US30 trade ideas
DJI DOW JOUNS- The Dow Jones Industrial Average
trade 656 points high, or 1.5%. S&P 500
climbed 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite upside
rallied 2.2%.
[It seems like the markets are responding positively to recent economic data and more strong earnings reports from major U.S. bank
US30 Short (Swing Trade)US30 is retracing to a key area left behind by a high-volume candle. The area lines with my normal entry zone of the 50% and 61.8% retracement zone.
US30 I Bullish continuation but opportunity for pullbackWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** US30 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures
The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President?
Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies
My research setup is as follow:
• I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms.
• For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term.
• The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th.
Here is what I found:
• Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%)
• Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%)
• Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term
• George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%)
• Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years
• George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively
• Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term
• Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%)
• Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%)
Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%).
Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset.
Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%!
Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures
The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market.
Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies.
• As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months
• Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year
• 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%)
An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances.
Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract.
CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio.
Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077).
Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077).
Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration:
• A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February
• He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract
• He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May
• Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August
This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts.
There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses.
The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks.
For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5).
The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive.
The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
When you miss it, you have to waitPer personal rules done for the week but was happy to see a trend change after getting stopped out.
Ascending wedges in DJI vs BTC topsJust a comparison of ascending wedges in DJI and the tops of BTC runs. Not saying we are at the top of this run... but just something to look at as a possible sign if broken.
US30 SELLAnalazying US30 shows me a strong bearish trend on higher TFs.
Even though price is Currently trading on a daily AOI for possible bullish movement,
Price continuously breaking Lower lows.
- As price just retraced to a 2hr/4h Area of Interest, a medium-risk opportunity is presented.
- limit order set and triggered
-Let's see if price continues its bearish momentum with this trade
Like and Comment your thoughts!
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US 30 WALL STREET SHORTLet's try this quick short before the end of the evening
No financial advice.
Make your own choices and be cautious."
Possibility of correction It is expected that after some fluctuation and correction, the upward trend will continue.
Considering the price behavior in the resistance trend line, possible scenarios have been identified
us30US 30 - Dow Jones
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Demand Zone
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
US30 BullishWaiting for the market to retest to the retest area and I think it will push up after that.
US30 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE Here on Us30 price form a supply zone and is likely to fall more so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 42242.9 and stoploss of 42690.2 . Use money management
DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge.
Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top.
The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next pull back.
Targets:
1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Down Jones Wave Analysis 14 January 2025
- Down Jones reversed from support level 42000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 43000.00
Down Jones index recently reversed up with the daily Piercing Line reversal pattern from the pivotal support level 42000.00, which has been reversing the price from September.
The support level 42000.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
Given the strength of the support level 42000.00 and the improvement in investor sentiment as seen across the global equity markets, Down Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 43000.00.
YM (US30): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the accurate trend, channels, and colored levels.
Its very sensitive setup, ...............<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Be careful
BEST
MT
US30 - 15 min ( Best Buy & Sell Scalping After Break Out ) Analysis of Key Levels in US30 on the 15-Minute Time Frame
The evaluation of financial markets, particularly the US30 index, necessitates a meticulous examination of key levels that influence market movements. A recent analysis identified pivotal breakout points on the 15-minute time frame, which could serve as essential indicators for traders looking to capitalize on potential price movements.
The bullish scenario has been established following a breakout at the key level of 42540 points, accompanied by high trading volume. Such a surge suggests a robust buying sentiment among market participants, indicating the potential for upward continuation. The presence of significant volume at this breakout point reinforces the likelihood of a sustained bullish trend, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price action closely during subsequent trading sessions.
Conversely, a bearish outlook has emerged from a breakout at the key level of 42320 points, also characterized by high volume. This breakdown signals a shift in market sentiment towards selling, presenting potential opportunities for traders who prefer to capitalize on downward movements. The implications of this bearish breakout are critical, as they may foreshadow further declines in the US30 index, prompting a reassessment of existing trading strategies.
In conclusion, the US30 index presents clear breakout levels that traders should closely monitor: the bullish breakout at 42540 points and the bearish breakout at 42320 points, both coupled with high trading volume. This analysis underscores the necessity of precision and caution in trading decisions, focusing on accurate opportunities rather than merely numerical data. By adhering to these key levels, traders can better align themselves with market dynamics, enhancing their potential for success.
⚡️US30 / FXCM
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨 Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 42540 Point
🚨 Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 42320 Point
⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis 💲 Not by Number ..+
"Analyzing the Dow Jones Chart: Current Market in a Trading RangCurrently, the Dow Jones is exhibiting a trading range pattern, as seen on the chart. The price is consolidating between key support and resistance levels, indicating indecision in the market. According to my trading plan, it is essential to remain patient and wait for a clear breakout or breakdown from this range to confirm the next directional move.
Key Observations:
The market is respecting the boundaries of the trading range.
No significant trend is currently forming, suggesting potential opportunities after a breakout.
Maintaining discipline and waiting for confirmation is crucial to avoid premature entries.
I'll monitor the price action closely for any signs of a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support to align with my strategy. For now, patience is key.
Dow Jones is Raining Mother Candle (Daily Time Frame) has been broken down, 42540 is ultimate Stop Loss for bears. At present, there is a hanging in intraday, it is like expanded Flat Correction in the form of ABC, the high of Wave C (42503) may not cross
Trade Uni - LONG DOW (current price 42340)See support hold and new bullish momentum kick in after a new trend break, we see higher prices during the next few sessions. Keep proactive with trade management as markets are lively at the moment. First level higher is at the 200 day ema at 43035 then resistance at 43356.
Trade busts if price fall below 41618 support level.
DJI Short Trade Nets $2100 Dip: A 4.7% Market Move!Dow Jones Industrial (DJI): $2100 Drop Captured
On December 11, 2024, the Risological Options Trading Indicator provided a clear signal to initiate a short trade on the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). This trade capitalized on a significant bearish move, capturing an impressive $2100 dip, equating to a massive 4.7% decline from the entry point.
The trade was identified using the Risological Options Trading Indicator, which accurately captured the strong bearish momentum. The red overlay in the histogram confirms increasing selling pressure, coinciding with the downward trajectory.
This setup highlights how the Risological Options Trading Indicator leverages market structure to pinpoint high-probability trades. The captured $2100 move reinforces its precision in navigating even the most volatile markets.
All the best!
Namaste.
