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CRUDEOIL1! trade ideas

OIL Bullish BiasCurrently sitting on my hands but closely watching oil, especially after Iran & Israel Consolidation Protocol active. Need to see external range taken. I will not trade inside this range. Favoring longs. Think accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Right now its in the accumulation phase. Manipulation phase is next. Preferably sweeping external low first then distribution higher to bsl. Relative equal highs / LRLR at 114.29 first long term target. Final target are the inefficiencies at 130 - 150.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CEOTraders
Crude Oil Testing $75 Resistance with Key Price Movements Targets: - T1 = $78.00 - T2 = $80.50 Stop Levels: - S1 = $74.00 - S2 = $72.50 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil. **Key Insights:** Crude Oil has been holding strong amid mixed macroeconomic data, with traders noting resilience around the $75 price level acting as a key support. Recent production cuts by OPEC+ have further tightened supply, providing support for bullish sentiment. Dollar weakness also boosts commodity prices, as global markets eye policy decisions from central banks. Additionally, technical indicators suggest upward momentum is building. RSI levels are nearing overbought zones but remain favorable for a continued upward push. Moving averages show upward crossover patterns, signaling strong bullish possibilities. **Recent Performance:** Crude Oil has seen fluctuating performance over the last month, with prices rebounding from lows of $72 and climbing steadily to current levels. A temporary pullback earlier in the week was followed by renewed buying interest, demonstrating the strength of underlying bullish sentiment despite volatile macroeconomic conditions. **Expert Analysis:** Industry analysts highlight that geopolitical risks and tightening supply conditions could lead to further upward price pressure. The $75.13 level corresponds to a critical juncture that traders are closely watching for breakouts. A breach above this level would likely signal further upside momentum, potentially reaching the $80 mark as broader optimism prevails. **News Impact:** Recent news surrounding OPEC+ production strategies and lower inventories in key storage hubs like Cushing have contributed to bullish sentiment. Simultaneously, macroeconomic factors — including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve remarks — are influencing crude oil’s directional moves, albeit in a secondary role. **Trading Recommendation:** A bullish position is recommended on Crude Oil as it continues to show potential for a breakout above current resistance levels. Traders should aim for targets of $78.00 and $80.50, using stop-loss orders at $74.00 and $72.50 to mitigate downside risks. Current technical setups and macroeconomic signals support upward momentum, making this a favorable opportunity for disciplined trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
WTI(20250620)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, and the voting ratio showed that internal differences were increasing. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 74.33 Support and resistance levels: 77.40 76.25 75.51 73.15 72.40 71.26 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 73.15, consider buying, and the first target price is 75.00 If it breaks through 72.40, consider selling, and the first target price is 71.26
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today. Fundamental analysis: The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil Pushing Into Supply Zone — Watching for Breakout or ReCrude Oil (CL) has been trending strongly bullish today — price is now testing the red supply zone overhead. I am watching very closely: ✅ If buyers can break this zone with strong momentum, I will look for a breakout continuation trade to ride the trend higher. ✅ If buyers get trapped and order flow shifts bearish inside this zone, I will look for a short opportunity targeting the green demand zone below. Important: I always study buyer and seller behavior inside the zones first — no blind trades! I also use order flow tools to catch traps and spot aggressive traders on the wrong side of the move. Patience first — waiting for the zone to tell me what to do. ✅
NYMEX:CL1!
by prolivetrader
Geopolitical Oil Shocks May Be Short-Lived and Prices May Fall Crude oil prices are climbing by over 1% today across both Brent and West Texas Intermediate, approaching their highest levels since January. These gains are driven by rising concerns over the fallout from a potential escalation in the Israel–Iran war, especially with the prospect of direct U.S. military involvement that could widen the conflict and threaten oil supplies from the Middle East. Talks are intensifying around a possible U.S. strategic bomber strike on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility. Such a move would mark a dangerous new phase of escalation, raising the risk of supply disruptions from key oil-exporting countries via the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to several analysts and opinion columnists . Iran’s major oil export facilities may also be pulled into the conflict sooner rather than later. Any attack on these energy assets could trigger a price shock that sends oil soaring toward $130 per barrel, according to estimates from JPMorgan . The first step toward this new phase of escalation may not be far off, as former President Trump appears unshaken by potential consequences—the include regional instability to possible retaliatory attacks on U.S. and allied interests abroad. According to Axios , he is doubtful about the effectiveness of the bunker-busting bombs intended for a Fordow strike. Even without such a strike, a prolonged conflict with little hope for a diplomatic resolution would likely increase the vulnerability of global oil flows, as reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. However, such disruptions are expected to remain short-term, in my opinion. In the longer run, this war is unlikely to be sustainable in its current form. Israel is reportedly facing a dwindling supply of interceptor missiles, with reserves potentially lasting just 12 more days at the current rate of Iranian rocket fire, according to experts cited by The Washington Post . The Journal also quoted a U.S. official who mentioned a decline in Israel’s supply of Arrow missiles used to intercept ballistic threats. In my view, Israel will likely avoid reaching such a tipping point unless it achieves a decisive turning point in the conflict, whether through sidelining U.S. involvement or toppling Iran’s regime. If neither is achieved, Israel may resort to targeting Iran’s oil and gas export infrastructure to enforce a surrender. This action that could send oil prices into shock in the coming days. A drawn-out war in its current form is unsustainable for either side. Still, a diplomatic solution is not entirely off the table. A senior Iranian foreign ministry official told the New York Times that Tehran may accept Trump’s offer to meet soon for a potential ceasefire discussion. Such developments could reduce the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil and potentially push U.S. crude back below $70 per barrel. In any case, I believe any shock to oil prices would likely be temporary, as major producers are generally capable of offsetting short-term supply disruptions unless we enter into extreme scenarios, as noted by the Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board earlier this week. On another front, oil prices are also under increasing pressure from concerns around prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday disappointed markets, striking a more hawkish and cautious tone than before on interest rate cuts. Policymakers have grown increasingly wary of inflation risks, particularly with the renewed trade war and rising geopolitical tensions, which could potentially push inflation above 3 percent again. Such extended tightening could weigh further on economic growth or even trigger a recession, dragging down oil demand and keeping prices on a downward trajectory. Monetary tightening risks also overlap with persistent negative signals from China. Despite improvements in retail sales and declining unemployment, both industrial production and fixed-asset investment slowed unexpectedly in May. Goldman Sachs also expects continued weakness in China’s housing market, which could remain at just a quarter of its 2017 peak level for years to come. Should trade negotiations between the U.S. and China fail, both economies and oil prices could face further downward pressure. Samer Hasn
NYMEX:CL1!
by SamerHa
WTI(20250619)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Fed's June meeting - kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row, and the dot plot showed two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expected no rate cuts this year rose to 7, and the rate cut expectations for next year were cut to 1. Powell continued to call for uncertainty, and the current economic situation is suitable for waiting and watching. He also expects tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 72.69 Support and resistance levels: 75.60 74.51 73.81 71.58 70.88 69.79 Trading strategy: Upward breakthrough of 73.81, consider entering the market to buy, the first target price is 74.51 Downward breakthrough of 72.69, consider entering the market to sell, the first target price is 71.58
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
What Is the Base Price for Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well. I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?” My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume. WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options Ticker: MCL Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil Futures: Navigating Geopolitical Risk and VolatilityMarket Context: NYMEX:CL1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME:6E1! Implied volatility (IV) in the front weeks (1W and 2W) is elevated, and the futures curve is in steep backwardation. This indicates heightened short-term uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. The forward curve, however, suggests the market is not fully pricing in sustained or escalating conflict. We evaluate three possible geopolitical scenarios and their implications for the Crude Oil Futures market: Scenario 1: Ceasefire Within 1–2 Weeks • Market Implication: Short-term geopolitical premium deflates. • Strategy: Short front-month / Long deferred-month crude oil calendar spread. o This position benefits from a reversion in front-month prices once the risk premium collapses, while deferred months—already pricing more stable conditions—remain anchored. o Risk: If the ceasefire fails to materialize within this narrow window, front-month prices could spike further, causing losses. Scenario 2: Prolonged War of Attrition (No Ceasefire, Ongoing Missile and Air War) • Market Implication: Front-end volatility may ease slightly but remain elevated; deferred contracts may begin to price in more geopolitical risk. • Strategy: Long back-month crude oil futures. o The market is currently underpricing forward-looking risk premiums. A persistent conflict, even without full-scale escalation, may eventually force the market to adjust deferred pricing upward. o Risk: Time decay and roll costs. Requires a longer holding horizon and conviction that the situation remains unresolved and volatile. Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War • Market Implication: Severe market dislocation, illiquidity, potential for capital flight, and broad-based risk-off sentiment across global assets. • Strategy: Avoid initiating directional exposure in crude. Focus on risk management and capital preservation. o In this tail-risk scenario, crude oil could spike sharply, but slippage, execution risk, and potential exchange halts or liquidity freezes make it unsuitable for new exposure. o Alternative Focus: Allocate to volatility strategies, defensive hedging (e.g., long Gold, long VIX futures), and cash equivalents. o Risk: Sudden market shutdowns or gaps may make exit strategies difficult to execute. Broader Portfolio Considerations Given the crude oil dynamics, there are knock-on effects across other markets: • Gold Futures: Flight-to-safety bid in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positioning in Gold (spot or near-month futures) with defined stop-loss levels is prudent as a hedge. • Equity Index Futures (E-mini Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500): Vulnerable to risk-off flows in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long volatility (VIX calls or long VX futures) or equity index puts as portfolio hedges. In Scenario 1, equities could rally on resolution optimism—especially growth-heavy Nasdaq. • Currency Futures: USD likely to strengthen as a safe haven in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long positions in Dollar and Short 6E futures. • Bond Futures: Risk-off flows theoretically should support Treasuries in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positions in 10Y or 30Y Treasury futures could serve as a defensive allocation. Yields may retrace sharply lower if escalation intensifies. However, given the current paradigm shift with elevated yields, higher for longer rates and long end remaining high, we would not bet too heavily on Bond futures to act as safe haven. Instead, inflows in Gold, strengthening of Chinese Yuan and Bitcoin will be key to monitor here. Scenario-based planning is essential when markets are pricing geopolitical risk in a non-linear fashion. Crude oil currently reflects a consensus expectation of de-escalation (Scenario 1), which opens the door for relative value and mean-reversion strategies in the front-end of the curve. However, given the asymmetric risks in Scenarios 2 and 3, prudent exposure management, optionality-based hedges, and a flexible risk framework are imperative. A diversified playbook; leveraging volatility structures, calendar spreads, and cross-asset hedges offers the best path to opportunity while managing downside risk.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
WADZ & the Petrodollar RevivalGlobal FX Shift: The Rise of WADZ (2025–2026) In mid-2025, a war between Iran and Israel spirals fast. Iran strikes hard, Israel’s defenses go offline from cyberattacks, and the U.S. surprisingly doesn’t intervene. Instead, America steps in quietly, setting up a “peacekeeping” zone along the Jordan-Israel border. It’s called the West Asia Demilitarized Zone (WADZ) — but behind the scenes, it’s about control, not peace. Oil jumps to $115. Markets flip. USD/JPY and USD/TRY spike. EUR/USD slides. Then the U.S. launches WZ-Digital, a USD-backed oil coin. Now, all oil in the region trades through America. OPEC fractures. Saudi and UAE fall in line. China gets iced out. USD/CNY shoots past 8.30. In the desert, a secret U.S. city appears: The Watchtower — a hub that manages oil, data, and borders. Regional FX Snapshot (2026) Europe: Gas crisis deepens. EUR/USD drops to 0.95. East Europe leans on U.S. China: Crypto-oil push fails. Capital flight triggers USD/CNY → 8.80. Russia: Oil-for-yuan helps short-term, but ruble stays shaky. Africa: Egypt & Morocco adopt WZ-Digital. Local currencies stay weak. Southeast Asia: Dual oil trade (USD/WZ). SGD steady, MYR & IDR choppy. (BRICKS+) Latin America: Brazil, Argentina resist — then cave. USD demand surges. Bottom Line: By end of 2026, USD isn’t just money — it’s a global system. WADZ quietly reprograms the rules of energy and trade. No invasion, no headlines. Just quiet, total control. Bye guys
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by MalaysiaDPR
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00Crude oil market analysis: Last week's crude oil was very exaggerated because it broke the super suppression of 65.00 on the daily line. Once this position was broken, crude oil began to be standard. This is also the result of our many predictions of the cycle. Crude oil purchases will continue to soar this week. In addition, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will make it difficult for crude oil to fall in the short term. I estimate that there is a possibility of repair. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. In addition, the delivery period of crude oil futures contracts will also cause it to fluctuate violently again. Fundamental analysis: There are many fundamental analyses and data recently. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors