Weekly Analyses Hi Traders,
Welcome to another weekly analyses for Sep 23 - 27
Top Down Analyses:
Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly chart, price is currently in a consolidation area between 20,033.6 and 18,092.2. The bullish inside day candle that was formed on Monday Sep 9, served as an indication that price would continue bullish. However, price is still yet to breakout of the range to confirm buys to ATHs. Currently, price is at a level of resistance where price previously retraced. Using my fibs, we can see that price currently sits at the 78.6% fib level known to be a key area of retracement.
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, price has showed more bullish structure as it respected a level of support at 19,311.7 along with the daily moving averages to complete its trend move from Low to High with a strong bullish candle. However, this High point signalled is currently only 500pips above the previous LH which as I mentioned is at a level of resistance. Similar to the previous LH signalled, price can retrace to signal HL a retest the previous lows.
10H TF
On the 10H chart we can see more clearly that the 10H HH signalled is currently forming a double top pattern until price gives a clear breakout of structure. This double top is an indication that price can retrace to complete the M pattern and signal a HL on the bigger TF.
Trading Plan for the week:
Monday and Tuesday are notoriously known for low volume and consolidation therefore I will not be taking any trades at the start of the week. Instead I will monitor price action for signs of retracements or breakout of structure for a clearer directional bias for the rest of the week.
Currently, my bias is bearish to signal HL on the bigger timeframes for the following reasons:
1. Since price signalled a Daily HL on August 4th, price has been very bullish only signalling a 4H HL once on Monday Sep 16th which respected a 23.6% fib level. The first week following the Daily HL price only signalled a 1H HL.
2. Price is at a strong area of resistance highlighted by the red zone where price previously retraced.
3. Price is currently at the 78.6% fib level on the weekly chart.
Since my bias is bearish, I am looking for to see wether price action will respect the retracement zone that I have highlighted in blue. Therefore, as long as price remains below 20,057.1 the retracement is valid to signal HL on the bigger TFs.
If not, then price will breakout of the weekly consolidation range maintaining its bullish strength by signalling a series of HLs on the 1H - 2H TFs to continue to ATHs.
