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WTI1! trade ideas

CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.3-21.3 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 16th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). A double bottom has formed, signaling the start of the second phase. The extreme forecast on March 19 pushed crude upward from a sideways trend. However, the beginning of the second phase is very weak. A strong resistance level lies ahead at 70 on current futures. 👉 My bearish outlook remains unchanged, as outlined in my summer 2024 crude oil post. The crude market has been in a sideways trend since fall 2022. This resembles the 2010-2014 period. Timing suggests a resolution in 2025. However, this does not mean history will repeat exactly—it is simply a similar setup. We will continue to navigate based on the current extreme forecasts. ⚠️ The current base cycle cannot yet be classified as bearish, as it has not broken its starting point. Watch for the midpoint of retrograde Mercury on March 24. The next important extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and March 31.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
Tactical Setups & Opportunistic Fades Asset Focus: Crude Oil (WTI) Setup Type: Bull Trap Reversal with Structural Decompression – Tactical Short Bias ⸻ Setup Overview: Crude Oil has transitioned from an emotionally driven rally into a reactive phase of structural decompression. The advance was underwritten by geopolitical risk and inflation narratives, but failed to sustain as macro catalysts reversed. The recent U.S. tariff announcement and OPEC+’s unexpected supply adjustment have directly challenged the bullish framework, forcing a revaluation of near-term demand and policy trajectory. The result: a rejection event that is less about price and more about positioning. The crowd narrative cracked — and the structure followed. What unfolds now is not collapse, but reset. ⸻ COT & Sentiment Snapshot: • Leveraged funds expanded long exposure aggressively into strength — classic trend-chasing. • Recent positioning data shows contraction in net longs, signaling early-phase exit behavior. • Open interest has dropped in parallel with price — a sign of liquidation, not new conviction. • Commercial activity likely neutral-to-hedging, providing natural resistance into strength. • Sentiment rotated quickly — from supply fears to demand caution — validating the trap thesis. ⸻ Market Structure & Technical Breakdown: • Structure confirms a failed continuation — rejection at a known inflection zone undercuts trend integrity. • Rally occurred without foundational support — gaps beneath price reflect structural imbalance. • Price has rotated back through key pivots, invalidating prior momentum. • Thin, untested zones now offer a path of least resistance if pressure continues. • Current structure suggests rotational or decompressing behavior rather than directional clarity. ⸻ Behavioral Finance Layer: “When the justification for a trade becomes a headline, the trade is already crowded.” • Market participants had fully embraced oil as a geopolitical and inflation hedge — a one-dimensional thesis. • The introduction of U.S. tariffs and the OPEC+ supply shift challenged that belief in real time. • The rejection was not just technical — it was narrative failure. • Emotional capital is now unwinding. The next phase will not be fast — it will be unsure. ⸻ Reflexivity Risk Model: • Phase 1: Risk-driven narratives drive flow into the asset (conflict, inflation, supply tightness). • Phase 2: Price rise validates the narrative — conviction deepens, flows accelerate. • Phase 3: Macro catalysts shift (tariffs, supply bump), undermining belief system. • Phase 4: Narrative fails — positioning begins to unwind, structure decompresses under pressure. ⸻ Strategic Stance: Hold a tactical short bias grounded in structural rejection and narrative breakdown. No immediate directional call is required — the edge is in recognizing the psychological unwind already underway. Until a new belief structure emerges, the path forward remains governed by residual flow and fading conviction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by pharyeh
Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil is still bought at a low price, and short-term bulls have started. Yesterday, gold fell in the US market, but did not fall in the Asian market, but repaired at a high level. The strong support of the daily line has reached 70.00, and the small support is 70.50. Today's idea is to find buying opportunities above 71.50. The daily moving average of crude oil is lined up, and there is still a lot of room for growth. Fundamental analysis: This week is a data week. Today, pay attention to the ADP employment data, which is the pre-agricultural data. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 70.60, target 71.90-76.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀 📊 Trade Setup: Entry Price: $73.12 Take Profit 1: $73.99 Take Profit 2: $76.20 Take Profit 3: $78.47 Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone) 📈 Analysis: After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by: 1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations. 2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets. 3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered! 🎯 Targets: With momentum on our side, we’re targeting: $73.99: Quick resistance retest. $76.20: Alignment with prior highs. $78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone. 🔹 Risk Management: Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal. ⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ValchevFinance
Bearish Analysis: Crude Oil (CL Futures)1️⃣ Rejected at Supply Zone: The price was strongly rejected from the $80 supply zone, where sellers clearly took control. This zone has been a key resistance level, and the recent bearish momentum confirms strong selling pressure. 2️⃣ Bearish Momentum in Play: The sharp decline from the supply zone has broken short-term supports, signaling sustained bearish movement. The next major target is the $66–$67 demand zone, where buyers may step in. 3️⃣ Technical Indicators Supporting Bears: RSI: At 54.88, the RSI suggests there’s room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions. Stochastic Oscillator: A bearish crossover between the %K and %D lines confirms increasing selling pressure, with momentum favoring a continuation of the trend. 4️⃣ Fundamentals Adding Pressure: Trump’s Energy Policy: Potential policy changes to increase domestic oil supply could create a bearish outlook for crude oil. Stronger Dollar: The strengthening USD makes oil more expensive for global buyers, further dampening demand and supporting the bearish case. 🎯 Strategy: TP1: $75 (Near-term target, close to the current price). TP2: $74.30 (Minor support, a potential bounce or pause area). TP3: $72 (A strong psychological and technical level). TP4: $67 (Major demand zone). 🔔 Note: Consider using a positive stop loss to secure gains and reduce risk. Always practice proper risk management to protect your capital and maintain consistent results.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ValchevFinance
Crude oil ------ Buy around 68.60, target 70.00-70.60Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil can be sold at short positions of 70.20-70.60, and the buying position is around 68.60. It is strong in the short term. We need to pay attention to the situation when it stands above 70.00. If the daily line stands above it, we need to pay attention to the new buying opportunities later, and the big drop will come to an end. However, the long-term trend of crude oil is still selling. In addition, with the increase in inventory data, the price of crude oil is unlikely to rise much. Operation suggestion: Crude oil ------ Buy around 68.60, target 70.00-70.60
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
#202512 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: 4h chart tells the story the best. No acceptance below 66.5 and above 68. Bulls managed to get the second weekly bull bar but they have gained almost nothing. It could continue up and keep the multi-year contraction alive, since the double bottom at 65 looks good. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 70 bull case: Bulls need to print 70. That’s about it. The double bottom at 65 is decent enough to buy pull-backs with that stop. Bulls also managed to close above the daily 20ema on Friday and above 68. They now need to break above the last bear trend line around 68.5 and are then free to test 70. They do need to prevent another lower low below 65 if they want to have a major trend reversal. Invalidation is below 65. bear case: Bears look like they are exhausted and not pushing for new lows. If we close green next week and above 70, clear major trend reversal. Bears could surprise again and push below 65, which would open up targets below 64 and 63. Issue for bears is that below are so many support prices, that it’s hard to argue for more selling but since this is a commodity, could surprise to the downside as well. Technically, bears do not have much below 68. They need to keep the bear trend line around 68.5 alive or give up until market hits 70 again. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral but if bulls continue above 68.5, leaning bullish for 70. Odds favor continuation of sideways movement 65-68. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear trend lines that were broken or likely not relevant anymore.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, targeCrude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, is it a buying opportunity? In fact, looking at the pattern, it has been hovering at this position for a long time, and the short-term is basically a snake. If the position of 70.00 is not broken, it is difficult to form a buying opportunity. The idea of ​​crude oil today is still bearish. Continue to sell on the rebound. The previous contract delivery of crude oil has not changed the trend. I think it still needs to fluctuate. Operation suggestion: Crude oil ------- sell around 70.00, target 68.00-66.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat
Crude Oil Futures Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 032025Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 67/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NYMEX:CL1!
by fibonacci6180
Will oil prices collapse to $60?Is there a chance for oil prices to fall to $60? On Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures continued to rise and settled around $68.3 per barrel. This was the third consecutive day of gains amid growing concerns about supply disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Israeli airstrike on Gaza and U.S. President Trump's threat to hold Iran accountable for any Houthi attacks in Yemen have heightened tensions in the region and contributed to the rise in oil prices. One of the main causes of the recent price rise has been an expected increase in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer. This is due to its economic stimulus plans and positive data on the economy. However, the potential rise in prices could be held back by progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to increased supply in the global market. In addition, U.S. President Trump is expected to talk with Putin today to try to end the ongoing war between the two countries. Another significant risk factor for oil prices is escalating trade tensions, which is worrying investors about economic growth and energy demand. Currently, oil is not having a good time, with a 5 percent decline in quotations over the past three months. The main cause of this pressure is OPEC+'s announcement to increase production in April. In addition, markets are preparing for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and possible retaliatory measures by China against the United States. Concerns about a possible global trade war are affecting the energy market. Fears are that this could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand, leading to an uncertain situation where supply from the OPEC cartel is increasing while demand remains unstable. The news is not very positive as oil production continues to increase. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia, known as OPEC+, have decided to increase oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, a move that marks the first increase since 2022. Although this increase aims to phase out previous production cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential abundance of supply in the market. The 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada went into effect at the same time as the 10 percent increase on Chinese goods. In response, Beijing immediately imposed taxes of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. agricultural products. The current situation leads to a widespread and dangerous trade war, which can negatively affect economic growth and the outlook on oil demand. When studying oil, it is also essential to consider the trading currency, which is the dollar. In 2025, I predict that the dollar will continue to strengthen while the Fed keeps interest rates high. This may not be favorable for oil prices. From a technical point of view, the situation on Oil is even worse. The decline is accompanied by above-average volumes, and prices remain consistently below the 200-period moving average. According to my forecast, oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel in the coming quarters. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been hovering at the bottom recently. It is necessary to short it at the high suppression position. It is difficult to make a profit by shorting in the middle and chasing. Today's idea is to continue to short it after the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 68.00-68.50. Crude oil is basically difficult to change the trend in the short term. Yesterday's crude oil contract delivery was not big. The price of the new contract is basically the same as the old one. Fundamental analysis: The Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, which is in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025. The Federal Reserve will begin to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction on April 1. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 68.20, target 66.00-65.20
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat