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DOLLARINDEX trade ideas

Dollar Index - Trump & TariffsWith a lot of fundamental conflicts at play, one being the tariffs war on China, EU, Mexico and Canada (we don’t know yet if any more countries will be affected), we are seeing the result in price action. We are trading in a range from 110.176 - 106.969 and so far, Dollar has managed to support the weekly BISI @ the 107.500 region but also trade up to and reject the 109.770 HTF PD array. Ultimately, it will be fundamental news that will grant dollar the necessary volatility to run to liquidity pools. My guess, to the downside
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Bullish Indicators: 1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment. 2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market. 3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion. 4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position. Bearish Indicators: 1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy. 2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation. 3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures. 4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness. 5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain. 6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending. Overall Sentiment: Bearish Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall. SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) ) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1. DXY 2. S&P500 3. NAS100 4. GOLD
TVC:DXYShort
by Austin_Palmer
DXY Long into Zero Issuance WindowThe DXY was hammered when bad economic data came in last week. It also took a hit when a 30-year bond auction rallied the long bond, and caused yields to drop. This move of dropping also occurred as the Treasury issued bills almost every day of the month, but now there's a window where no bonds will be auctioned until Tuesday. The chart structure shows a falling wedge consolidation which bounced from the bottom, and this is a key level which resulted in a pivot going back to November 2023. If DXY can solidify a support where there used to be resistance, this could add confidence to a further swing upward.
TVC:DXYLong
by DarklyEnergized
DXY Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis DXY Feb 10 to 14 weeks analysis Weekly Price has dropped past the .50 level, seeking key sell stops, completing its rebalance of a BISI from dec. Fridays candle body breaks institutional structure order flow. Note how on Thursday prices reaction on the .50 level in the current trading range and energetically displaces to below the .618 and how Friday continues that trend to the .70 level. Note how Price spent a lot of time at the 50 on this range and has swept sell stops. Note that Price is in a double discount on the daily and hourly. Note how Price has predominately working the lower half of the HFT FVG since Dec 18. Note that Price has taken all sell stops but the two remaining since Dec 6 low. Feb 17 to 21 ideas This week we could see price retraces to rebalance Thursdays inefficiently delivered price as a shot term idea. There could be a raid on stops at the noted equal highs before bearing lower, as an idea for the week. However if we are in fact bearing it will gravitate to the Daily BISI and noted sell stops-short and long term targets. This week I want to focus on what liquidity is taken and when. TIME AND PRICE. I have been studying before the market and making a projection and EXCEPTING it to play out. That strategy while informative is creating a habit of inflexibility to me not being dynamic and flexible. I want to be adaptable to what the tape is reading and create a day plan from there.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 17-21This is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD CAD, USDCAD CHF, USDCHF JPY, USDJPY The USD Index ran the previous weekly low Friday, capping off another bearish week. With the USD weakening on mixed fundamental news, its currency counterparts are taking advantage of the opportunity to outperform the USD. Look for the majors to potentially move higher vs the USD this week. Be mindful there is a lot of red folder news items coming up for the week ahead, to include FOMC on Wednesday. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies: the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF)1. Created in 1973 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the DXY serves as a benchmark for evaluating the USD's performance The DXY is a reliable gauge for measuring the strength of the U.S. dollar. An increasing DXY value indicates a strengthening U.S. dollar against other currencies in the index, while a decreasing value suggests a weakening U.S. dollar. just for educational purpose,do your own research..
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
2
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons. - Tariffs speculation - Inflation data higher than expected - US M2 money supply increase - US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
TVC:DXYShort
by UCHE9121
2
[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks: --- 1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength. --- 2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies. --- 3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds. Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter. --- Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism. --- This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by KenzoYagai