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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart 🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫 📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432 🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone) 🔸 Support Zone 🛠️ 📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce) 🔻 Target Point 🎯 📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside) 📊 Price Action Outlook: ✅ Bearish Scenario: Price rejected from resistance 🔽 Lower highs forming ⚡ Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯 ❌ Invalidation: If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫 🔥 Conclusion: ⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232 ❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
DXY March 21 Analysis DXY March 21 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session PREMIUM and PREMIUM on the daily range NO NEWS March 20 delivery Price was in a discount. Asia small consolidation takes minor sell side rallied in London to FVG created in the dealers range and noted buy side targets. Small consolidation. NY rallies to take key buy side from March 10 taken in NY. Retraces to the daily range 50 just barley in a Premium and goes into consolidation. Note the magnet that the event horizon has been this week. As price came down to the .70 on the Monthly range price is in a consolidation whipping between the .70 and .618 with long tailed candles. This week price widen that consolidation range. March 21 delivery Logic says that price will seek the 50 and lower FVG inefficiencies to rebalance. Note what liquidity is taken and go from there. No news can be high resistance, stay sharp. Study notes Price started the week on a sell stops raid making a new low on Tuesday. And yesterday making a higher high coming into the bottom part of HTF FVG. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
2
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels. First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here. However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it. Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel. This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by professionalgoldtrader
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD. Historical Peaks & Reversals Examining past DXY cycles, we see: 969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s. 1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend. 2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies. 2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal? Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro. Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally. Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally. With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
TVC:DXYShort
by adiyatcoto
DXY April 3 Analysis DXY April 3 Analysis *My parent bias is bear *News 8:30 & 10 *Previous session price is in a discount the and in a discount on current trading range. April 2 Analysis Fantastic sell off that I was suspecting in NY. Price did not reach for the buy side I suspected however, In Asia Price did take very minor buy side at the 3 macro London and starting selling from a Premium. Retraced before NY open. And continued to sell off. Nice silver bullet at 10 macro, coming into the hourly FVG. Small retracement at 12 and small consolidation. At 16:00 huge retracement and wick sell off to make the low of the week I was again looking for. Notice how Price took weeks of sell side in 1 day. Great delivery. April 3 Idea I could see Price in Asia and London continue to sell off completing the rebalancing of the hourly FVG and seek the clean equal lows. Reassess for NY after that. That said there are 2 new drivers in NY to be open to reading what the chart gives me. Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY April 1 AnalysisDXY April 1 Analysis *My parent bias is still bear coming into this week. *News 10 *Previous session price is in a premium and in a discount on current trading range in a consolidation cycle. Price opened in Asia to the down side taking sell side from last Thursday, creating equal lows, London Price retraced to the 50 level which was my original target and in NY rebalance Fridays FVG closing in consolidation. I suspected higher prices for the beginning of this week. Great delivery. Today I suspect that Price will come up to take the noted buy side and seek to rebalance the noted FVG, possibly take the noted clean equal highs. I am bull on this day. Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY:Seize the opportunity to sell short at high pricesThe situation in the Middle East is clearly deteriorating, which undoubtedly has a huge stimulating effect on the global risk aversion sentiment. More funds have started to seek safe havens. However, the best choice at present is not the US dollar. With the continuous rise of the East, more and more capital will favor this side of the East. Therefore, the pressure on the US dollar index is actually increasing, and it will be very difficult for it to rise. Regarding the trend of the US dollar index today, although the current situation exerts great pressure, the actions to support the market of the US dollar index still take effect from time to time. So the price will not keep falling, and there will still be some oscillatory patterns. However, even if it moves in an oscillatory pattern, the upward pressure on the US dollar index will be significant. Therefore, when the price reaches the effective resistance level, it will be an excellent opportunity to short the US dollar index. DXY Trading Strategy: buy@104.500 TP:103.500 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYShort
by LeoBlackwood
DXY March 30 Weekly AnalysisDXY March 30 Weekly Analysis *My parent bias is still bear coming into this week. *No news Monday *Previous session price is in a discount and in a consolidation cycle. *Note that price is weaving in between 2 HFT inefficiencies. *Study Sundays delivery Since March 18 Price has had a run on buy stops. Price pivoted on Wednesday at the 50 level of the range its trading in. I like how Price came up to the 50 level of the range its trading in and didn't spend much time there before breaking down. Avoiding the market on high resistance days like Thursday is getting easier to identify. When price is high resistance it is tipping its hand to a larger move coming so be patience and wait for price to come to my levels. NFC is this week. Will complete my weekly idea once Sundays delivers. My bias is lower prices and suspect it could be a violative week of Price delivery. Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY Is Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00. Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
TVC:DXY
by Mike_SnD
1
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into: 6-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months. It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently. Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment. A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index. 36-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years. It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles. A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term, we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook. 📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure. The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months. 🔍 What's Driving the Weakness? Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline: 📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage. 🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite. 💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar. 📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: 104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift 104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation 105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared 🔻 Key Support Zones: 103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels 102.84 – March low; major near-term support 102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts. 🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00 The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include: March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets. Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend. Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend. Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further. 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout 📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46 Momentum builds toward 105.96 April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts 📉 Bearish Scenario: Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84 Push into 102.00 support zone or lower April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside. With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
TVC:DXY
by Rotuma