Weekly copper market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1540 per pound. As the Dollar dropped sharply this week, the DXY rose from 94.09236 at the end of last week.
The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 50 million cases worldwide and more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants.
Last week, the October Caixin manufacturing PMI, representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected, above 50 for the 6th month in a row, confirming the recovery of the Chinese manufacturing sector . Euro zone manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and U.S. manufacturing PMI was at 53.4.
In Chile, cumulative copper production up to September was up +0.4% to 4.26 million tonnes. Chile is the world's largest copper producer.
Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT, below the five-year average.
In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on 20 January 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the moment, but there will be a second round in Georgia on 05 January. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI was at 53.4. Euro-zone retail sales were -2.00% compared with +4.2% in August.
- On Saturday, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, while imports disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected.
- Tuesday, inflation in China, the ZEW index of economic sentiment in the Euro zone.
- Thursday, inflation and US unemployment registrations, industrial production in the Euro zone.
- Friday, Euro-zone GDP and Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange, are up to 172450 MT from 171300 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 131321 for 139657 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 73568 MT from 72357 previously.
- Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT compared to 383,314 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy.
Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply.
On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 61.638 K instead of 66.916 K.
