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WTI1! trade ideas

Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG & target MKL $80.00 Per Barrel?NYMEX:CL1! " A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." -Jackie Robinson As we head into the 2nd trading week of the New Year, I hope everyone has a HIGH SET Goal that they want to achieve. Let's be strategic in our goals and make sure we put forth rightful action that will get us the results we desire. In this sport we play there is no Reward without RISK... So, let's get down to business on what exactly were looking for this week to STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE to benefit... 'Crude OIL': Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt STOP / 50-60pt Target Key info: On average Crude Oil runs for 120pts LONG or SHORT during NY session 5am-2pm PST. Our Playbook: We cut 120 in Half = 60pts as our new GOAL to catch for the DAY (Intra Day) Pillar 1) HTF EOF "Market Direction" In which direction are we headed? Who has the stronger hand? Currently Buyers have the stronger hand on both the Daily & 4Hr TF's. Since the New Year kicked off Oil has been rallying to the upside breaking Supply and Demand HOLDING with strong conviction. So now we know that HTF/LTF Pro Trend is LONG and HTF/LTF Counter Trend is SHORT. With Oil Currently trading inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone I am going to wait for more data to develop in the PA before I start to build the Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA). Once we get our Confluence Profile to flow in symmetry together; HTF Mitigation w LTF Entry Confirmation / Order Flow Footprint + PA we then will enter our positions INTRA DAY.... Keynote: LTF Pro Trend is LONG & LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.... Either way is Profitable!! Done correctly at the right time & price. I will keep update as more date in the PA develops throughout the week. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above. Invalidation is below 72.6. bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again. Invalidation is above 80. outlook last week: short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. → Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook. short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil is heading for $80Light Crude Oil (CL) is showing bullish signs after the confirmation of an upside break of the long term downtrend line “K” at $73. Now the contract is hitting the resistance of $76 where if it breaks to the upside then the space that can be stretched "unfortunately" goes up to $80. Above that, inflation alarm bells will start to ring. It is a thorny element that can spoil the upward momentum of the markets since it will make central bankers more frugal in their decisions to further reduce interest rates. For something to change here, the contract will have to declare a strong weakness of permeability at the level of $76 to $77.
NYMEX:CL1!
by manthos
HTF Directional Bias for CL I like the fact that price traded higher into a premium and found rejection off the Volume Imbalance 50% CE level as it clears the BSL above the PDHs. Currently price is trading inside the wick from the Mon 06 Jan 2025 and looks to have reached as low as the 25% quadrant level. My bias for CL is Bearish as I am looking at the two PDLs in discount above the D BISI which should act as a draw for price to reach lower and clear that SSL at 73.11 and 72.70 From there I could expect price to dip into the D BISI and reject possibly off the high or 50% CE level.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ProphetTheTrader
2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Bearish but only slightly and probably better after a lower high above 74. Bears broke the bull trend line and made new lows. 75 got 2 big rejections and we either continue down or we do a lower high below 75.29. Selling below 73.5 has not been profitable for a week, so don’t try be the first. On the daily chart it’s still just a minor two-legged correction, so it’s not the best short to take. Bears probably want better confirmation. Their first target below 73 is 72 and then likely the daily 20ema around 71.5. comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 75.5 bull case: Bulls are still in control and making higher highs and higher lows. They want a daily close above 75 to retest the October high 77.38. They see a two-legged correction on the daily chart and that is a buy signal in a bull trend. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears producing amazing bear bars above 74.5 but the follow through is terrible. They need lower lows below 72.7 to trap late bulls. The volume increase on the selling is good for them but until the trading range 72.7 - 75.3 is broken, bulls remain in control or market is at least neutral inside that range. I do think the overall structure on the daily/weekly time frames is in favor of the bears and once they get below 72.7, it’s a sell signal if you can hold a swing short with a wide stop. Next target is 72 and then 71.5ish (daily 20ema). Invalidation is above 75.3. short term: Neutral inside range and bearish below 72.7 or above 75 for a swing short. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 75 again was decent for 200 ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Bullish on Crude Oil: Targeting Higher Prices Next Week - Key Insights: Crude oil is showing bullish momentum with strong market sentiment favoring long positions. Key support levels are around $73 and $72, while resistance levels are at $74.26 and $75.53. Recent trends indicate that the energy sector is outperforming others, driven by rising oil prices and investment optimism. - Price Targets: - Next week targets: T1 = $75.53, T2 = $78.46 - Stop levels: S1 = $71.50, S2 = $70.00 - Recent Performance: The price of crude oil has recently been hovering around $73.68, with upward momentum evident in tight consolidation patterns. The energy sector as a whole has increased by 3.4% to 5.4%, outperforming other industries. - Expert Analysis: Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the crude oil market, with a focus on price levels that suggest potential support at $72 and $71.50. The prevailing sentiment encourages long positions as the market positions itself for possible price increases. - News Impact: Geopolitical tensions involving oil supply, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, are intensifying concerns over supply disruptions. Furthermore, potential tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico could disrupt market stability and increase price volatility. The upcoming developments in energy policy will further shape the market dynamics in 2025.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Can the HOUSE Capitalize LONG this week on Crude OIL...?NYMEX:MCL1! "In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr. Here on the 4Hr TF market opened up and we are currently inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone ($73.43). Now this is my "Confluence Profile 500K" Playbook System to go LONG; Pillar 1) HTF EOF 'Market Direction' Who has the stronger more dominant hand? Now everyone's perception is different and that is totally fine. In my personal opinion we are still Pro Trend Bearish, however currently buyers have the slight EDGE. Now Im going to wait see how price reacts with the 4HR Sub. ($73.75) and wait to see if we can get a LTF Order Flow Footprint confirmation to enter LONG and Target the HIGHS.... Pillar 2) HTF Mitigation leads to LTF Order Flow Entry Confirmation. Let's be more patient and wait for more Data to be printed and then we'll create a better narrative to enter. I'll keep close update as PA develops. Til then before I head off, family I have to say; NOTHING and I repeat NOTHING in the market is set in stone. We play probability & adaptability to market conditions. Let's be skilled. Let's be patient. Let's be focused. Developing a stronger system that performs exceedingly well over time. Continued Success to you all... Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this. comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again. Invalidation is above 77.4. short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀 📊 Trade Setup: Entry Price: $73.12 Take Profit 1: $73.99 Take Profit 2: $76.20 Take Profit 3: $78.47 Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone) 📈 Analysis: After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by: 1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations. 2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets. 3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered! 🎯 Targets: With momentum on our side, we’re targeting: $73.99: Quick resistance retest. $76.20: Alignment with prior highs. $78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone. 🔹 Risk Management: Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal. ⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ValchevFinance
Confluence Profile 500K (Order Flow Footprint + PA) 2.5RNYMEX:CL1! "If you can't fly then run, if you can't run then walk. If you can't walk, then crawl. But whatever you do you have to keep moving forward." -Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Family I hope everyone is in good spirits as we kick off this new year of 2025!!!! Here in this video I have went into gr8 detail on this trade that I took SHORT todays during NY Session on Crude OIL and I broke down the Order Flow Footprint along with PA on why I decided to enter the trade and capitalize on 2.5R. My original target was 5R however volume died out and I decided to close and walk with profit. This year I'm going to consistently Over N over N over N over N over again study the 10pt Stop entry here on Crude Oil. On overage Crude Oil will run for +120pts during NY Session. All we need is half of that to eat. (60pts) this is my sweet spot. I'm determined to master it. Added along with better tape reading of the Order Flow Footprint. Let's stay active! Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA)"10pt STOP"NYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Family in this video I went into a gr8 in depth breakdown of a 5-6R trade that took place today during NY session SHORT on Crude OIL. Paying very close attention to the order flow footprint all the while observing very closely how PA is setting up will help us to develop the mastery of the 'Confluence Profile 500K' (Order Flow Footprint + PA) "10pt STOP". Just think about this...... December of 2024 price moved on average of 120pts during NY session. (5am-2pm) PST. -We know we're not going to catch the whole 120pts so were going to focus our attention on cutting that point ratio in half and catch 50-60pts with a 10Pt STOP.... -Granting us 5-6R in our Favor!! Now this is the RISK we face, WE HAVE ONLY 10PTS of pre-determined RISK. So, the 'Confluence Profile 500K' will consist of the (Order Flow Footprint + PA) to give us the highest probability ratio of entering a position with only 10pts to RISK & this is our journey to Master the 10pt STOP w/ a 50-60pt Target!!! Let's go 2 work. Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above the trend line to retest the August high above 76 but trend lines are support/resistance until broken. Neutral because I think it’s too high to buy and too early to short. The close above 73 was really strong though. comment: Bulls with a strong break above the November high and they closed above 73. We are now in a dead zone between 72.35 and 74 (or the area around the bear trend line). We could see a bigger pull-back down to 72 or 71 before we test the bear trend line. Longs in the dead zone are bad trades, no matter how you put it. I do think the breakout is strong enough to wait for pull-backs and go long then. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 74 bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side now but buying this close to the bear trend line is probably unwise. Many bulls will probably want to see a decent pull-back and form a better channel up. Any pull-back should stay above 70/71 though or more could see it as a bull trap like all other highs above 72 were for 3 months now. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears had to give up once market continued above 72.35. Can they hold short and scale in higher with a stop 78? Not really. They will never reach even 1x their risk, so we will probably have to wait and see where the interest in buying vanishes and market stalls. Bears want to start shorting as close to the bear trend line as possible and if we just use the July & October highs, we could go up to 75. Bears really don’t have much here. Best they can hope for is to stall the market below 75 and wait for more bulls to take profits. Invalidation is above 74. short term: Bullish. Buying near the 2h 20ema or most recent bull trend line is reasonable. Targets above are 74 and maybe 75. I will wait for a better pull-back to buy. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Long since 10 a.m. CET. Strong 1h bull bar closing at the high tick and immediate follow through. Market never looked back.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Trading Plan: WTI Crude OilBased on my proprietary indicators, I maintain a bearish view on WTI Crude Oil. I am anticipating a downside target of ₹5800 (target open until 15th January 2025). Current Position: Holding short positions in MCX Crude Oil January 2025 expiry futures from ₹6025 levels. Intend to add more shorts if prices move to higher levels. Risk Management: Stop-loss and risk parameters are carefully planned but not disclosed here for strategic reasons. Position sizing is aligned with my overall risk appetite and trading capital. Disclaimer: This trading plan represents my personal views and trading decisions and is shared for informational purposes only. Trading in crude oil futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should not consider this as financial advice and must conduct their own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Past performance of proprietary indicators is not indicative of future results.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by IndexAce
Crude Oil Price Set for a Pullback - Consider Short Positions Ne Key Insights: Crude Oil prices have been under pressure recently due to oversupply concerns amid a slowdown in global demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in major oil-producing regions, are also creating uncertainty. Current market sentiment tends to lean bearish as economic indicators suggest weakening growth, especially in key markets like China. Traders should be cautious for potential further declines in price as recent patterns indicate a possible reversal. - Price Targets: For short positions, I suggest targeting the following: T1 = 66.50, T2 = 64.00 with stop levels at S1 = 71.50 and S2 = 72.00. This setup reflects a bearish outlook, allowing for a strategic entry while providing ample risk management. - Recent Performance: Crude Oil has experienced a notable decline, with prices falling from recent highs. The current price around 70.65 reflects a significant support level being tested. A continuing downtrend emerged after a brief period of consolidation, suggesting further downside potential. - Expert Analysis: Experts generally believe that Crude Oil faces substantial headwinds. Analysts cite that rising inventories and a lack of significant OPEC+ intervention may exacerbate downward pressure. Market sentiment is largely bearish, with traders expecting more volatility as economic data releases unfold. - News Impact: Recent reports indicate increased production from the U.S. shale sector is contributing to the oversupply scenario. Additionally, investor sentiment has been affected by mixed signals from central banks regarding interest rates, which could impact economic growth and consequently oil demand. Keep an eye on upcoming economic reports and geopolitical developments as they may influence short-term movements in the market.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Supply Glut to Weigh Down on WTI Crude Prices in 2025Outlook for crude oil prices in 2025 is a complex interplay of various factors. China’s fiscal & monetary policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments will collectively sway oil prices. For now, the outlook for 2025 remains bearish. Analysts expect persistent oversupply, driven by rising non-OPEC+ production. Demand growth will remain tepid. T RUMP’S PRO-OIL STANCE TO DRIVE PRICES LOWER Trump’s pro-oil stance is expected to pressure oil prices by increasing US energy production in an already oversupplied market. In his victory speech, Trump vowed to halve energy costs by maximizing domestic US production, calling its reserves “liquid gold.” His plans include expanding drilling on federal lands, easing lease access, and fast-tracking energy infrastructure. In 2023, federal lands accounted for 26% of US oil output. Exploration & production slowed under the Biden administration due to reduced lease sales, higher royalties, and bond requirements. Source: Visual Capitalist & U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Land Management During Trump’s first term, federal land lease issuances averaged 1.62 million acres annually compared to 138k acres under Biden, marking a whopping 91% drop. Trump’s first term saw US oil output rise by a record 3 million bpd, the largest increase under any administration. A second Trump term and a “Drill, Baby, Drill” mantra is expected to boost oil production. US producers require an average oil price of USD 64 a barrel for profitable drilling as per the Dallas Fed Energy Survey . However, reduced regulation, streamlined approvals, tax incentives, & potential reversals of Biden-era policies could lower production costs & encourage more drilling. TRUMP’S TRADE & GEOPOLITICAL POLICIES TO WEIGH DOWN ON OIL PRICES Escalating trade friction risks remain high, as Trump’s tariffs warnings on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China have fuelled uncertainty in global trade. Retaliatory measures, like those seen during 2018, could resurface. Rising supply and shrinking demand will press prices lower. For example, Chinese buyers shunned US crude due to tariff risks, widening the WTI-Brent discount from USD 3/b to over USD 11/b. However, with China’s share of US crude exports dropping from 25% in early 2018 to 7% in June 2024, spread divergence will be less pronounced. Source: ING Research Trump promises to swiftly end the Ukraine-Russia war and reduce tensions in the Middle East. For now, the specifics remain unclear. Success in easing geopolitical risks will significantly reduce the oil market’s “war-risk” premium, potentially driving prices even lower. Conversely, Trump’s staunch support for Israel and a hawkish stance on Iran may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. In his first term, he re-imposed sanctions in 2018 that led to a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports. Under Biden, these sanctions remained but were loosely enforced, allowing Iran to boost output to 3.4m bpd from 2.5m bpd in early 2023. Trump’s return could bring stricter enforcement against Iran, potentially removing 1m bpd from the market. However, with most Iranian exports now directed to China, disrupting these flows may prove challenging. ING analysts expect Iranian supply to stabilize at 3.3m bpd through 2025. OPEC+ REMAINS WARY OF TRUMP’S SECOND TERM OPEC+ in its latest meeting delayed the phased return of 2.2m bpd of supply from January to April and extended some cuts through 2026. While these measures are expected to slightly narrow the surplus production in 2025, continued output growth from non-OPEC+ will weigh on prices. US oil production has surged by 11% between 2022 and 2024 to 21.6m bpd, eroding OPEC+ market share to its record low of 48% in 2024 from 55% in 2016 when the group was formed. OPEC+ fears a further rise in US output under Trump, which could diminish its ability to sustain prices. The extended cuts of OPEC+ in 2025 risk further declines in its market share. Prolonged low prices will shrink OPEC+ producers' oil revenues and increase the risk of disagreements within the cartel. Disagreements will result in OPEC members supplying more crude in breach of their production cuts. CHINA SHIFTING AWAY FROM CRUDE WITH WIDESPREAD EV & LNG TRUCK ADOPTION Deflationary pressures, persistent property market crisis and a rapid shift to EVs & LNG trucks are dampening crude demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer. It has been the key driver of global demand growth for two decades. According to China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI), Chinese oil demand is projected to peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025. This is driven by growing adoption of EV, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail. Sluggish oil demand in China has led the EIA, IEA, and OPEC to lower their global oil demand forecasts several times. In December, OPEC revised its 2024 forecast downward for the fifth consecutive time. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Rising non-OPEC+ production & tepid demand are expected to amplify an oversupplied oil market in 2025, putting downward pressure on prices. Donald Trump’s energy policies are likely to exacerbate this imbalance further widening the gap between supply and demand. Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them a more accessible and flexible option for traders, enabling more granular hedging. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in March 2025 (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 70.50/barrel • Target: 65.70/barrel • Stop: 72.00/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +480 ((70.50 – 65.70) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -150 ((70.50 – 72.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLH2025Short
by mintdotfinance
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames) key levels for 2025: 65 - 75 short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3 medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*. current swing trade: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Strategy & New Group Trading ConceptHanging out chatting about next year's trade desk business goals. I'm a firm believer that a good trader is just as valuable as the assets that they trade. Learning how to simplify trading is the first step to building a reliable strategy. There are a few areas of fund management that are hidden from everyday traders because it does not apply to non-financial professionals. For starters I've got this idea to start the 'seaside connection' . I've met many different types of traders. Some of which have profitable strategies, copiers, and some who gamble. What if we found a balance? I have a track for all of these people. The goal is to add more value to your time on the desk. so if your trading 100 - 100,000 does not make a difference. Strats (protected) can be copied without requesting private proprietary information about what & how it works. Purely focused on results. Non-Strats (Train & Trade): Learn how to apply my strategy to markets. Literally, you focus on your market timing, force, and fundamentals. Gamblers: Learn how to protect your punting with risk to reward strategies that reduce your risk or blow up your account in style lol. Just kidding, but you should know that the majority of traders are not trading, they are gambling. I'm not here to turn atheist into believers, but soon enough, the markets will. Investors: You look down on us traders at times. This is okay, because without us you have no one to blame when your 3 month outlook shifts. You need us, because we provide you with near term returns. Our strategies will be packaged in PAMM / MAMM funds for you to take advantage of as a hedge to that longterm underlying position you've got working since last year!
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by moneymagnateash
2
CRUDEOIL - Symmetrical triangle breakout on the horizonCrude Oil Update (4-Hour Timeframe) Chart Overview: Crude Oil is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with both lower highs and higher lows converging, signaling potential for a breakout soon. The price has rejected the upper trendline (around 5895) multiple times, highlighting it as a critical resistance level. EMA Analysis: The price is hovering near the 55 EMA (5836), indicating indecision. A close above this EMA could push the price higher. Trading Plan: Entry Long: Above 5900 Target 1 - 6002 Target 2 - 6138 Entry Short: Below 5744 Target 1 - 5450 Target 2 - 5500 Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions. Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5