US 100 Index – All Eyes On President Trump!Risk sentiment crumbled on Friday, taking the US 100 down 3% and within touching distance of its 2025 lows at 19113 from March 11th. More importantly it brought the index to a potentially crucial first retracement support level at 19065. Further details on this in the technical section below.
The weekend brought little in the way of positivity, with protests against Tesla and Elon Musk across Europe, and comments from President Trump stating he ‘couldn’t care less’ if automakers raise prices in response to his 25% tariff on imported vehicles, as US consumers will buy American cars.
Regarding ‘Liberation Day’, as he calls it, which is Wednesday April 2nd, where he has previously promised to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, he stated late on Sunday that ‘You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens’, which indicates he is in no hurry to back down. Although, as we all know, President Trump is unpredictable, so anything is still possible!
So, at the start of a potentially pivotal week for the direction of the US 100 index moving forward into the start of Q2 its probably no surprise to see it probing lower levels again. The focus for traders is likely to remain on the scope and size of the tariffs President Trump imposes, whether there are any reprieves or reductions provided to certain countries, and the extent of retaliatory action taken by trading partners such as the EU.
Concerns over the strength of the US economy also remain a hot topic for traders and in that regard, there is some tier 1 data to consider across the week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 1500 BST), ISM Services PMI (Thursday 1500 GMT) and then the Non-farm Payrolls (Friday 1330 BST) update all have the potential to impact the direction of the US 100 index.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that the week finishes with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 1625 BST on Friday? It really is a week that has it all!
Technical Update: 38% Retracement Support to Hold Again or Give Way?
Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, it wasn’t too much of a surprise that having seen the US 100 index trade to the March 11th low of 19113, a reactive recovery materialised.
As the chart above shows, the decline was a 14% move within a 4-week period between February 18th to March 11th, although perhaps more importantly, it approached support at 19065, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to February 2025 strength.
Traders will often focus on retracement levels within sharp phases of price activity, as potential support or resistance, from which reactive moves can be seen. It might be argued this was the case within the US 100 index.
Interestingly, as impressive as the recovery from the March 11th low appeared, this was held and reversed by resistance at 20307, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February to March weakness. See chart above.
What Now?
It would seem within the coming week, the first potential support to monitor on a closing basis is still the 19065 retracement, with 20307 continuing to represent possible resistance.
While closing breaks of either of these levels won’t guarantee a significant price movement with much still dependent on the outcome of events across the week, a closing breakout may lead to a more extended price move in the direction of any break.
Support: Closing breaks under the 19065 support might suggest resumption of recent declines, with risks possibly then emerging to test 18111, which is the deeper 50% retracement, may be even further if this is in turn breached.
Resistance: If 20307 is broken to the upside on a closing basis, it may lead to a further retracement of the February to March weakness, with the 50% level standing at 20679, or even 21050, which is the higher 62% retracement.
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US100 trade ideas
NASDAQ Bullish Reversal (Potential Tariff Resolution?) NASDAQ price action went through a massive correction with a drop from the top worth approx. 14%.
However after the passing of the latest FOMC Meeting, we may finally see a direction towards the resolution of widespread tariff based uncertainty across the macro economic landscape.
This presents us with a potential Reversal opportunity if we see the formation of a credible Higher High (given a potential proper break out) on the 4 HR and shorter timeframes.
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 20045
Stop Loss @ 19070
TP 0.9 - 1 @ 20923 - 21020
Precision Trading – How Our Trade Played Out PerfectlyIn trading, precision and patience are everything. We don’t chase trades—we wait for the perfect confluence of technical factors to align. This trade idea followed our systematic approach, utilizing ranges, Fibonacci levels, internal & inducement liquidity, break of structure (BOS), entry confirmation patterns, and harmonics. Here’s a breakdown of how it all unfolded.
1. Identifying the Range
Before executing, we mapped out the market structure to establish a clear range. The price action showed a well-defined consolidation zone, which helped us anticipate liquidity grabs and potential reversal points.
2. Fibonacci Confluence – 38.20% Level
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we identified the 38.20% level as a strong reaction point. This aligned with other key technicals, increasing our confidence in the trade setup.
3. Internal & Inducement Liquidity
Liquidity is key in trading. We spotted internal liquidity zones where price was likely to manipulate weak hands before the actual move. Inducement liquidity was also present, providing additional confirmation that price would tap into deeper levels before reversing.
4. Break of Structure (BOS) and Entry Confirmation
Once BOS occurred in alignment with our anticipated liquidity grab, we looked for our entry pattern. The market printed a textbook confirmation, allowing us to enter with precision and minimal risk.
5. Harmonic Pattern for Additional Confluence
The final piece of confirmation was a harmonic pattern, further validating our entry. These patterns, when combined with our overall strategy, add an extra layer of probability to our trades.
Trade Outcome
The execution was flawless! 🎯 The price respected our levels, moved in our favor, and hit our target zones with precision. This is the power of structured analysis and disciplined execution.
📉 Key Takeaway: Never trade blindly! Always have a solid confluence of technicals before taking a trade.
🔎 What’s your go-to confirmation before entering a trade? Let’s discuss in the comments! 📩
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Monday NasDaqMorning Buddy, Today I hope to see 2 things that I have put on my Journal, 1 : Nas is within a daily FVG which seems weak to hold, but enough to create a manipulative retracement, either into the highlighted zone, which is a weekly bullish candle. 2 : The gap gets slowly taken, increasing FOMO trading and then retraces leaving $ lows, should this happen I expect to see the market retrace in a way that makes 15 minutes charts going down to 5, seem completely bullish.
I will drop a video later today to keep up with the charts. Stay tuned. Happy Trading
2018 - "this time it'll be different"Not really.
Market sentiment echoes an unstable whiplashing and overcooked economy that is accompanied by a hawkish Fed unwilling to slash rates. Sound familiar? So let's overlay 2018 and see if that's when the twists and turns come....
Apr 2 low, Apr 14 high, May 5 low.
As good a guess as any right?
Bear Market FormingVery big things happening in the economy this quarter, mainly trade wars, real wars, and new policies.
Job cuts 100k+ government job cuts, 25-50k more expected in the coming months. In addition to 35k tech layoffs, and 38,956 retail job cut announcement. So probably 225k+ jobs lost this year
The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February.
Tarrifs are divided, some calling it inflationary, but statements from JPM: "Roughly half of the GDP decline from higher tariffs is attributed to a negative sentiment shock related to rising trade policy uncertainty." and RBC: "Based on 2024 import data from Canada, Mexico, and China, the announced tariffs could boost total U.S. tariff revenues by about $300 billion" at least show potential offsets.
War has been ongoing, but increased economic activity from Russia, and stimulus in the EU increase liquidity in the markets.
But all of that is going to take time to settle, so you cant write off another 6 months of a downtrend of up to 10% in equities - until we get more information introduced to the market.
NAS100 OUTLOOKAnalysis of NAS100 (H4 Timeframe)
Key Observations:
Downtrend Structure
The market has been in a consistent downtrend since February 2025.
Lower highs and lower lows indicate strong bearish momentum.
Key Support Zone (Near 19,225)
The price is currently sitting at a critical support level.
If buyers step in, we could see a bounce to previous resistance levels.
If this level breaks, the next potential target could be around 18,800 - 18,700.
No Clear Bullish Signs Yet
The price is still making lower highs.
A bullish reversal would require a strong rejection or bullish candlestick pattern at support.
Possible Trade Setups
Bullish Setup (Buy Trade - If Support Holds)
✅ Entry: If price forms a bullish reversal pattern around 19,225 - 19,300.
🎯 Target: First target 19,800, second target 20,400.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Below 19,100 to avoid fakeouts.
📈 Confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing candles or double-bottom formations.
Bearish Setup (Sell Trade - If Support Breaks)
❌ Entry: Below 19,100 after a strong bearish close.
🎯 Target: First target 18,800, second target 18,600.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Above 19,400 to protect against false breakdowns.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, NAS100 is at a make-or-break level.
If buyers defend support, a rally to 19,800+ is likely.
If support breaks, expect a further drop to 18,800 or lower.
Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Pullback Loading? Small Retrace or Massive Opportunity AhThe NAS100 looks primed for more downside, but the real question is: how deep will the pullback go? Right now, we’re trading into key lows — a shallow retrace could offer a lower RR setup, but if we get a bigger move back, it could set the stage for a high-probability, high-reward trade.
$NAS100 in correction mode. Is a bounce coming?Market experts will say 10% is a correction 20% is a bear market. In the last 5 years NASDAQ100 has been in the bear market 2 times. Once during COVID19 and another time during the FED Rate hike cycle. And it has been in correction mode in Aug 2024 when the Yen carry trade unwound.
Since Aug 2024 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has shown great strength with higher highs and higher lows and perfectly within the upward slopping Fib Retracement channel as shown in the chart below respecting the major fib levels and bouncing off from the 0.618 Fib retracement level every time it had a drawdown. The current correction in PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is very close to the 0.618 Fib retracement level which is currently at 18700. This will indicate another potential downside of 2-3 % and if the Fib levels are supposed to holds then we will see a bottom @ 18700 and a bounce back from those levels. This will also bring down the RSI to low 30s which will indicate an oversold position.
Verdict: Start DCA into $ NAS100 and go long 18700.
NAS100 Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 19,181.5.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 19,921.0 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
US100 BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 19,170.0
Target Level: 20,308.4
Stop Loss: 18,413.4
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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US100 analysis Hi traders as you can see we've been trading in strong uptrend channel however I call it big bearish flag and it is broken as a buyer do you goo against it expecting market to just reject n continue to goo up noo,if am not willing to follow the trend I wait n monitor trade to my demand zones,expect more drops to come as trump raise another tarrif on 2 April my target is at 168 highs n understand that I don't control the market but I follow the trends n my rules, trading with wars it's very surprising n aggressive I can say that 2025 soo far it's hard to position yourselfs in long term gains as it's under pressure since January soo it might be a good year or bad year take care.
Are we sleeping on a massive double top?As you can see, The Nasdaq has made two near equal peaks around the 22100 area.
Although the Weekly candles of the first and second week of February were bullish, it coincided with two weeks of declining volume, usually meaning momentum exhaustion.
On the 18th February the Nasdaq printed a strong ‘no body’ red doji on the daily TF. This is an indecision candle but can signal the beginning of a trend change.
The Green Areas show the Daily Fair Value Gaps and I’ve but a target beside the Fair Value Gaps that are currently unfilled.
If the Nasdaq breaks beneath 20500, the targets underneath this price is where I’d expect price to be drawn towards.
Also, I have highlighted some notable lows where I’d expected volatility around. I am not suggesting at that this move could in a straight line by the way. If it happens, it will happen in waves.
This is based 100% on technical analysis.
NAS100: Likely rebound at major point within Ascending ChannelCAPITALCOM:US100 is likely to be undergoing a corrective move as it tests the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as shown on my chart. This boundary serves as dynamic trendline support and a significant bullish reaction could happen if buyers step in at this level.
A successful rebound from this support could lead to a move toward the midline of the channel, with the next target at around 22,000 . This scenario would maintain the overall bullish trend structure.
However, a clear breakdown below the trendline support would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to further downside.
Monitoring candlestick patterns and volume at this critical zone is essential for identifying buying opportunities. Proper risk management is advised, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
If you have any thoughts on this setup or additional insights, drop them in the comments!
NAS100 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
Nas100 initially showed signs of recovery with some bullish momentum. However, in the last three days of the week, the market sentiment shifted, breaking key support zones at 19,880.00, 19,400.00, and 19,151.00. This drop was driven by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a more pessimistic inflation outlook.
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 19,400.00
📉 Support: 19,151.00 – If broken, price may drop further.
🔹 Market Structure:
🚀 Bullish scenario: Rejection of 19,151.00 & break of 19,400.00 → Retest → Target higher levels.
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Break of 19,151.00 → Drop to 18,796.10 → Further decline if broken.
📌 Risk Management: Wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before entering trades.
NASDAQ 100 IndexThe price has already dropped to the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
If this support line is also broken, the next support level is the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)