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DOLLARINDEX trade ideas

Dollar Testing The Channel Support It’s already Friday and the 4th of July, so US holidays are here, which means we could see thinner trading conditions later today. Still, the overall tone remains risk-on since yesterday, supported by better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data and an ISM services reading at 50.8—still in expansion territory. So, there’s some optimism in the market, and this could continue if we get a positive outcome on the tariff front ahead of the July 9th deadline. On the back of strong economic data, US yields are moving higher, but the Dollar Index is trying to come lower. It’s currently retesting the lower trendline of a corrective channel—likely due to the strong rally in US stock indexes, which are keeping the dollar under pressure. On the daily chart, the Dollar Index still looks like it could head to new lows, but that move may not come today if holiday conditions slow down the market. We might have to wait until next week for a clearer breakout. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
Why I haven't posted this week:Hey all, So, for those of you who watches my videos and market commentary will have noticed that I haven't posted anything this week, event though there were some awesome opportunities to highlight and discuss. The reason for this is because I am currently conducting work training and was unable to record, however, rest assured that I'll be back next week to break down these markets with you and take advantage of the opportunities lining up. Up until then keep well and bye for now
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
The Bessent Effect Explained: Weaken the Dollar The Bessent Effect Explained: Weaken the Dollar There’s no coincidence that the U.S. dollar has had its worst first half of the year since the dawn of free-floating currencies in the 1970s. And if anyone knows how currencies tick — or unravel — it’s Scott Bessent, the man who once stood behind George Soros during the legendary short of the British pound in 1992. Now, three decades later, Bessent sits at the helm of the most powerful economy in the world, steering the U.S. Treasury through a historic moment: where America is trying to boost exports, undercut foreign currency manipulation, and lighten the crushing weight of debt — all while keeping inflation from boiling over. Of course, no Treasury Secretary will ever say “we want a weaker dollar”, but if one wanted to do it strategically, they'd need to be part economist, part hedge fund manager and part illusionist. Enter: The Bessent Effect. 📊 Charting the Decline • After Election Day (BLUE LINE), the DXY marched upward, peaking near 109 — a reflection of market optimism or a dash of geopolitical anxiety. • By Inauguration Day (REDLINE), that trend began to unwind. Investors started to squint at the fiscal roadmap and didn't love what they saw. ________________________________________ Debt Strategy Rhetoric: PURPLE LINE In early February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the U.S. debt issuance strategy. While he openly criticized his predecessor’s reliance on short-term debt, his first major move was paradoxical: he continued that very approach, opting to maintain a heavy focus on short-term issuance while holding off on extending maturities. This subtle decision screamed one thing for markets: rollover risk. What if rates stay high? What if inflation persists? What if buyers disappear? Result? The dollar started sliding faster. ________________________________________ Liberation Day: YELLOW LINE On April 2, “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. Potential retaliation from China and Mexico, and now you've got cross-border chaos. Trade wars spook global markets, slash demand for U.S. assets, and drive capital into gold and foreign currencies. The dollar’s dominance doesn’t vanish overnight — but the cracks begin to show. ________________________________________ Easing of SLR Announced: PINK LINE On May 23, just when the DXY needed a break, Bessent went on Bloomberg and said, “We are very close to moving” on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). Translation? Banks may soon face eased capital rules, making it easier for them to buy Treasuries. Markets took it as regulatory backdoor stimulus — a shadowy workaround to support Treasury demand without triggering money printers. But it also raised fears about systemic risk, inflation, and policy overreach. The DXY barely blinked before continuing its methodical march lower. ________________________________________ But What If... What if Bessent’s moves aren’t missteps, but part of a calculated devaluation strategy? A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive, revives domestic manufacturing, and reshapes global trade dynamics. By subtly bending the rules (instead of breaking them), Bessent may be re-engineering the dollar's role—less as a global anchor, more as a tool for national advantage. By easing the SLR, he may have discovered a subtle way to bring down the long end of the yield curve. If it’s not currency destruction. Maybe it’s precision macro strategy? ________________________________________ What’s Next? Sure, the DXY might bounce a little — even bad news needs a break. But what could drive it even lower? How about the loss of Federal Reserve independence? Luckily, that’d only happen if there were whispers of a “shadow Fed chair” waiting in the wings. But that’s just conspiracy talk... right? Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Trajan2080
U.S. dollar index DXY analysis- daily time frame ✅ U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis — Daily Timeframe 👤 A TVC:DXY trader’s perspective: When I look at this chart, several key points immediately stand out: 1️⃣ Long-Term Trend On the weekly and daily timeframe, the major trend has turned bearish after peaking around 114. We see a clear series of lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend. The sharp rally from 89 to 114 in the past was a strong impulsive move, which is now undergoing a deep correction. Currently, price is hovering around a major historical support near 96. 2️⃣ Key Support Zone The current price near 96.7 is sitting right at a significant support area that has triggered considerable buying interest in the past. If this support decisively breaks, the green zone marked as DD (around 93–95) represents a strong long-term demand zone and will likely be the next liquidity target for buyers. 3️⃣ Resistance (Supply Zones) The four red-marked 4HR zones between 97 and 101.9 clearly show significant supply zones where sellers have stepped in on lower timeframes. Should the price attempt a bounce from current levels, these resistance areas may act as a strong barrier to further upside. 4️⃣ Price Structure and Liquidity Looking more closely, the market seems to be moving from a consolidation phase toward lower support liquidity. That means there is a high probability of a liquidity grab toward the 93–95 area before a potential fresh bullish leg. At higher levels, unless the price can break and hold above 98 and then 100, we cannot confirm a trend reversal. 🔹 Summary ✅ Overall downtrend remains dominant ✅ 96–97 is a critical support zone ✅ A break below this support targets 93–95 ✅ Trend reversal only possible with a confirmed break and hold above 98, and then 100–101 ✅ The 4HR resistance zones (97–101) are strong hurdles for any bullish retracement ✅ As long as price remains below 98, any rally is likely just a corrective move ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. All trading decisions are solely your own responsibility.
TVC:DXY
by gholamali8905
DXY Long-Term Technical Outlook: Channel Structure, Pullbacks & ## **DXY (Dollar Index) Technical Analysis – 2W Chart** ### **1. Uptrend Since 2008** The Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a **long-term uptrend** since the 2008 bottom (around 70.70). The chart shows a clear pattern of **higher highs and higher lows**, establishing a bullish market structure over the past 15+ years. --- ### **2. Ascending Channel** The price has been moving consistently within a well-defined **ascending channel**. Several reactions from the channel boundaries are visible: - **Support (lower trendline):** 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2024 - **Resistance (upper trendline):** 2009, 2017, 2022 This suggests that the market is respecting the technical boundaries of the channel remarkably well. --- ### **3. Historical Pullbacks Within the Channel (13.5% – 15%)** The chart highlights major **pullbacks** from local tops, all falling within the **-12.6% to -16.9%** range, showing high consistency: | Year | Drop | % Decline | |-------------|----------|----------------| | 2009 | -14.76 | -16.47% | | 2010 | -14.97 | -16.90% | | 2017 | -15.17 | -14.61% | | 2020 | -13.65 | -13.25% | | 2022 | -14.90 | -12.98% | | 2024/2025 | -13.90 | -12.61% | This implies that **a retracement of 13–15%** from a local high is a historically "normal" correction within the ongoing uptrend. --- ### **4. EMA Analysis – 24, 120, 240** (2Y,5Y,10Y) The chart includes three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reflecting short-, medium-, and long-term trends: - **EMA 24 (white line):** Reacts to short-term price action. Price is currently breaking below it, suggesting weakness in short-term momentum. - **EMA 120 (red line):** Reflects the mid-term trend. Price is **right at the edge**, often acting as a **support level** in bullish markets. - **EMA 240 (blue line):** Represents the long-term outlook. **Price has never stayed below this level for long** over the past 15 years, making this EMA a **critical support** for the long-term trend. --- ### **Conclusion & Potential Scenarios** 📉 **Bearish Scenario:** If DXY breaks below the **EMA 240** and the **lower channel boundary**, it could indicate a **reversal of the long-term uptrend**, which hasn’t happened since 2008. 📈 **Bullish Scenario:** If DXY holds above the **EMA 120** or bounces from the **EMA 240** and the **channel support**, we could expect a rally toward the **Fibonacci levels** (0.5 at 102.04 or 0.382 at 105.04), or even a retest of the highs around **114.78**.
TVC:DXY
by Aleksin_Aleksandar
“The Dollar Job: Break-In Strategy for 99+ Profits”💸 “DXY Heist Blueprint: Thieves’ Bullish Breakout Play” 🏴‍☠️ 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Welcome, Money Makers & Silent Robbers 🕶️💼✨ This is our next big Thief Trading Heist Plan targeting the 💵 DXY Dollar Index Vault. Armed with both technical precision 🔍 and fundamental insight 📊, we're ready to strike smart — not just fast. 🎯 THE MASTER HEIST PLAN: 🟢 ENTRY POINT – “Heist Entry Protocol” 🎯 Wait for price to break above Resistance @ 99.000 and candle to close ✅ 💥 Plan A: Place Buy Stop Orders just above breakout 📥 Plan B: For Pullback Pros, use Buy Limit at recent swing low/high (15m–30m TF) 📌 Tip: Set alerts — don’t get caught napping while the vault opens! ⏰🔔 🛑 STOP LOSS – “Thief’s Escape Hatch” 🧠 Use 4H swing low at 98.100 as SL ⚖️ Adjust based on your lot size and number of open positions 🚨 Don't rush to set SL for Buy Stop entries before confirmation! Patience is part of the plan. 😎 🎯 TARGET – “Mission Objective” 💰 First Exit Target: 100.000 🏃‍♂️ Optional: Escape earlier near high-risk zones (Blue MA Line Trap Area) ⚔️ SCALPERS' CODE – Stay Sharp! Only scalp on the Long side. 🔐 Use Trailing SL to guard your loot! 💸 Big wallets? Jump early. 🧠 Smaller stack? Follow the swing crew for coordinated execution. 🌐 MARKET OUTLOOK: WHY THE VAULT’S OPENING 💡 Currently seeing bullish momentum in the DXY 📈 Driven by macroeconomics, sentiment shifts, and intermarket pressure 📰 Want the full debrief? Check our analysis across: COT Data Geopolitics & News Macro Trends & Sentiment Fundamental Forces 📎🔗 See full breakdown ⚠️ TRADE MANAGEMENT ALERT 🚫 Avoid opening new trades during high-impact news 🔁 Always use Trailing Stops to lock in profits ❤️ Support The Heist – Boost the Plan! Every boost powers our underground crew 🐱‍👤. We rob the markets, not the people. 💼💰 Like & Boost to help grow the Thief Trading Gang 👊💥 Stay tuned, robbers – more heist plans dropping soon. 💸🚀📈🤑
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
DXY Short-term rebound quite likely.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within almost a 3-year Channel Down, which has assisted us in choosing the right levels to sell high and buy low. Despite being now on its 2nd major Bearish Leg, we see a short-term bounce possibly up to August quite likely based on the previous major Bearish Leg. As you see, the current setup resembles the April 13 023 Low after which the price rebounded short-term just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level, only to get rejected later and complete the bottom on the 1.1 Fib extension. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical. Therefore, before diving below 96.000, we believe a 100.000 test is quite likely. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
1
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 98.59 1st Support: 97.69 1st Resistance: 99.25 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DOLLAR INDEX the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.704 -98.572,0.34% . The index has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical tensions ,Particularly optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. The DXY remains below its 100-day,200 day exponential moving average (EMA), 100day, 200 day simple moving average with bearish momentum supported by interest rate hold and expected rate cut before the end of the year. the 10 year united states bond yield is trading around 4.279%-4.324%,we have seen gold sell off at 3336-3334 on dollar rally. Market Outlook: The DXY is attempting to stabilize but remains in a bearish phase until it decisively breaks above 100 resistance. the future of the dollar index is depending on Fed policy and global economic conditions. Summary: The DXY is currently weak around 97.88 -98.00 due to easing geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut expectations. Bearish momentum dominates below the 100-day EMA, 200-day EMA, 100-day SMA AND 200 day SMA A break above 100 would be needed to signal a bullish reversal, if the retest to broken supply at 100 could become demand floor . #dxy
ICEUS:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub