interestingly, not only does the alternate AB=CD pattern share chart space with daily support at 105.62, but these daily levels are located just north of the monthly timeframe’s descending support line underlined above. Consequently, although there is room for bears to take control in the short to medium term, the combination of the monthly and daily support levels could entice profit-taking and encourage fresh long positions into the market, should we reach said area.
Given monthly and daily charts echoing a bearish vibe, I will primarily focus on short-term resistance levels this week. One standout area of H1 resistance is between 107.24 and 107.14, made up of two trendline resistance lines (drawn from 109.88 and 106.57), a horizontal resistance level and two Fibonacci retracement ratios (78.6% and 38.2%). What is also interesting from a technical perspective is that the above-noted H1 resistance zone converges closely with daily resistance mentioned above at 107.05, therefore should the H1 resistance area be tested, the fact daily resistance is also present could add weight to a bearish showing. Should we fail to reach as high as the H1 zone, my next base case scenario is to watch local H1 supports to cede ground to trigger possible selling opportunities: the 106.43 low, for example.
DXY Week of 23 Feb 25: BullishFollowing the previous post, 24 Feb 25 may be the start of the bullish rally for DXY.
Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation pattern
Falling Wedge hints bullish reversal
Liquidity Zone established
Plan to Long DXY and target for recent high, and stop loss at recent low. About 2.45 Reward:Risk Ratio
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): One More Bearish Movement
Dollar Index keeps updating the lows on a daily.
With a strong bearish movement, the price violated a key horizontal support yesterday.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue falling.
Next support - 106.15
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis1. Long-Term Uptrend & Ascending Channel
The DXY has been respecting a well-established ascending channel for over two decades, with price action bouncing between the upper and lower trendlines. This suggests a macro bullish structure, despite periodic corrections.
2. Wave Structure for Clarity
The green waves highlight significant price swings within the trend.
These waves illustrate market cycles of expansion and correction, showing how DXY has moved through phases of strength and retracement.
The current movement suggests a similar pattern is playing out, with a likely correction before the next potential leg higher.
3. Key Price Levels
Resistance at ~113.07: A major historical level where the index has faced selling pressure.
Support Zone (~100-102): The blue area represents a critical support region that has acted as a demand zone in previous corrections.
Lower Trendline (~98): If selling pressure continues, the lower boundary of the channel (~98) could act as the final line of support before a potential reversal.
4. Potential Market Scenario
The price has recently rejected the upper region and is heading toward support.
If the 102-100 range holds, a bounce toward the upper trendline (~113) is likely.
If broken, the next target would be the lower channel support (~98) before a possible long-term recovery.