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DOLLARINDEX trade ideas

DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal Jan 19 Price is delivering to a discount on the Previous weeks range in a consolidation pattern since Wednesday. Cool to see Price react at the event horizon level-marked in RED DOTTED LINE, as well as the NWOG reactions. By Friday Price broke the equal highs and poked above the 50%. For the week I suspect Price will seek higher prices. Target is the clean equal highs and the 15M FVG to rebalance for the week ahead delivery. Jan 20 ideas My analysis leads me to expect that Price is delivering to Premium from Fridays range and Price should seek lower prices in Asia and in London to take the equal lows/15M FVG before seeking higher Prices. Trump is going into office tomorrow be nimble because Price is on the 50% and Price could bull rally tomorrow to.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal Jan19 Weekly Analysis Price is delivering to a premium on the M, W and daily. Price is rebalancing a Monthly SIBI and wicked up to the .70 HTF level. Price did seek lower prices last week rebalancing a daily FVG from Jan 8. and inefficient delivered price-volume imbalance from Jan 9. Friday Price bounced off the .618 and taking buy side liquidity, while creating clean equal lows. Trump takes to office Monday. WEF orange folder all week. Friday heavy news day.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Today, I want to share my personal view on the Dollar Index (DXY) with you. Based on what I see on the chart, I expect the Dollar Index (DXY) to reach the resistance zone of 110.668 to 110.877 . After a small pullback, I anticipate it will start its bullish movement upwards. If the 107.750 level breaks downward and consolidates on the 1H timeframe, a further decline could follow. 📈 Expectation: After a minor pullback, the DXY is likely to initiate a bullish movement and continue its upward trend. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 110.668 - 110.877 💬 What’s your view on the Dollar Index this week? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
TVC:DXYLong
by PouyanTradeFX
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, yen, and pound. It serves as a key indicator of the dollar’s strength in global markets. Short-term movements in the DXY are influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation data, and global economic conditions. Higher interest rates in the U.S. generally strengthen the dollar, while lower rates can weaken it. Traders use the DXY to gauge market trends, hedge currency risks, and make investment decisions. Shorting the DXY means betting on a weaker U.S. dollar, often through forex trading or inverse ETFs.
TVC:DXYShort
by HavalMamar
1
DXY - OVERBOUGHT = Risk On in Near Term = GainsThe DXY RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. Don't need to over think this one. I'm looking for a mean reversion. On average, it appears a DXY pull back is +/-12%. $102-$98 is the level I'm watching for the short/medium term for the DXY. I imagine it strengthens again in the future, but it's offside at the current moment. Stonks, BTC, & Crypto are looking prime for a risk on environment & substantial gains - for at least the short to medium term - if the DXY sells off. Either way, it's looking like the DXY will need to mean revert in the near term. BULLISH.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitInfo12
DXY Tests Resistance at $109.53: Signs of Downward PressureTVC:DXY DXY Tests Fractal Resistance at $109.53 Signs of Downward Pressure and Potential Pullback The DXY has recently tested a crucial resistance at $109.53 but is now showing signs of downward pressure. In this post, we’ll break down the key technical factors indicating the possibility of a corrective move and what traders should watch for in the coming days. Several technical factors now point toward the possibility of a pullback or bearish movement in the DXY: 1. Bearish Divergence Signals Bearish divergence occurs when the price hits new highs while momentum indicators start to weaken. In the case of the DXY, we are seeing this type of divergence, suggesting that buying pressure is diminishing. This could be a signal that the uptrend is losing momentum. 2. 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level at $108.98 The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is widely considered one of the most important levels in technical analysis, and currently, it is acting as a key resistance zone at $108.98. This level plays a critical role in determining whether the DXY will maintain its upward momentum or begin a correction. As it stands, a failure to break above this level could signal the start of a deeper pullback. 3. Completion of the Bearish Crab Pattern at $109.85 The DXY has recently completed a bearish crab pattern at $109.85, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This pattern typically signals that the market has exhausted its upward movement, and a pullback/reversal could be imminent. 4. Completion of the Elliott Wave Structure: Wave 5 Equals Wave 1 Elliott Wave analysis also suggests a potential end to the uptrend. The DXY has recently completed a five-wave structure to the upside, where Wave 5 equals Wave 1, indicating that the rally may have run its course. This increases the likelihood of a corrective phase. What to Watch For: Potential Pullbacks Given the current technical setup, traders should closely monitor the following key levels for signs of a pullback: $109.53: The fractal resistance level recently tested. $108.98: The major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as a potential element of resistance. $109.85: The completion point of the bearish crab pattern, a crucial level for confirming a reversal. If the DXY begins to break below these levels, we could see further downside movement, with the potential for a deeper correction. Happy Trading, André Cardoso
TVC:DXYShort
by Andre_Cardoso
Trump’s Inauguration: What Lies Ahead?Capping a decisively sweeping victory on 5 November 2024 in what many called a ‘historic comeback’, Republican Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States (US) on Monday at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST). This marks his second run for the highest office. The ceremony is set to take place at the Capitol building. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to oversee Trump's oath of office, followed by an inaugural address that the incoming President himself has said will be a message about ‘unity’ – very different from his 2017 speech that portrayed the country as ‘American carnage’. Outgoing president Democrat Joe Biden has said he will attend the ceremony, a courtesy not extended by Trump for the former’s inauguration four years ago. Additionally, and in a break from tradition, world leaders have been invited to the ceremony for the first time, including China's President Xi Jinping. Although he will not be attending, Vice President Han Zheng will do so in his place. In addition to world leaders, several influential figures are expected to attend. Elon Musk confirmed his attendance – who, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, was recently nominated to head up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). We can also expect Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, to be present. What Can We Expect from Trump? Trump has assured the world of a hard-hitting approach towards illegal immigration, which is anticipated to include plans for the mass deportation of undocumented migrants. He stated he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’. Trade tariffs are another key policy that the global economy can expect, as he is anticipated to increase the protectionist policies his administration introduced in the first term. About a year ago, Trump noted that ‘except for day 1’, he would not be a ‘Dictator’; this, as you would expect, sparked outrage from critics. However, if we know anything about Trump, he has a long – some would say ‘colourful’ – history of making incendiary statements that trigger both support and anger as well as generate a torrent of headlines. Undoubtedly, the first 24 to 48 hours of the Trump administration will be eventful and likely elevate volatility across key asset classes, such as Currencies, Bonds, Stocks, and Commodities. The new government is expected to sign over 100 executive orders on day one. Although not usually as many orders, this is a regular practice for incoming Presidents as part of the transition process. I expect Trump to make a statement on his first day in office that may make ‘a few heads spin’. We will likely observe executive orders directed at a crackdown on the US-Mexico border, along with orders focussing on issues such as energy, trade, and actions affecting Federal workers. Additionally, he is expected to roll back any executive orders initiated by the Biden administration that have not yet been finalised. Markets Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration I do not expect to see much price action ahead of Trump’s big day; however, technically speaking, US dollar (USD) bulls remain in control. According to the US Dollar Index, the USD is on track to finish the week moderately lower, snapping a six-week winning streak. The Team and I have been banging the drum about monthly resistance on the US Dollar Index at 109.33 for a while now. This level entered the fray following a three-month rally just north of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA), currently trading at 101.12. With the Relative Strength Index progressing above the 50.00 centreline (positive momentum), this could eventually nudge the USD beyond current resistance towards the 2022 high of 114.78. As seen from the daily chart of the US Dollar Index, the 200- and 50-day SMAs (at 104.68 and 107.32, respectively) are pointing to the upside; you will also note that price action is comfortable north of both dynamic values and that a Golden Cross (50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA) developed in late 2024 – all of which are considered bullish indications. Current price action is shaking hands with resistance at 109.29 (Quasimodo resistance), and sellers have displayed limited enthusiasm as of writing. Absorbing willing offers here pave the way towards another layer of neighbouring resistance at 110.78 (another Quasimodo resistance), followed by the 2022 pinnacle at 114.78, as mentioned above.
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
7
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking