2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Confirmation is only above 74.7. Tough spot right now. I would not be surprised if Globex starts the pump early. Decent chance we see 76 tomorrow and 78 on Friday. Bears would surprise me below 71 and I do think we would see an even bigger flush below that price.
comment : Yeah I know, oil again. Market is moving the most currently so embrace the volatility. I make it short today. 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Market could retest 77, so 300+ ticks higher from here. If you would long this now, stop is either 69.8 or 71.5. Both are reasonable. Confirmation for the bulls is above 74.75.
current market cycle: strongest bull trend
key levels: 70 - 80
bull case: Bulls see the 3 legs down and a 200 tick buy from the lows. Next they want follow through to break above the bear channel and they know, bears will have their stops between 74.5 and 74.7. Above is no good resistance until 77 again. On the daily chart we can also see bulls bought the daily 20ema almost to the tick and the bull channel now looks proper. Enough reasons why a long now is a decent trade.
Invalidation is below 71.5.
bear case: Bears had a gigantic pullback and now 2 bigger tails below the daily bars. Are they gonna fight this or do they think they made almost 700 ticks from the highs and it’s probably reversing soon? If you look at the daily chart, you can not come to the conclusion that you want to short 73.35 right now. If we somehow manage to get below 71.5, the bulls case is probably dead but market would likely be more neutral than bearish.
Invalidation is above 74.7.
short term: Bullish with stop 71.5.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through.
current swing trade: Long 73.28, stop 70.5. Target 77 or higher.
trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
